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It's always nice to end the week with the obvious and you don't get much more obvious than this bullish setup on the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Daily:

The SP500 daily chart simply shows the textbook bull market that we've spoken about on the blog previously.

Look left to right and you can see that price is going up. You really don't need me to draw a trend line to show you that it's in a bull market no matter which higher time frame chart you click on.

S&P 500 4 Hourly:

Inside the higher time frame bullish trend, price has been drifting sideways and printed what looks to me like some sort of flag.

The Canadian dollar will end up near where it started the trading session. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3476 as the pair was caught in a tight trading range were the US dollar weakness started dissipating as the session wore on. The price of oil continued on a downward trend, but there as a ray of hope for higher prices as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members Saudi Arabia and Kuwait signalled that an extension to the production cut agreement is likely ahead of a general meeting of the organization this weekend. There are rumours that even non-OPEC members who are part of the deal like Russia are on board with extending the original six month term.

Several think tanks and economic agencies have warned about Canadian real estate overheating and following the lead from Vancouver, Ontario announced a 15 percent tax on property purchases by foreign buyers who don't intend to reside in Canada. The tax is effectively immediately and aimed at curbing prices in Toronto and surrounding areas where properties have jumped 33 percent year over year. The move has been triggered by backlash from residents who have seen housing prices sky rocket ahead of the June provincial elections. The same tax applied in Vancouver is seen as resulting in a 9 percent drop when compared to last year.

US President Donald Trump took aim at the Canadian dairy industry as part of another attack on NAFTA. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to those comments by pointing out that the US has a dairy surplus with Canada and that regarding agriculture every country protects, for good reason. The USD is still reeling from comments made by Trump who said the greenback was too strong prompting a sell off of the currency. Geopolitical risk is also on the rise as US rhetoric against North Korea has escalated and the French presidential elections have markets on edge.

The USD/CAD lost 0.032 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.3476 in a tight range on Thursday. The price of oil has been volatile as OPEC comments and US production have kept the price of a barrel of crude around $50. The USD has regained some traction after the comments from US Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin in Washington, but not enough to fully offset earlier losses triggered by Trump's comments on the strength of the US dollar. The loonie is flat as there will be further quotes from Washington as the IMF/World Bank summit continues.

Oil fell 0.548 percent on Thursday. The price of West Texas is trading at $50.26 in a session where crude almost broke through the $51 price level but the battle between higher US production and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cuts continues. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait made comments on the possible extension of the deal with producers such as Russia theoretically on board. The rise in gasoline inventories on Wednesday, specially ahead of the US driving season, has put the black stuff on the back foot as there still seems to be more supply than demand despite the cuts from OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Market events to watch this week:

Thursday, April 20

• 8:30am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 11:30am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
• 12:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
• 1:15pm USD Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks

Friday, April 21

• 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
• 8:30am CAD CPI m/m

Saturday, April 22

• All Day OPEC Meeting

Sunday, April 23

• All Day French Elections

*All times EDT

No majority win will result in a 2nd round in May 7

French voters will cast their ballots in the presidential elections on Sunday, April 23. The results will have a significant impact on the EUR as the tight 4 way race has could result in a variety of uncertain scenarios. Currently four candidates: Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Francois Fillon and Jean-Luc Melenchon are close to evenly splitting the vote amongst themselves which means that regardless of who wins, it won't be a majority win. The second round will be held on May 7, but as more voters grow tired of the campaign and the fact that their vote will only decide who goes through to the run-off absenteeism expectations are high complicating matters even more. The EUR will be priced according to the eventual combination of the two politicians who go through with the best case scenario for the single currency the more market friendly Macron and Fillon and at the other end of the spectrum both extremists candidates Le Pen and Melenchon.

Marine Le Pen has been the highest profile candidate running on a protectionist platform and is the biggest eurosceptic. Le Pen poll numbers have always put her through in the second round but always losing by a wide margin as her view are too polarizing and voters will default to their second choice if their candidate did not make it to the run off. The French presidential campaign has been so volatile that Macron, the most inexperienced at this stage and with a new party and Melenchon have quickly built strong momentum, but also signalling the fickleness of voters at this stage.

Political uncertainty has increased its influence on global markets after the shocks of the Brexit referendum outcome and the election of Donald Trump. Pollsters were pointing to an altogether different result for both which the markets had already priced in, only to be caught on the wrong side as forecasters had missed the mark. The already packed election calendar in Europe just got another entry as the British Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election on June 8. The French presidential elections will be eclipsed by the parliamentary elections in June 11 where another lack of majority is expected leading to a comprised cohabitation between political parties.

The EUR/USD gained 0.048 in the last 24 hours. The single currency is trading at 1.0717 and has stayed on a tight trading range that has seen the euro up as Macron's poll numbers rise, but remains pressured by the ghost of high abstention numbers as there is almost a guarantee of a second round in the French elections this weekend. The tight race has put the worst case scenario for the markets of two extreme candidates making it through to the second round with little possibility of consolidating a coalition in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

The Brexit referendum as well as rhetoric from Le Pen has resonated with part of the French electorate which while not a high possibility Frexit is still in the cards putting downward pressure on the EUR as the stability of the Union is once again threatened. MarketPulse VP of Research Dean Popplewell wrote about the different French election scenarios

The economy of the European Union has shown signs of life and while not completely out of the woods it has given more breathing room to the European Central Bank (ECB) that after reaching negative rates and a massive stimulus program was running out of monetary policy tools to boost growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded global growth, but now the biggest risks come from more protectionist governments and their quest for one-sided gains that appear to be directly lifted from the political campaigns around the globe.

Market events to watch this week:

Friday, April 21

• 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
• 8:30am CAD CPI m/m

Saturday, April 22

• All Day OPEC Meeting

Sunday, April 23

• All Day French Elections

*All times EDT

Gold is unchanged in the Thursday session, after posting losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, gold is trading at $1279.91 per ounce. On the release front, manufacturing and employment numbers were soft, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims missed their estimates. Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Robert Mnuchin will deliver remarks in Washington.

Gold prices have climbed sharply in April, with gains of 2.6 percent. The base metal has benefited from geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea, as well as uncertainty over the French election on April 23. These concerns have dampened risk appetite, as investors have snapped up gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset.The French election race is one of the tightest in decades, with the four front-runners clustered within a few percentage points. Given the closeness and unpredictability of the election, the latest opinion polls are moving the markets. On Thursday, a Harris Interactive opinion poll showed centrist Emmanuel Macron gaining ground, with 25% of the vote. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen follows with 22%. Next are Republican candidate Francois Fillon and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, both tied at 19%. Le Pen and Melenchon are both running on an anti-EU platform, so the markets are cheering for Macron and Fillion. We can expect more volatility from gold as the turbulent election winds up and French voters have their say.

With the US economy continuing to perform well, the markets are expecting the Fed to continue to gradually raise rates in 2017. The Fed has broadly hinted that it plans two more rate hikes this year, but there have been calls from some Fed policymakers for three more hikes. However, soft retail sales and CPI numbers in March are likely to make the Fed more dovish, and on Tuesday, the Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve lowered their outlook for US economic growth for the first quarter. The Fed can point to a labor market that is close to capacity as well as strong consumer confidence, but surprisingly, this has not translated into stronger consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The odds of a June hike have slipped to 46% according to the CME Group, down sharply from 65% in early April.

GBP/USD has posted gains on Thursday, erasing most of the losses which marked the Wednesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2830. There are no British economic releases on the schedule, although the markets are keeping an eye on BoE Governor Mark Carney, who will speak at two events in Washington. In the US, manufacturing and employment numbers were soft, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims missed their estimates. Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Robert Mnuchin will deliver remarks in Washington. On Friday, the UK releases Retail Sales, which is expected to decline 0.3%. The US will publish Existing Home Sales, with a forecast of 5.61 million.

It's been a great week for the pound, as GBP/USD has jumped 2.4 percent. On Tuesday, the currency punched above 1.29, its highest level since October 2016, on the news that Prime Minister May had called a snap national election on June 8. The announcement caught the markets by surprise, as the government's term runs until 2020 and May had previously said that she would not call early elections. May's Conservative Party currently has 330 seats in Parliament, which is a slim majority of just 17 seats. If, as current opinion polls predict, the government wins a larger majority, this would likely propel the pound to higher levels.

With the US economy continuing to perform well, the markets are expecting the Fed to continue to gradually raise rates in 2017. The Fed has broadly hinted that it plans two more rate hikes this year, but there have been calls from some Fed policymakers for three more hikes. However, soft retail sales and CPI numbers in March are likely to make the Fed more dovish, and on Tuesday, the Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve lowered their outlook for US economic growth for the first quarter. The Fed can point to a labor market that is close to capacity as well as strong consumer confidence, but surprisingly, this has not translated into stronger consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The odds of a June hike have slipped to 46% according to the CME Group, down sharply from 65% in early April.

USD/CHF - 0.9945

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9955

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9967

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0004

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9978

Original strategy :

Exit short entered at 1.0000,

Position : - Short at 1.0000

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback has remained under pressure and mild downside bias remains for recent decline from 1.0108 top to extend weakness to 0.9935-38 (50% projection of 1.0067-0.9955 measuring from 0.9992) and then 0.9926 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9813-1.0108) but reckon 0.9900-05 (1.618 times projection of 1.0108-1.0008 measuring from 1.0067) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above resistance at 0.9992 would suggest low is possibly formed but break of previous support at 1.0008 is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0020-30.

Gold is trading near the highs, but we see metal in fifth wave of an impulsive structure from Mar 10, so pair can be trading in late stages of an uptrend. Therefore be aware of a turn lower into a three wave set-back that can show up by the end of the month.

GOLD, 4H

GBP/USD - 1.2827

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2817

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2809

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2775

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2711

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable rebounded after finding support at 1.2770 and gain to 1.2855-60 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to signal the pullback from 1.2906 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.2920-30 (2 times extension of 1.2365-1.2575 measuring from 1.2500), then 1.2950 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2990-00 (1.236 times projection of 1.2109-1.2616 measuring from 1.2365 and psychological resistance). If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another retreat to 1.2755-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) cannot be ruled out but 1.2700-10 should hold, bring another rally.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on subsequent pullback as downside should be limited to 1.2710 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906), bring another rise. Below 1.2700 would defer and signal top has been formed, risk correction to 1.2660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and price should stay well above 1.2608-16 (previous resistance now support).

EUR/USD - 1.0768

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0767

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0739

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0714

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0681

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0690, Target: 1.0790, Stop: 1.0655

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0690, Target: 1.0790, Stop: 1.0655

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove from 1.0570 is still in progress and upside bias remains for further gain to 1.0783-85 (61.8% projection of 1.0602-1.0737 measuring from 1.0700), then 1.0800-10, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0825-30, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy euro on pullback as 1.0690-00 should limit downside. Only below previous resistance at 1.0670 (now support) would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction towards previous support at 1.0635 which is likely to hold from here. 

USD/JPY - 109.20

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.09

Kijun-Sen level                  : 109.07

Ichimoku cloud top             : 108.76

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 108.74

Original strategy  :

Bought at 108.45, met target at 109.45

Position :  - Long at 108.45

Target :  - 109.45

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has jumped in US morning, our long position entered at 108.45 met indicated upside target at 109.45 (with 100 points profit), adding credence to our view that temporary low has been formed at 108.13, although consolidation with mild upside bias remains and above 109.45 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.58-108.13) would bring retracement of recent decline towards 109.86-87 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance), price should falter below 110.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later.

As we have taken profit on our long position entered at 108.45, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 108.65-70 would suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring weakness to 108.30-32, break there would signal the rebound from 108.13 has ended, bring retest of this level first.