Sample Category Title
GBPUSD: Risk Points Higher On Trend Resumption
GBPUSD: The pair continues to retain its upside threats though with caution. Support lies at the 1.3100 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3050 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3000 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2950 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3200 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3300 level followed by the 1.3350 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face upside risk though with caution.
NZD/USD is this a Valid Breakout?
NZD/USD touched new highs today, has climbed as much as 0.7557 level, much above the 0.7528 yesterday's high, but failed to stay there and now is challenging the third warning line (WL3). Only a valid breakout above this line will confirm a further increase in the upcoming period, we may have a buying opportunity if will close above the WL3 and if will come back to retest the 0.7484 level. A selling opportunity will appear if will slip and will stabilize below the 0.7484 static support.
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.3085
GBP/USD - 1.3133
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.3085, Target: 1.3185, Stop: 1.3050
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 1.3085, Target: 1.3185, Stop: 1.3050
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Cable found decent demand just below 1.3000 level and has rallied on back of dollar’s broad-based selloff, signal recent upmove is still in progress and upside bias is seen for further gain to 1.3160, then 1.3185-90, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3210-20 and price should falter below 1.3240-50, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy sterling on subsequent pullback as previous resistance at 1.3084 should turn into support and contain cable’s downside, bring another rise. Below 1.3050 would risk weakness to 1.3030-35 but break of latter level is needed to signal top is formed, then correction to 1.2999 support would follow.
AUD/USD Rejected by Dynamic Resistance
Price increased sharply after the FOMC and jumped much above the first warning line (wl1) of the minor ascending pitchfork, but found strong resistance at the 150% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line). Is pressuring the wl1, a retest of this level followed by a decrease will open the door for a decline towards the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork. Support can be found also at the 0.7989 level and much lower at 0.7874 static downside obstacle.
USD/JPY Undecided
Price has posted important gains in the last hours and is trying to stay higher as the USDX has managed to erase the morning gains and to recover after the morning sell-off. The dollar index is trading in the green ahead of the US data release, remains to see how will react after the reports will be published, another disappointment will send the dollar tumbling.
The US Unemployment Claims are expected to increase again, from 233K to 240K in the previous week, while the Core Durable Goods Orders may increase by 0.4% and could beat the 0.3% growth in the former reading period. The Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase by 3.5% in June, more after the 0.8% drop in the former reporting period, while the Goods Trade Balance is forecasted to increase from -65.9B to -65.0B in the last month. Prelim Wholesale Inventories could increase by 0.3%, less compared to the 0.4% in May.
USD/JPY continues to move sideways on the short term, has tried to increase, but was stopped by the 112.19 level. Now is trading below the 38.2% retracement level and much below the 150% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line), a drop towards the 50% retracement level and towards the warning line (wl1) is favored. Will decrease only if the USDX will slide further and if the Nikkie stock index will stay below the 20058 major static resistance.
Is trapped between the 23.6% and the 50% retracement levels, that's why I've said that will approach the downside line of this range. A buying opportunity will appear only if will come down to retest the confluence area formed between the 50% retracement level and the warning line (wl1), or if will manage to breakout above the third warning line (WL3) of the descending pitchfork.
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Stand aside
EUR/USD - 1.1698
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
The single currency rallied on dollar’s broad-based weakness after Fed, the breach of previous resistance at 1.1712 confirms recent upmove has resumed, hence gain to 1.1780-85 (50% projection of 1.1370-1.1712 measuring from 1.1613) cannot be ruled out, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1820-25 (61.8% projection), risk from there has increased for a retreat later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.1680 would suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.1648) but break there is needed to bring correction of recent rise towards support at 1.1613 first.
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 111.45
USD/JPY - 111.51
Original strategy :
Sold at 111.45, Target: 110.45, Stop: 111.80
Position : - Short at 111.45
Target : - 110.45
Stop : - 111.80
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 111.45, Target: 110.45, Stop: 111.80
Position : - Short at 111.45
Target : - 110.45
Stop : - 111.80
The greenback found support at 110.78 and has rebounded, suggesting further consolidation above this week’s low at 110.62 would be seen and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 111.78) would hold and bring retreat later, below said support at 110.78 would signal decline has resumed for retest of 110.62, break there would extend recent fall to 110.30-35.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 111.45. Above 111.75-80 would defer and prolong choppy trading, however, price should still falter below said resistance at 112.20, bring retreat later.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9472; (P) 0.9533; (R1) 0.9569; More...
USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9437 resumed after deep but brief retreat. But still, it's staying in range of 0.9437/9699. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we remain cautious on strong support from 0.9443 key support to bring reversal. Decisive break of 0.9699 will confirm and turn outlook bullish. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 0.9443 will extend the down trend from 1.0342 to 161.8% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9319.
In the bigger picture, focus is now back 0.9443 key support level. Sustained break there indicate underlying bearish momentum and would target 0.9 handle and possibly below. Meanwhile, strong rebound from current level and break 0.9699 resistance will extend long term range trading between 0.9443/1.0342.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1649; (P) 1.1695 (R1) 1.1777; More...
EUR/USD retreats mildly after hitting as high as 1.1776. But still, with 1.1612 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rise. Current medium term rally is expected to target 1.2 handle next. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1612 will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.
In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3037; (P) 1.3080; (R1) 1.3161; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.3168 to limit upside. However, sustained break there could extend recent rebound towards 1.3444 key resistance. But still, price actions from 1.1946 is seen as a corrective pattern and GBP/USD should feel heavy approaching 1.3444. On the downside, break of 1.2932 support will be the first sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside to target 1.2588 key support next.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
