Sample Category Title

USDJPY (109.63): The USDJPY was seen bouncing off the price level near 109.15. Price action has been showing strong consolidation at this level for the past five trading sessions. This could suggest a near term breakout to the upside. However, resistance at 110.72 is likely to cap any gains. USDJPY could, therefore, be seen trading within the current range of 110.72 and 109.15. The newly drawn falling trend line will be in focus as a breakout above this level is required to maintain the gains.

GBPUSD (1.2809): The British pound closed with a doji pattern yesterday below the support level of 1.2874. Price action could see a short-term reversal if the British pound manages to close back above this support. A retest back to 1.3033 cannot be ruled out if the retracement begins. On the 4-hour chart, the support level remains in focus. Any short term gains could see GBPUSD retest this level for resistance which will keep the bias to the downside. The next main support level is seen at 1.2628

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting doji
    •    Time of formation: 01 May 2017
    •    Trend bias: Sideways

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing
    •    Time of formation: 5 May 2017
    •    Trend bias: Down



USD/CAD – 1.2536




As the retreat from 1.2778 has kept the greenback under pressure, suggesting the correction from 1.2414 has possibly ended and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.2450-55, however, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to signal view and signal recent decline has resumed for retest of 1.2414. Looking ahead, once this support is penetrated, this would confirm resumption of early downtrend to 1.2350-60 and later towards 1.2300 but price should stay well above 1.2240-50, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later. 

On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.2550-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2649) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Above 1.2700-10 would defer and risk another bounce towards said resistance at 1.2778, having said that, only break of this level would abort and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2810-20 but price should falter below previous support at 1.2859 (now resistance) and bring another decline later. Looking ahead, only a sustained breach above this level would signal a temporary low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to the lower Kumo (now at 1.2875), then 1.2900-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 1.3015, bring another selloff later. 

Recommendation: Sell at 1.2640 for 1.2440 with stop above 1.2740.

On the weekly chart, as the greenback met resistance at 1.2778 and has retreated, suggesting the rebound from 1.2414 has possibly ended there and retest of said support cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to confirm the selloff from 1.4690 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2300-10 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2240-50 and price should stay above 1.2175 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0621-1.4690), risk from there is seen for another corrective rebound to take place later.

On the upside, whilst minor recovery to 1.2640-50 cannot be ruled out, price should falter below 1.2700-10 and bring another decline later. A break of said resistance at 1.2778 would prolong consolidation above 1.2414 and risk a stronger corrective bounce to 1.2805-10 resistance, then test of previous support at 1.2859 (now resistance), above there would suggest a temporary low has been formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2900, then towards resistance at 1.2944 but upside should be limited to psychological level at 1.3000 and price should falter below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3104), bring another selloff in late Q3.

EURUSD (1.1796): The EURUSD was trading subdued with price action quite limited. However, the common currency is seen holding up near the 1.1800 level. This tight price action could potentially signal a breakout in the near term. While price action continues to trade in the ascending triangle pattern, there is also a potential inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern forming near the top. Neckline resistance is seen at 1.1825 on the 4-hour chart. A breakout above this level could potentially push EURUSD to the upside, initially to test the previous resistance at 1.1882. Further gains can be expected on a breakout above this level.

The ECB President Mario Draghi and the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium today. Remarks on monetary policy, from both the central bankers, are expected to be the major market moving events today. However, the risk of not addressing monetary policy also looms which could keep the markets in check.

On the economic front, the UK's second revised estimate was released yesterday. Data from ONS showed that the GDP advanced 0.3% in the second quarter. However, business investment was seen to be flat, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. In the US existing home sales rose 5.44 million, slower than the month before.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the US durable goods orders and the German Ifo business climate.

EUR/USD - 1.1779

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1789

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1794

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1794

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1782

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.1765, Target: 1.1865, Stop: 1.1770

Position : - Long at 1.1765

Target :  - 1.1865

Stop : - 1.1770

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.1765, Target: 1.1865, Stop: 1.1770

Position : - Long at 1.1765

Target :  - 1.1865

Stop : - 1.1770

Euro’s retreat after faltering below resistance at 1.1828 suggests caution on our bullishness and minor consolidation would be seen, however, as long as 1.1765-70 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 1.1828 would extend the rise from 1.1662 low to resistance at 1.1847, break there would provide confirmation that the pullback from 1.1910 has ended and encourage for headway to 1.1870-80 but reckon said resistance at 1.1910 would hold from here. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.1765. Only below 1.1740 support would abort and suggest the rebound from 1.1662 has ended instead, risk weakness to 1.1695-00 first. 

USD/CHF - 0.9660

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9654

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9644

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9663

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9663

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.9620, Target: 0.9720, Stop: 0.9585

Position : - Long at 0.9620

Target :  - 0.9720

Stop : - 0.9585

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 0.9620, Target: 0.9720, Stop: 0.9595

Position : - Long at 0.9620

Target :  - 0.9720

Stop : - 0.9595

Although the greenback retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.9699, outlook remains consolidative and reckon yesterday’s low at 0.9620 would limit downside, bring another rebound later, above indicated resistance at 0.9699 would signal the fall from 0.9766 has ended at 0.9586 last week and mild upside bias is seen for gain to 0.9720, then 0.9740, having said that, reckon resistance at 0.9766-73 would cap upside and bring further consolidation. Only a break of 0.9773 would retain bullishness and signal early rise from 0.9438 has resumed and extend gain to 0.9800.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.9620. Below 0.9600 would risk test of strong support at 0.9583-86 but only break there would signal a downside break of recent broad range has occurred, bring subsequent fall to 0.9550.

GBP/USD - 1.2804

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2805

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2806

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2838

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2799

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2760, Target: 1.2860, Stop: 1.2725

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2755, Target: 1.2855, Stop: 1.2720

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has retreated again after meeting resistance at 1.2837, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for recent selloff to extend one more fall, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2750-55, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place soon, above 1.2845-50 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring a stronger recovery to 1.2870, break there would add credence to this view, then retracement of recent decline would commence for further gain to 1.2900.

In view of this, we are inclined to turn long on next decline. Below 1.2740-50 would risk weakness to 1.2720-25, however, still reckon downside would be limited to 1.2700-05 (100% projection of 1.3269-1.2940 measuring from 1.3032) and risk from there remains for another rebound to take place later.

USD/JPY - 109.65

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.64

Kijun-Sen level                  : 109.43

Ichimoku cloud top             : 109.34

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 109.13

New strategy  :

Buy at 109.25, Target: 110.25, Stop: 108.90

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback found renewed buying interest at 108.84 yesterday and staged another rebound, suggesting a test of resistance at 109.83 (this week’s high) would be seen, break there would signal low has been formed at 108.60 earlier, bring further gain to 110.00 and later towards previous resistance at 110.37 which is likely to hold on first testing due to near term overbought condition.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar on dips as 109.20-25 should limit downside. Only below said support at 108.84 would abort and bring retest of said support at 108.60, break there would revive bearishness and confirm recent decline has resumed for further weakness to 108.30 (1.618 times projection of 110.95-109.67 measuring from 110.37), then towards 108.00.

Asia Summary

Asian equities have been fairly quiet as traders await the Jackson Hole comments from the Fed’s Yellen and ECB’s Draghi. Earnings reports were seen from Qantas and Rusal. Shares of Samsung Electronics are little changed ahead of the expected court ruling in the corruption case involving Lee Jae-yong, who is viewed as the head of the Samsung conglomerate.

Key economic data

(JP) JAPAN JULY NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.5%E

(JP) Japan Aug Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.3%e; CPI Ex-Fresh Food (core) Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3%e

(JP) JAPAN JUL PPI SERVICES Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.8%E

(KR) South Korea Aug Consumer Confidence: 109.9 v 111.2 prior

Speakers and Press

China

(CN) China NDRC: Urges steel sector to continue cutting overcapacity; to promote steel companies M&A in some regions; To increase effective steel supply to avoid market volatility.

Japan

(JP) Japan Government Official: Will consider reflecting discount smart-phone carrier charges in CPI data starting Jan next year at the earliest

(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Economy not in situation now that requires extra budget; To impose additional sanctions against North Korea

Other

(US) Fed's Kaplan (moderate, voter): Has not lost faith inflation will get back to 2%; Does not favor raising 2% inflation target

(PH) Philippines Central Bank Gov Espenilla: Allowed peso to adjust moderately and gradually, but BSP in firm control of peso (PHP) exchange rate; Reiterates confident peso won't go on 'free fall', definitely not in 'fx crisis'

(VE) Venezuela President Maduro names Del Pino as Oil Minister and Nelson Martinez as President of PDVSA

(VE) Under possible US sanctions, Venezuela’s bonds could be removed from the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index – US financial press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:30ET)

Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%, ASX200 +0.3%, Kospi +0.1%

Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq +0.1 , Dax flat , FTSE100 flat

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:30ET)

EUR 1.1788-1.1804; JPY 109.50-109.77; AUD 0.7885-0.7907; NZD 0.7198-0.7218

Aug Gold flat at 1,291/oz; Aug Crude Oil +0.6% at $47.72/brl; Sept Copper -0.1% at $3.03/lb

GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings unchanged at 799.3 metric tons

(CN) China PBoC skips OMO v skipped 7 and 14-day reverse repo prior (2nd straight); Net drain CNY130B, drains net of CNY330B for week

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.6579 V 6.6525 PRIOR

(JP) BoJ announces amounts to buy in QE operation; Cuts planned purchases of 5-10 yr JGBs to ¥410B from ¥440B prior

(AU) Australia sells A$600M in 1.75% 2020 Bonds, avg yield 1.9962%, bid to cover 5.75x

Equities notable movers

Australia

Qantas, QAN.AU, FY17 profits in line and announced dividend and buyback; +2.5%

Sims Metal, SGM.AU FY17 EBITDA above ests and declared a special dividend; +5%

Super Retail Group, SUL.AU FY17 profits rose; +8%

Hong Kong/China

Li & Fung, 494.HK H1 profits rose by 40% and above ests; +14.5%

PetroChina, 857.HK H1 profits above estimates; +3.5%

Rusal, 486.HK Q2 results above ests; -0.9%

US markets on close: Dow -0.1%, S&P500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell +0.3%

Best Sector in S&P500: Health Care +0.3%

Worst Sector in S&P500: Consumer Staples -1.4% (Amazon closed acquisition of Whole Foods and announced expected price cuts)

At the close: VIX 12.23 (-0.02 pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.338% (+3bps), 10-yr 2.196% (+3bps), 30-yr 2.769% (+2bps)

US Market Summary

Investors continued to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Major indices all posted moderate losses again in light trading, with a counter trend for small caps, as the Russell gained 4 points. Crude oil turned south again with a lack of new factors to prop-up price, while gasoline prices rose in advance of Hurricane Harvey. The WTI/gasoline crack spread surged as the predicted path of Harvey aims the storm at refiners, avoiding oil production platforms. Gold continued to hold its ground with low volatility and closing just short of $1,290. Treasuries took some selling pressure today with 10-year yield gaining 2.5 bps, back up at 2.19%, 10s30s curve spread steady at 58 bps.

US Afterhours Movers

ADMS FDA approves GOCOVRI as first and only medication for the treatment of Dyskinesia in Parkinson’s Disease patients; +35.4% afterhours

SPLK Reports Q2 $0.08 v $0.06e, Rev $280M v $268Me; Guides Q3 R$307-309M v $306Me, Non-GAAP op margin 8%; +8% afterhours

AVGO Reports Q3 $4.10 v $4.03e, Rev $4.46B v $4.46Be; Guides Q4 Rev $4.80B +/- $75M v $4.75Be, non-GAAP gross margin 63.0% +/- 1%; -4.2% afterhours

GME Reports Q2 $0.15 v $0.16e, Rev $1.69B v $1.62Be; SSS +1.9% (-1.4% in US, +3.4% internationally); -7.9% afterhours

VEEV Reports Q2 $0.25 v $0.20e, Rev $166.6M v $164Me (1 est.); Guides Q3 $0.21-0.22 v $0.21e, Rev $171-172M v $171Me; -8.4% afterhours

UEPS Reports Q4 $0.20 v $0.44e, Rev $155M v $173Me; Guides initial FY18 EPS at least $1.61 v $1.85e; -11.5% afterhours