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After suffering its heaviest week of losses so far in 2017, the British Pound is attempting to consolidate around 1.28 against the US Dollar. I personally think that politics will continue to influence the direction of the British Pound, and I believe that there is further momentum for the currency to fall with the UK General Election being a little over a week away. In general, the markets do not like uncertainty and this is the recurring theme for the UK at present with another election around the corner and ongoing Brexit uncertainty continuing to dominate news headlines.

My view is that even following the dip lower from the 2017 highs above 1.30 is that the financial markets are still underpricing the risk of an unexpected outcome to the election next week. Investors in general stacked their cards heavily in favour of Theresa May being declared the winner following the unexpected calling of a snap election, but opinion polls are currently showing that the race to winning the election is going to be close. I can't help but think that recent history could be repeating itself with the markets currently underpricing the risk of an outcome that could differ to what the markets expect, which is a Conservative victory on 8 June.

USDJPY – a game of politics vs economics

The British Pound is not alone in being underpinned to political risk, with politics vs. economics being the name of the game when it comes to trading the USDJPY. I believe that politics will continue to dictate the direction of this pair as we head into the second half of 2017, and I am actually favouring towards the Japanese Yen covering further ground against its counterparts on the back of safe-haven buying.

A lack of optimism around the likelihood that President Trump will be able to push forward with his legislative reforms will put the spotlight firmly on Washington, and I think that this will result in further pressure on the USD. Any further market uncertainty in the United States will eventually lead to investors being lured back into the safe-haven appeal of the Yen.

EURUSD – facing near-term selling pressure

The likelihood that the ECB will repeat its dovish rhetoric during its Central Bank meeting in June is encouraging traders to enter selling positions on the Eurodollar after the pair reached new 2017 milestone highs above 1.12 last week. Despite economic data around Europe continuing to improve confidence that the economy has turned a corner, the market is swaying towards the belief that the ECB will repeat in June that the economy still requires ECB stimulus and this could result in the Eurodollar slipping further towards 1.10.

Oil markets remain pessimistic on OPEC outcome

Investors remain unimpressed with the outcome of the OPEC meeting late last week, with the commodity once again encountering selling pressure around $50. The general view is that the OPEC meeting outcome was very predictable with investors pricing in a nine-month extension to the production cut some time ago, and confirmation of what was already expected beforehand just led to a “sell-on news” opportunity for traders. I maintain the viewpoint that the mindset of investors will remain tilted towards sell-on rally opportunities and I think traders are likely to continue entering selling positions around $50 as they have done for a number of months.

The negative expectations on the oil markets are not due to a lack of effort from the side of OPEC; it is more linked to the belief that US Shale producers will turn the volume up on increased production. The ongoing threat to investor sentiment when it comes to the oil markets is that no matter what OPEC try to do to rebalance the ongoing oversupply in the markets, US Shale producers will be able to offset the efforts by increasing inventories from their side.

Can Gold keep its feet above $1260?

Gold managed to conclude trading last week above $1260, and the outlook is that there is room for further appreciation towards $1275 as long as the precious metal is able to keep its feet above $1260. There are a couple of factors that can encourage a supportive view towards a stronger valuation in Gold over the coming weeks, including the probable US interest rate increase in June already being priced into the financial markets and any market uncertainty over the impending UK General Election encouraging a rally for safe-haven assets.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8680; (P) 0.8703; (R1) 0.8716; More...

The pull back from 0.8705 extends lower and intraday bias stays neutral first. While more consolidations is expected, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish as long as 0.8602 support holds and further rally would be seen. Above 0.8750 will target 0.8786 resistance first. Break of 0.8786 would pave the wave for retesting 0.9304 high. Break of 0.8602, however, will argue that the rebound from 0.9312 has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8529 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. The leg from 0.9304 should have completed after taking 0.8332 structural support. But it's too early to say that larger rise from 0.6935 is resuming. Rejection from 0.9304 will extend the consolidation with another falling leg. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9304 will target 0.9799 (2008 high). In case of another decline, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound.

Cable is trading within narrow consolidation above one-month low at 1.2775 for the second day with mixed signals from technical studies seeing no clear direction in the near-term.

The latest polls showed narrowing lead of Conservative party over Labour party that may pressure sterling further in the days ahead of election.

Near-term structure is bearish and recovery attempts being so far capped by thick hourly cloud, keeping initial resistance at 1.2850 (Monday's high) intact for now.

Friday's long bearish candle continues to weigh, with bears requiring clear break below 1.2786 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2365/1.3047 upleg) to signal fresh extension of pullback from 1.3047 peak towards next support at 1.2706 (55SMA).

Rising and thickening daily cloud is underpinning broader rally (cloud top lies at 1.2662) and should contain extended dips.

Meantime, bullish signal is developing on reversal of daily slow stochastic from oversold zone that may pause bears for extended consolidative/corrective action.

Converged daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines (1.2911) are expected to cap upticks.

Res: 1.2850, 1.2866, 1.2895, 1.2911
Sup: 1.2786, 1.2775, 1.2755, 1.2706

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4975; (P) 1.5010; (R1) 1.5033; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first. Firm break of 1.4934 support will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after hitting 1.5094 key resistance. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4540). Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

The Euro fell further in Asia, coming under fresh pressure after ECB chief Draghi signaled in his speech on Monday that stimulus program is likely to extend. Also, fresh risk aversion in the markets that sent EURJPY cross significantly lower dragged the EURUSD pair.

Concerns about Greek bailout are adding on developing negative sentiment around the Euro.

The pair is trading in red for the fourth consecutive day and hit session low just ahead of 1.1100 support (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0839/1.1268 upleg), which marks the trigger for further weakness.

Break below 1.1100 handle could accelerate through 1.1060 (base of thick 4-hr cloud, reinforced by rising 20SMA ) and may extend towards psychological 1.1000 support (also Fibo 61.8% of 1.0839/1.1268).

Daily RSI reversed from overbought territory and shows a plenty of room at the downside, however, oversold slow stochastic suggests bears may pause, but so far lacking firmer signal as the indicator is still heading south.

Broken daily Tenkan-sen caps Tuesday’s action at 1.1071 and marks initial barrier, with extended upticks expected to hold below 4-hr cloud top (1.1194) to keep near-term bears in play.

German inflation and EU Consumer confidence data are due later and eyed for further signals.

Res: 1.1171, 1.1194, 1.1234, 1.1250
Sup: 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.1053, 1.1000

Sunrise Market Commentary

• Rates: Inflation key, but investor's won't lose their nerves
  Today's calendar heats up. We focus on German (CPI) and US (PCE) inflation readings. Markets will probably be most sensitive to hawkish surprises in EMU and dovish ones in the US. This week's backloaded eco calendar suggests that investors' won't rush into hurried conclusions though. Sentiment on EMU bond markets is a wildcard for trading.
• Currencies: EUR/USD declines on soft Draghi comments and return of political risk
  Yesterday and this morning, the euro was in the defensive as soft Draghi comments and uncertainty on Greece and Italy provided a good reason to take further profit on the recent EUR/USD rally. Today, the focus will be on price data in the US and Germany. The euro looks more vulnerable than the dollar if sentiment turns risk-off

The Sunrise Headlines

• US and UK investors return from the long weekend today after yesterday's Memorial Day and Spring Bank Holiday. Overnight, Asian stock markets trade mixed.
• Big banks are throttling back from the $1.2T US car loan market, fearing that consumers have taken on more debt than they can handle. Data released last week showed the 1st sequential drop in car loans outstanding in at least 6 years.
• Japan's unemployment rate held steady at 2.8% in April, at a 23-yr low. Japan's household spending pushed further into contraction, but retail sales rose at a faster rate thanks to a boost from department stores and supermarkets sales.
• St. Louis Fed Bullard says jury is still out on whether government policies will meet expectations that have been priced into equity markets.
• Greece's government is preparing to possibly go without next bailout payment if creditors don't agree on debt relief for the country, Bild reports, without saying where it obtained the information.
• North Korea's latest missile launch is its 3rd apparent breakthrough in missile technology in less than 3 weeks. Kim Jong Un expressed the conviction that it would make a greater leap forward in the spirit to send a bigger 'gift package' to the Yankees in retaliation for American military provocation, according to KCNA.
• Today's eco calendar heats up with EC confidence data, German (CPI) and US (PCE) inflation readings, US personal income/spending data and consumer confidence. Italy taps the market and ECB Liikanen and Fed Brainard speak

Currencies: EUR/USD Declines On Soft Draghi Comments And Return Of Political Risk

EUR/USD eases further off last week's top

Trading in EUR/USD and USD/JPY was confined to tight ranges yesterday with US and UK markets closed. ECB's Draghi maintained a soft approach in his appearance before the EU parliament. EUR/USD reversed modest gains after Draghi's testimony. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.1164, near the intraday low. USD/JPY finished an uneventful session at 111.27.

Overnight, Asian markets started with a cautious risk-off bias, but the losses are limited and eased as the session proceeds. Chinese markets are closed. Japanese eco data were mixed. The jobless rate (2.8%) is holding at a multi-year low and the Job-to-applicants ratio rose to the highest level since 1974. For now the favourable job market didn't lead to a pick in consumer spending. The yen holds strong. USD/JPY dropped below 111 and is testing last week's low. The move is in the first place due to the cautious risk sentiment, but Japanese factors might also play a secondary role (recent rise in short-term yields, decent eco data). The USD/JPY decline also pressured EUR/JPY (123.40) and EUR/USD (1.1130).

The eco calendar is well filled today. Confidence data from the European Commission are expected to confirm the improvement seen in other confidence indicators. German CPI is expected to decline 0.1% M/M to be up 1.5% Y/Y (from 2.0% in April). The swings are partially driven by technical factors, but a decline in German/EMU inflation might be seen as supporting the case for a cautious ECB approach. In the US, the personal income and spending data are expected at a decent 0.4%, but the deflators are expected slightly softer from March (1.7% from 1.8 for the overall deflator). US consumer confidence (conference board) is expected to decline slightly from a very high level

The price data (both in the US and Europe) and global risk sentiment are probably key for global/FX trading today. We don't expect the US data to be that poor that they will question a June Fed rate hike. Soft German inflation data have the potential to reinforce the recent euro correction. EMU political risk is also again on the radar (speculation on Italian elections and Greece looking for confirmation on debt relief). The soft Draghi comments might have a slightly negative impact on the euro.

So, the EUR/USD correction off last week's top might continue. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD might feel more downside pressure if sentiment turns more risk-off.

Of late, the dollar traded soft. US data were a bit disappointing, markets turned more cautious on Trump's pro-growth agenda and US yields declined, keeping the dollar in the defensive. At the same time, the euro profited of reduced political risk on the region. This picture hasn't profoundly changed, but last week, there were tentative signs that the dollar decline could slow. Is enough USD softness discounted? This week's payrolls and manufacturing ISM might be important in this assessment. At the same time the euro positive momentum is also fading.

Technical picture

The USD/JPY rebound ran into resistance early May. A mini-sell-off pushed the pair back below the 112.20 previous top and made the short-term picture negative. Return action lower in the 108.13/114.37 range is possible.

Earlier this month, it looked that EUR/USD could revisit 1.0821/1.0778 support (gap). However, poor US data and political upheaval finally propelled EUR/USD north of the 1.1023 range top. The pair reached a short-term correction top at 1.1268. The correction top at 1.1300/1.1366 is next resistance. USD sentiment will have to be extremely negative to clear this hurdle short-term. Further ST EUR/USD gains might become tougher. A return below 1.1023 would indicate that the upside momentum has eased.

EUR/USD: correction off last week's top continues on soft Draghi comments and as EMU political risk returns to the radar

EUR/GBP

Focus for sterling trading remains on the opinion polls

UK markets were closed for the Spring bank holiday yesterday. Markets are keen to see whether PM May's conservative party can stop the erosion of its lead in the opinions polls for the June 08 elections. Political uncertainty didn't cause additional harm on sterling yesterday even as polls during the weekend confirmed the narrowing gap with Labour. Cable closed a thinly traded session at 1.2840. EUR/GBP finished the day at 0.8695. Post-Draghi euro softness also weighed slightly on EUR/GBP.

There again no important eco data in the UK today. Focus will remain on the UIK political scene. Uncertainty on the lead of the conservative party is a negative for sterling short-term. Contrary to what was the case of late, this might in the first place be visible in cable (rather than in EUR/GBP). The picture for EUR/GBP is more mixed as the single currency is also in the defensive. EUR/GBP trades off last week's top in the mid 0.87 area. Further consolidation/correction on the May rally might be on the cards

EUR/GBP: euro weakness dominates even as UK political uncertainty continues to play a role

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0887; (P) 1.0900; (R1) 1.0922; More...

EUR/CHF is still engaging in the consolidation pattern from 1.0986 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 1.0791/0872 support zone to bring rise resumption. As noted before, the consolidative pattern from 1.1198 should be completed. Firm break of 1.0999 resistance will pave the way for a retest on 1.1198 high.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it's completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

Following a slow start on Monday which saw the US and the UK markets closed, the economic calendar picks up pace today. The US personal consumption expenditure, income and spending data are on the cards with the broad data expected to show a pickup in spending and income.

The US dollar is currently seen pushing higher and a positive string of economic releases could help to keep the current recovery in the greenback intact. The markets were mostly mixed yesterday despite a slow trading and lack of any clear fundamentals to act as a catalyst.

Besides the data from the US the regional GDP numbers from the eurozone will be coming out. France GDP and preliminary inflation figures from Germany will help shape expectations for the euro ahead of this week's flash inflation estimates that will be key for the common currency.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1126): The euro attempted to rally but price action turned weaker by end of day. The EURUSD is currently seen pushing lower and it is likely that the support level at $1.1100 will be tested in the near term.

The currency pair is likely to see some bounce at this support level but could remain subdued below $1.1200. A break out below $1.1100 is required for EURUSD to target $1.1000 which could happen towards Friday's non-farm payrolls release.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.2819): The British pound managed to stabilize following last Friday's strong declines that sent the cable to test $1.2800 support.

The modest recovery yesterday however failed to offer any bounce as price reverted to the support level once again which is being tested. The near-term bias remains flat in GBPUSD unless we see a strong break down below $1.2800. A better than expected PCE data today could help price to break down leaving the declines exposed towards $1.2600 support level which is the next downside target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1268.00): Gold prices continued to post modest gains with price rising to a fresh one-month high earlier today at $1270.47.

The next main resistance level is seen at $1274.00 which could be tested over the remainder of the week. In the near term, the current pullback could see gold prices retest the support at $1263.00. This level had previously acted as resistance in the past two weeks. Therefore, there is a strong chance that the newly developed support could hold prices. A break down below $1263.00 could however push gold prices lower, invalidating the bullish outlook to $1274.00 with prices instead likely to test $1250.00 support.

EUR/USD

It was a dull Monday with holidays in most major markets keeping activity to the minimum across the FX board. China, the UK and the US, all remained closed at the beginning of the week. The only relevant event of the day was ECB's Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament, which added nothing new to what the market already knew. Draghi stressed the need for further monetary support, as despite the downside risks to the economic outlook have been diminishing, it's too early to retrieve it. The major issue, according to ECB's head is that underlying inflation has remained subdued as well as wage growth, insufficient to support a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation toward the medium-term objective.

The EUR/USD pair traded in the 1.1160/80 region all day long, with investors awaiting fresh clues, in the form of US and German preliminary May´s inflation, both scheduled to be released this Tuesday, alongside with EU latest confidence surveys. The technical picture in the short term favors a downward extension, although it will remain corrective due to ongoing dollar's weakness, unless the pair returns to territory sub-1.1000. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings present a neutral-to-bearish stance, with the price contained below a horizontal 20 SMA, and technical indicators heading marginally lower within negative territory.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

Resistance levels: 1.1220 1.1260 1.1300

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was unable to move this Monday, holding around its Friday's close of 111.33 for the past 24 hours, as multiple holidays across the world kept the most relevant markets closed. China will extend its holidays into this Tuesday, but the rest of the Asian markets will be active. Japan will release its April unemployment and retail sales data, expected to have improved modestly from March figures. Better-than-expected figures should favor additional gains in the JPY, as firmer macroeconomic data will support the beginning of the end for easing in the country. Still, and in the short term, yields will likely remain as the main motor. From a technical point of view, the pair has made little progress, comfortably consolidating around the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run and below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart, in where technical indicators head marginally lower within bearish territory, lacking momentum amid the absence of volume. A strong support comes at 110.85, with a break below it favoring a stronger slide towards the 110.00 region.

Support levels: 110.85 110.50 110.10

Resistance levels: 111.65 112.00 112.45

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair recovered up to 1.2850 this Monday, settling a few pips below it, amid continued dollar's weakness, despite thin trading conditions. There were no macroeconomic news coming from the UK, although PM May confirmed that Brexit negotiations will start next June 19th, urging voters to give her the support she needs in the upcoming national election. The announcement came after a survey poll led by The Independent showed that most voters want to know more about the Brexit plan before the election. Indeed, the Pound will be all about election and Brexit during the next couple of weeks, with polls leading the way, as both currencies are equally weak these days. From a technical point of view, the risk turned towards the downside after the bearish breakout of 1.2900, although there's still a critical support in the way towards 1.2500, the 1.2756 low set on April 21st, as it’s the lowest since PM May announced the election. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart confirm the negative bias, as technical indicators have barely corrected oversold conditions before losing upward strength, whilst the price keeps developing below a bearish 20 SMA, now providing resistance around 1.2880.

Support levels: 1.2790 1.2765 1.2730

Resistance levels: 1.2840 1.2885 1.2920

GOLD

Spot gold held near the three-week high set last Friday, heading into the Asian session barely below Friday's close, now around $1,266.70 a troy ounce. Political jitters and physical demand should back gold prices during the upcoming sessions, as during the weekend, North Korea issued another missile test that landed in the Sea of Japan, whilst Asian buyers will boost demand ahead of the wedding season. Also, the US will release its PCE index this Tuesday, Fed's favorite inflation measure, and higher than expected readings may cap advances on mounting speculation about a rate hike this month. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price holds well above their moving averages, whilst technical indicators have lost their upward strength, consolidating near overbought levels. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is neutral-to-bullish, as the price is also standing above its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading north and providing an immediate support at 1,262.25, and technical indicators heading nowhere well above their mid-lines, reflecting the current quietness rather than suggesting upward exhaustion.

Support levels: 1,262.25 1,254.60 1,245.20

Resistance levels: 1,272.90 1,283.10 1,290.00

WTI CRUDE OIL

Oil prices advanced modestly this Monday, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures flirting with the 50.00 figure by the end of the day. The commodity traded as high as $50.27 a barrel with investors still cautious after a disappointing OPEC's announcement and another sign of US rising production, after the Baker Hughes report showed that the country keeps increasing drilling. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price remains below its 100 and 200 DMAs, both converging around 51.00, but above a bullish 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators hold within positive territory, although without directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now struggling around a bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have faltered around their mid-lines, now heading modestly lower within neutral territory, indicating that buying interest is still limited. An advance beyond 50.50, however, will likely indicate additional gains for this Tuesday.

Support levels: 49.40 48.70 48.10

Resistance levels: 50.50 51.20 51.85

DJIA

Wall Street was closed this Monday, posting, however, a modest advance in electronic trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday at 21,080.28, peaked at 21,111 this Monday, and currently stands around 21,090 ahead of the Asian opening. The index remains near record highs, albeit political jitters may take their toll over US equities this Tuesday, with the banking sector at risk, after plummeting in Italy on speculation of a call for early election, alongside with rising tensions surrounding North Korea. The technical picture for the Dow remains unchanged from previous update, generally bullish, despite indicators have turned flat within positive territory, amid the lack of volume at the beginning of the week. In the 4 hours chart, the index holds above a bullish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator has turned flat around its 100 level, as the RSI indicator holds near overbought readings. The mentioned 20 SMA stands at 21,075, offering an immediate support, although it will take a downward acceleration though the 21,00 figure to confirm a bearish extension for the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 21,075 21,048 21,003

Resistance levels: 21,112 21,169 21,200

FTSE100

The London market remained closed this Monday, with the FTSE 100 latest registered close at 7,545, right below an intraday all-time high of 7,554 set on Friday. The Footsie advanced for four consecutive weeks, backed partially by latest Pound's weakness, as most of the companies listed generate revenues abroad that get pumped up on a fragile local currency. In fact, the index's latest rally can be attributed to speculation that the Pound will weaken further during the upcoming months and following the Brexit. Upcoming short term behavior, however, will depend on how Asian shares develop, particularly those related to commodities. In the meantime, the technical picture is bullish, as in the daily chart, the index remains far above all of its moving averages, whilst technical indicators are aiming back higher after a modest downward correction, holding near overbought levels. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart the risk is also towards the upside, as the Momentum barely aims higher within neutral territory, whilst the RSI indicator corrected partially overbought readings, but pared losses around 70. In this last time frame, a bullish 20 SMA heads north below the current level, offering a dynamic support around 7,515.

Support levels: 7,515 7,490 7,455

Resistance levels: 7,554 7,590 7,620

DAX

The German DAX added 26 points or 0.21% this Monday, closing at 12,628.95, in a lackluster trading day, amid holidays in the UK and the US. Most members closed up, although the banking sector came under pressure all through the region, dragged lower by Italian ones that plunged on talks over a possible early election in the country. Within the DAX, Muenchener was the best performer, up 0.97%, while Bayerische followed, ending up 0.85%. Vonovia was the worst performer shedding 0.97%, followed by Deutsche Bank that closed 0.61% lower. From a technical point of view, the index retains the neutral bias seen on previous updates, holding a few points below its 20 DMA, but far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the benchmark is also neutral, with the Momentum stuck around its 100 level, the RSI hovering around its mod-line and the index converging with a horizontal 20 SMA.

Support levels: 12,591 12,542 12,490

Resistance levels: 12,631 12,675 12,729

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.40; (P) 142.73; (R1) 143.16; More....

GBP/JPY's decline from 148.09 extends lower to as low as 141.82 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 140.35. At this point, we'd still expect rebound from 122.36 to resume later. Hence, we'd look for strong support below 140.35 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 13.36 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained trading below 140.35 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 135.58 key near term support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 122.36 medium term bottom is still expected to extend to of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. And decisive break there could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, as the cross is starting to lose upside momentum, rejection below 150.42 and break of 135.58 support will indicate reversal and bring deeper fall back to retest 122.36 instead.