Sample Category Title
Interest Rate Hike Might Be Prudent In Second Half Of This Year: BoE’s Haldane
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.36% against the USD and closed at 1.2675, after the Bank of England's (BoE) Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, stated that he is likely to back an interest rate hike later this year, citing strong resilience of the economy and to prevent tightening too fast in the future.
Macroeconomic data showed that UK's public sector net borrowing has posted a deficit of £6.0 billion in May, after recording a revised deficit of £8.7 billion in the prior month. Meanwhile, markets were expecting public sector net borrowing to report a deficit of £7.0 billion.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2665, with the GBP trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2599, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2720, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2776.
In absence of any crucial economic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic news.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Yen Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 111.33.
On the data front, Japan’s final machine tool orders climbed 24.5% YoY in May, compared to a gain of 24.4% recorded in the preliminary figures. In the prior month, machine tool orders had registered a rise of 34.7%.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated that it is wise to stick to the central bank’s current monetary policy stance as inflation pressures in the economy remain stubbornly low.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.04, with the USD trading 0.26% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 110.75, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.45. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.54, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.03.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor Japan’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI for June, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.2% against the CHF and closed at 0.9724.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9722, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday's close. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9711, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9701.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9743, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9765.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Trade Idea : USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9705
USD/CHF - 0.9721
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 0.9723
Kijun-Sen level : 0.9735
Ichimoku cloud top : 0.9747
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 0.9731
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.9705, Target: 0.9805, Stop: 0.9690
Position : - Long at 0.9705
Target : - 0.9805
Stop : - 0.9690
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 0.9705, Target: 0.9805, Stop: 0.9690
Position : - Long at 0.9705
Target : - 0.9805
Stop : - 0.9690
As the greenback has slipped again after meeting resistance at 0.9766, suggesting further consolidation below said last week’s high at 0.9771 would be seen, however, as long as support at 0.9695 holds, bullishness remains for recent upmove to resume after initial sideways trading, break of said resistance at 0.9771 would confirm recent rise from 0.9613 low has resumed for test of resistance at 0.9808 but reckon previous resistance at 0.9825 would hold from here due to near term overbought condition.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.9705. Below said support at 0.9695 would defer and risk weakness towards said support at 0.9641 but only break there would abort and revive bearishness, this would also suggest the rebound from 0.9613 has ended instead, bring retest of this level later.
Loonie Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.4% against the CAD and closed at 1.3332.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3325, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3280, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3235. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3359, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3393.
Going ahead, Canada's retail sales data for April, scheduled to release later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Trade Idea : GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.2695
GBP/USD - 1.2669
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.2671
Kijun-Sen level : 1.2650
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.2709
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.2655
Original strategy :
Sold at 1.2695, Target: 1.2595, Stop: 1.2710
Position : - Short at 1.2695
Target : - 1.2595
Stop : - 1.2710
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 1.2695, Target: 1.2595, Stop: 1.2710
Position : - Short at 1.2695
Target : - 1.2595
Stop : - 1.2710
Although cable staged a strong rebound after yesterday’s brief fall to 1.2589, as long as 1.2710 holds, mild downside bias remains for another decline, below 1.2635-40 would bring another fall towards said support but break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal recent decline has resumed for weakness towards 1.2550, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2520-25.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.2695. Only above 1.2720-25 would abort and suggest low has been formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2755-60 and possibly 1.2780 but price should falter below indicated strong resistance at 1.2818.
Trade Idea : EUR/USD – Sell at 1.1190
EUR/USD - 1.1173
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.1169
Kijun-Sen level : 1.1153
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.1166
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.1137
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.1185, Target: 1.1085, Stop: 1.1220
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Sell at 1.1190, Target: 1.1090, Stop: 1.1225
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
The single currency has rebounded again after holding above this week’s low at 1.1119, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and near term upside risk remains for retracement to 1.1185-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1296-1.1119), however, upside should be limited and price should falter below 1.1207-13 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance), bring another decline later, below 1.1135-40 would suggest the rebound from 1.1119 has ended, brig retest of this level, below there would confirm recent decline has resumed for further weakness to previous support at 1.1109, then towards 1.1075-80 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.1050.
In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 1.1185-90 should limit upside. Only above 1.1213 resistance would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.1230-35 but upside should be limited to 1.1260-70, bring another decline later.
Trade Idea : USD/JPY – Buy at 110.65
USD/JPY - 111.05
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 111.20
Kijun-Sen level : 111.35
Ichimoku cloud top : 111.42
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 111.35
Original strategy :
Buy at 110.65, Target: 111.65, Stop: 110.30
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 110.65, Target: 111.65, Stop: 110.30
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
As the greenback has slipped again after faltering below recent high at 111.79, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 111.80 is likely, however, reckon previous support at 110.65 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 111.45-50 would bring retest of 111.79 but break there is needed to confirm the rise from 108.82 low has resumed and extend headway to 111.90-95 (50% projection of 108.82-111.42-110.65), however, upside should be limited to resistance at 112.13 and 112.25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 114.37-108.82 and 61.8% projection) should hold.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as 110.65 support should limit downside. Below 110.30-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 108.82-111.79 and previous resistance turned support) would abort and signal a temporary top has been formed instead, risk weakness towards 109.95-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1141; (P) 1.1154 (R1) 1.1182; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in range of 1.1109/1295. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1298 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2603; (P) 1.2656; (R1) 1.2723; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.2813 resistance intact. At this point, we're still favoring the bearish case that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3047 already. Sustained break of 1.2614 resistance turned support should confirm our bearish view and target a test on 1.1946 low next. However, break of 1.2813 resistance will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3047 and above.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. Price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a consolidation pattern, which could have completed after hitting 55 week EMA. Break of 1.1946 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.5016 to 1.1946 from 1.3047 at 1.1150 next. In case the consolidation from 1.1946 extends, outlook will stay remain bearish as long as 1.3444 resistance holds.
