Sample Category Title

The EUR/JPY has formed a flat top ascending triangle formation on H1 time frame, which suggests a possible continuation of bullish trend. Each triangle is a form of consolidation before the breakout, while the ascending triangle is a sign of uptrend. At this point we can see that the double top has been broken so we have 2 possible rejection points. First one is DT retest point 124.65. If the price retraces to the level we might see another bounce towards W H4/D H5 confluence 125.23. The break of 125.23 aims for 125.60. If the price make a pullback inside a triangle formation again than we might see a POC rejection 124.30-40 ( W L3, EMA89, ATR Pivot, D L3) towards above mentioned levels.

Connect with Nenad Kerkez T on Facebook for latest market updates.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

GBP/JPY - 142.20

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term down

New strategy :

Buy at 141.45, Target: 143.45, Stop: 140.85

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As sterling has risen again after brief pullback to 141.35, suggesting a test of resistance at 142.50 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal the erratic rise from 138.70 is still in progress for test of indicated previous resistance at 142.75, above there would signal recent decline has ended and encourage for at least a strong retracement of recent selloff to 143.05-10, then 143.50 but price should falter below previous resistance at 143.95.

In view of this, we are looking to buy sterling on pullback as support at 141.35 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 140.95 would risk weakness to 140.45-50 but only break there would signal the rebound from 139.85  has ended bring another test of this level first. Looking ahead, only break there would suggest the aforesaid erratic rise fro 138.70 is over, bring further fall to 139.15 support first. 

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


As the title states, the common European currency is trading in a set range against the US Dollar on Monday morning. The pair was fluctuating between the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level and the fresh first weekly resistance at the 1.1204 mark. Meanwhile, the pair is showing contradicting signals regarding its future direction. In a long term a decline of the Euro against the Buck is still expected. In regards to the short term, the pair is still trading in the borders of an ascending channel pattern. However, the upper trend line of the channel up pattern has recently been confirmed, which means that in the next 24 hours a decline of the pair might occur. The rate could fall down to the 1.1161 level. Although, there are various support levels, which could hinder the decline.

Despite being tied down by bearish technical indicators, GBP/USD managed to push through a descending trend-line and the 200-hour SMA. The combined support of the given SMA and the 23.6% Fibo did provide strong support for the Pound, restricting its move below the 1.2720 mark. During the first hours of this session, the pair has demonstrated reluctance to move above the monthly S1; however, indicators suggest that there is still some upside potential. The pair has been trading in a channel down for the last two weeks and has approached the upper channel boundary. Thus, it may be hindered or even reversed by the 38.2% Fibo at 1.2770. Meanwhile, the US is to release m/m durable goods orders at 1230 GMT that may provide downward pressure on the pair.

On Friday, a lack of strong market movers put USD/JPY in a small trading range in the 111.20/40 area. The pair was stopped several times by the 20– and 55-hour SMAs, restraining a move above the 111.30 mark. In this session, however, the US Dollar passed the both SMAs to test the upper channel boundary. It is likely that the American currency breaks the given line and appreciates against the Yen, as the sideways momentum demonstrates mitigated downside risks. By and large, upside potential may be realised up to the monthly PP at 111.80. The downside limit may be provided by a support cluster formed by the 55– and 200-day SMAs apparent on the daily chart circa 111.00. Meanwhile, the US is to release m/m durable goods orders at 1230 GMT that may provide upside pressure on the pair.

The yellow metal lost ground on Monday morning. However, the commodity price remained in the ascending channel pattern, which is guiding the rebound from the support of a long term pattern. The Monday morning decline of the bullion was a bounce off from the channel up pattern's resistance line. It is most likely that during the day the yellow metal will find support either in the 55 and 200-hour SMAs, respectively, at 1,253.57 and 1,254.29 and/or in the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,253 mark. A rebound against the pivot point would be consistent with the channel up pattern. Afterwards the next target for the commodity would be the 1,264 mark, where the weekly R1 is located at. Moreover, it has to be noted that the monthly PP is also supported by the weekly pivot point at 1,252.57.

'Certainly very modest core inflation continues to rumble in the background as a pretty strong reason for the bank not to rush the proceedings. That story was just pounded home today.' - Doug Porter, Bank of Montreal

Canadian consumer prices rose less than expected last month, moving away from the Bank of Canada's inflationary target of 2%. Statistics Canada reported on Friday that its CPI advanced 0.1% month-over-month in May, following the prior month's increase of 0.4% and falling behind analysts' expectations for a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis, consumer inflation climbed 1.3%, the lowest since November 2016, in May, down from the preceding month's gain of 1.6%, whereas analysts anticipated an increase of 1.5%. In the meantime, core consumer prices climbed 0.1% in May, up from the previous month's 0.0%. Analysts suggested that due to weak inflation data the Central bank would likely leave it policy and interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in July. Nevertheless, a rate hike by the end of this year remained on the table. The Bank has been holding rates at a record low of 0.50% since 2015, when it was forced to lower rates due to the sharp oil price fall. Food prices dropped 0.1% in May, marking the eighth straight monthly decline, whereas gasoline prices rose 6.8%, following the prior month's climb of 15.9%.

'The strong jobs growth was also a reflection of ongoing elevated levels of optimism about future growth.' — IHS Markit

Services activity in the 19-country bloc dropped unexpectedly in June, whereas manufacturing activity rose more than expected, a private survey released on Friday showed. IHS Markit reported that its preliminary PMI for the Euro zone's services sector fell to 54.7 points in June, following the preceding month's 56.3 and surpassing expectations for a slight decrease to 56.2. In the meantime, Markit's PMI for the region's manufacturing sector climbed to 57.3 points, up from the prior month's 57.0, while analysts expected a decline to 56.9. The composite PMI, a broad gauge of economic activity across the 19-country bloc's services and manufacturing sectors, dropped to 55.7 in June from May's 56.8 points. Nevertheless, the Index remained well above the 50-point level separating expansion from contraction. Moreover, the survey provided additional evidence that the economy was growing at a moderate, yet stable, pace amid strong optimism over the economic outlook for the region. Apart from that, the respondents pointed to solid employment and new orders growth in the region.

EUR/JPY - 124.88

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Bought art 123.80, Target: 125.30, Stop: 123.60

Position: - Long at 123.80
Target: - 125.30
Stop: - 123.60

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 123.80, Target: 125.30, Stop: 124.00

Position: - Long at 123.80
Target:  - 125.30
Stop:- 124.00

As the single currency has surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 123.66 last week and just broke above indicated resistance at 124.65, adding credence to our bullishness for the rise from 122.40 to extend further gain to indicated resistance at 125.31 but break of this level is needed to confirm correction from 125.82 has ended at 122.40, bring subsequent rise towards this recent high which is likely to hold on first testing.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 123.80. Only below support at 123.66 would risk weakness to 123.20-25, break there would defer and suggest first leg of rebound from 122.40 has ended instead, risk further weakness to 122.90-00 but price should stay well above said support at 122.40, bring another rebound later. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

AUD/USD – 0.7563

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7535

Position: - Long at 0.7595
Target:  - 0.7745
Stop: - 0.7535

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7535

Position: - Long at 0.7595
Target:  - 0.7745
Stop:- 0.7535

Aussie did hold above indicated support at 0.7535 and has rebounded, retaining our bullish view and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 0.7600, above there would bring test of indicated resistance at 0.7636, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend the rise from 0.7329 towards previous resistance at 0.7680 but loss of momentum should limit upside to chart resistance at 0.7750 and price should falter below 0.7785-90.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.7595. Below 0.7535 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring correction to 0.7515-20, break there would provide confirmation, then correction to 0.7490-95 and possibly towards support at 0.7457 would be seen later. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.