Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 0.9661

Original strategy :

Sold at 0.9680, Target: 0.9580, Stop: 0.9715

Position : - Short at 0.9680

Target :  - 0.9580

Stop : - 0.9715

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 0.9680, Target: 0.9580, Stop: 0.9705

Position : - Short at 0.9680

Target :  - 0.9580

Stop : - 0.9705

Although the greenback has jumped again in NY morning and rose briefly above 0.9700 level, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for test of support at 0.9618 but break there is needed to signal an intra-day top is formed, bring weakness to 0.8584 support, break there would provide confirmation, bring subsequent fall towards the lower Kumo (now at 0.9552).

In view of this, we are inclined to turn short on further subsequent rise. Above said resistance at 0.9705 would extend gain to 0.9725-30 but still reckon upside would be limited and 0.9761-66 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0100-0.9421 and previous resistance) should hold, risk remains for another retreat to take place soon.

GBP/USD - 1.3356

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.3285, stopped at 1.3320

Position : - Short at 1.3285

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.3320

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite intra-day brief drop to 1.3153, lack of follow through selling on break of support at 1.3161 and the subsequent rally signal recent upmove is still in progress and further gain towards 1.3400 cannot be ruled out, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3430-40 and reckon 1.3470-75 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.3300-05 would bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3263) but break there is needed to signal an intra-day top is formed, bring weakness to 1.3230-35, however, downside should be limited to 1.3195-00. 

EUR/USD - 1.1888

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.1855, Target:1.1955, Stop: 1.1820

Position : - Long at 1.1855

Target :  - 1.1955

Stop : - 1.1820

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.1855, Target:1.1955, Stop: 1.1835

Position : - Long at 1.1855

Target :  - 1.1955

Stop : - 1.1835

As the single currency slipped again in NY morning and dropped to as low as 1.1838, as euro found support there and has rebounded, retaining our near term bullishness and as long as said support holds, mild upside bias remains for another bounce to previous support at 1.1926, however, break above there is needed to signal an intraday low is formed, brig further gain to 1.1950-55 and then 1.1975-80 but price should falter below yesterday’s high at 1.1995.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.1855. Below said support at 1.1838 would signal recent decline from 1.2093 top is still in progress and may extend weakness to 1.1823 support, however, still reckon downside would be limited to 1.1800 and bring rebound later.

USD/JPY - 110.61

Original strategy  :

Buy at 109.65, Target: 110.65, Stop: 109.30

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 109.65, Target: 110.65, Stop: 109.30

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after this week’s rally, suggesting bullishness remains for the rise from 107.32 low to extend further gain towards 111.10-15, however, break there is needed to retain upside bias and encourage for headway to 111.40, having said that, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond another previous resistance at 111.71, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on subsequent pullback as 109.50-60 should limit upside. Below previous resistance at 109.40 would risk test of the lower Kumo (now at 109.33) but only break there would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring weakness to 109.00 first.

The Canadian dollar continues to show limited movement in the Thursday session. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2204, up 0.25% on the day. On the release front, inflation indicators are the focus on both sides of the border. In Canada, the New Housing Price Index gained 0.4%, above the forecast of 0.3%. Over in the US, CPI and Core CPI both improved in August. CPI gained 0.4%, edging above the forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI gained 0.2%, matching the forecast. There was more good news from the labor market, as unemployment claims fell to 284 thousand, well below the forecast of 303 thousand.

Early in the year, the Federal Reserve was full of optimism that a strong US economy would warrant three rate hikes during in 2017. The economy has generally performed well, but the US continues to grapple with weak inflation levels. A strong labor market has not helped push inflation higher, as wage growth remains soft. Fed policymakers have retreated from their earlier optimistic forecasts, and have been counseling caution and patience regarding rate increases. As for a December hike, the odds have been below 50% for months. Currently, the odds are pegged at 46%, which is an improvement from last week. However, the positive August CPI data could be a sign that at long last, inflation is moving in the right direction. If the markets feel this is the case, the odds of a December hike should increase.

The Canadian dollar has enjoyed an impressive run, as the currency has jumped 2.7% against the greenback in September. Oil prices have remained close to $50, and stronger economic growth led the BoC to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week, from 0.75% to 1.00%. The rate hike caught the markets by surprise, and sent USD/CAD down to a 2-year low. However, Canada is heavily reliant on its export sector, and the downside of a strong Canadian dollar is that it makes the country's exports more expensive. Still, Canadian finance minister Bill Morneau said on Tuesday that he had no problem with a higher Canadian dollar, as a strong currency was reflective of a strong economy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.49; (P) 146.08; (R1) 146.51; More

GBP/JPY's rise from 139.29 extends to as high as 148.11 so far and it's testing 147/76/42 resistance zone. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 148.42 will confirm resumption of medium term rebound from 122.36. GBP/JPY should then target 150.43 fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 145.15 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise is expected even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the sideway pattern from 148.42 is still unfolding. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Medium term rise from 122.36 is expected to resume later. And break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. However, firm break of 135.58/39 will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 122.36 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8973; (P) 0.9006; (R1) 0.9029; More

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.9305 extends to as low as 0.8877 and breaks 38.2% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 at 0.8926. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Fall from 0.9305 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation from 0.9304. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8691 and below. On the upside, above 0.8981 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it is finished yet. But in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes. Firm break of 0.9799 high will target 61.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9596; (P) 0.9628; (R1) 0.9673; More....

USD/CHF breaches 0.9679 resistance but failed to sustain so far. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Below 0.9582 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9420 low first. Sustained break of 0.9420 will resume whole decline from 1.0342. However, firm break of 0.9679 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.9772 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.02; (P) 110.36; (R1) 110.81; More...

At this point, USD/JPY cannot sustain above 110.66 resistance yet. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 110.66. Below 109.29 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.31. Break of 107.31 will extend the whole fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 first. We'd look for support from there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 110.66 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1840; (P) 1.1917 (R1) 1.1962; More...

EUR/USD's pull back from 1.2091 extends further lower in early US session. But it's staying above 1.1822 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bullish for another rally. Above 1.1994 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.2091 resistance first. Break will extend larger rise from 1.0339 and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1822 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.1661 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.