Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 0.9975

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has rebounded after finding support at 0.9942 on Friday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.0005-10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0109-0.9942) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0025 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline later. Below said support at 0.9942 would extend recent decline from 1.0171 to 0.9920-25 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9900 and reckon 0.9870-75 would hold from here.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0025 (current level of the upper Kumo) should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.0090-95 first.

GBP/USD - 1.2378

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2325, Target: 1.2445, Stop: 1.2290

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2310, Target: 1.2435, Stop: 1.2275

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 1.2436, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to support at 1.2335 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2310 (previous resistance now support) and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.2436 would extend recent upmove from 1.2109 (this month’s low) to 1.2450 but loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.2479, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this move from here and we are looking to buy cable on pullback as said previous resistance at 1.2310 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.2270-75 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2109-1.2436) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk correction to 1.2241 support.

EUR/USD - 1.0745

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0710, Target: 1.0810, Stop: 1.0675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0700, Target: 1.0800, Stop: 1.0665

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after last week’s rally, suggesting recent erratic upmove from 1.0493 low is still in progress and may extend further gain towards previous chart resistance at 1.0829, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0850-60 and price should falter well below 1.0890-00, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 1.0706 support should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 1.0675-80 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk weakness to 1.0640 (previous resistance now support) but still reckon indicated support at 1.0600 would remain intact.

USD/JPY - 112.86

Original strategy  :

Sell at 113.50, Target: 112.40, Stop: 113.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 113.50, Target: 112.40, Stop: 113.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has recovered after marginal fall to 112.46, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to the lower Kumo (now at 113.25) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 113.51-54 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 115.20-112.46 and previous resistance) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below said support at 112.46 would extend weakness to 112.35-39 (50% projection of 115.20-112.90 measuring from 113.54), then 112.10-15 (61.8% projection) but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 111.69, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on subsequent recovery as said resistance at 113.54 should limit upside, bring another decline later. Only above  the upper Kumo (now at 113.90) would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring rebound to 114.20-25 later.

GBPUSD: The pair remains on the offensive leaving risk higher in the days ahead. Support lies at the 1.2350 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.2300 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2250 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2200 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.2450 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.2500 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.2550 level followed by the 1.2600 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face upside pressure.

• Central bank speeches eyed as Fed, BoE and ECB turn more hawkish;
• Oil lower as US rigs rise again last week to 631, highest since September 2015;
• Gold spurred on by weaker dollar but rally may be running out of steam.

US futures are pointing to a marginally lower open on Monday, as traders eye tonight's speech from Donald Trump as well as a few other from policy makers from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB.

It's looking a little quiet on the economic data side today but speeches from policy makers from three major central banks and the President of the US should keep things interesting. All three central banks have been erring on the hawkish side recently, with the Fed raising interest rates last week, one BoE policy maker dissenting on leaving rates unchanged – preferring instead to hike – and the ECB having recently cut its asset purchases and suggested it could raise rates before it ends QE.

Oil is trading down around 1% today after oil rig data from Baker Hughes on Friday reported another increase, this time of 14 bringing the total to 631. The US shale industry has been quick to respond to last year's rebound in oil prices which was largely driven by an agreement between OPEC and some non-OPEC producers to cut output.

While producers remain confident that the measures taken and high level of compliance will bring the market into balance, price action would suggest traders are not buying it. The resurgence in US shale is overshadowing the efforts of other producers for now and while US stockpiles continue to build, the cuts still far outweigh the gains in the US. Still, an extension to the cuts may be necessary before the market will rebalance, which may be easier said than done as that would involve conceding further market share to the US.

Gold is currently trading higher again on the day but the rally appears to be losing some steam. While the gains since the start of the year were being spurred on by growing political risks, with the gains in February having coincided with a rally in the dollar which is unusual, the recent moves appear to be being driven purely by the softness we've seen in the greenback since last week's rate hike. To the downside, Gold could face a test around $1,220, with $1,200 below being a potentially important level. To the upside, $1,236-1,237 should be an interesting test of resistance.

Monday March 20: Five things the markets are talking about

Market volatility remains low across markets from equities to currencies and fixed-income as dealers and investors attempt to evaluate how sustainable the hopeful global economic recovery is.

Investor focus turns away from last week's central bank statements to U.S policy or Trumponomics. The White House is heading for a busy week, with anticipated House health care legislation coming to the floor and the Senate starting hearings on a Supreme Court nominee (Gorsuch).

Currently, the 'mighty' U.S. dollar is heading for its longest losing streak since last Novembers U.S Presidential election, while most major equity indexes falter near their all-time high, while treasury yields trade atop of the recent lows.

On the weekend, the G20 official communiqué upheld their commitment against competitive "devaluation," but also omitted language on promoting free trade (see below).

On the data front, investors this week will be kept busy by Euro and Japanese flash PMI's. In the U.K, price data and retail sales will be released for February. Minutes of the BoJ's January meeting and the RBA's March meeting will be published, while the RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision.

1. Global stocks see mixed results

Last week was the best week since January for global equities.

However overnight, it was a mixed performance. Equities have retreated in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Japan's stock market was closed for a holiday, while indexes rose in emerging markets.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan added +0.3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng climbed +0.7%, while Chinese shares were mixed with the CSI 300 down -0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite added +0.1%. Down-under, Aussie shares closed down -0.36%.

Elsewhere, the MSCI's emerging markets index added +0.4% to hit its highest level in more than two-years.

In Europe, equity indices are trading lower as market participants digest the weekends G20 communiqué. Banking stocks are putting pressure on the Eurostoxx while energy; commodity and mining stocks trade lower in the FTSE 100.

U.S stocks are set to open in the red (-0.2%).

Indices: Stoxx50 -0.2% at 3,436, FTSE -0.2% at 7,411, DAX -0.3% at 12,055, CAC-40 -0.4% at 5,011, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,215, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,016, SMI flat at 8,698, S&P 500 Futures -0.2%

2. Higher U.S oil production offsetting OPEC's supply cuts

Crude oil prices start the week on the back foot, pressured by rising U.S drilling activity and steady supplies from OPEC countries despite last November's agreement of production cuts.

Ahead of the U.S open, Brent crude futures are down -34c, or -0.66%, at +$51.42 per barrel. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI or light crude) has slipped -48c, or -0.98%, to +$48.30 a barrel.

Friday's date from Baker Hughes showed that U.S drillers added +14 oil rigs in the week to March 17, bringing the total count up to +631, the most in 18-months, extending a recovery that is expected to boost U.S shale production by the most in six-months in April.

Gold prices have edged up (up +0.2% to +$1,231.05 per ounce) as the 'mighty' dollar stays on the defensive after last week's "less hawkish" tone from the Fed, despite the rate hike. Yellen's cautious guidance has the market pricing in almost no chance of another rate rise in May, but rises to 50-50 for June.

Note: Markets are bracing for a packed week of Fed messaging - this week there are nine different U.S policy makers set to speak, including Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday.

3. U.S Treasury yields lower, ECB futures tightening

Currently, to many the possibility of the ECB raising interest rates before its QE program ends is a "tail risk." However, its not stopping the market from pricing in the possibility of incremental "small" hikes.

Looking at the Euro curve, FI dealers are pricing in some tightening pressures to the ECB's deposit rate (-0.4%) over the next 18-months. Dealers see a +10 bps rise by January 2018, a +15 bps rise by May 18 and a +20 bps rise by August 2018. To many, this would still be considered a "dovish" hike.

Elsewhere, U.S 10-year Treasuries are little changed at +2.50% after falling -4 bps on Friday. The yield on Aussie 10's have dropped -3 bps to +2.82%.

4. EUR to focus on French Presidential Debate

The EUR and GBP have both benefitted from a weaker dollar after the G-20 statement dropped a pledge to promote free trade, reviving concerns about U.S. policy causing disruption to trade. The dollar is also continuing its weakness from a "less hawkish" message from the Fed.

EUR/USD is up +0.2% at €1.0767, while GBP/USD has rallied to a three-week high £1.2436. USD/JPY has dropped to trade atop a three-week low around ¥112.47.

Note: EUR's gains may be limited as market focus shifts to today's French Presidential TV debate. Any narrowing of centrist candidate Macron's lead after the debate could indeed instigate fresh EUR selling.

Elsewhere, the KRW (+1.1% to $1,116) trades at a five month high outright amid continued appetite for the currency as the political picture becomes somewhat clearer. TRY ($3.6338) is recovering some of the falls prompted by Moody's downgrading Turkey's sovereign rating outlook to negative from stable late Friday.

5. G20's communiqué

The weekends post-meeting communiqué retained language on avoiding currency manipulation - previously aimed chiefly at Japan and China - but it omitted a call for 'free trade.' This may be considered a win for the U.S as it opens the door to more overt efforts by the Trump administration to shift the balance of its international relationships.

U.S Treasury Sec Mnuchin: U.S wants free, but fair and balanced trade. NAFTA would have to be reviewed, some WTO rules needed to be better enforced and older agreements may have to be renegotiated.

German Fin Min Schaeuble: G20 communiqué was adopted unanimously. G20 trade discussions were complicated; there was broad consensus that 'open trade' is necessary to strengthen global growth.

Bundesbank President Weidmann: Meeting was marked by intense struggle for a common position, still much to discuss on trade. Agreed now is the time to implement structural reforms.

Japan Fin Min Aso: No one at the meeting remarked that they were against free trade and confirmed importance of free trade despite language in communiqué.

China Fin Min Xiao Jie: Unwaveringly supports free trade and investment, opposes protectionism.

IMF's Lagarde: Global cooperation and pursuing the right policies can help achieve "strong, sustained, balanced, and inclusive growth, while the wrong ones could stop the new momentum in its tracks."

Need to know

The main focus of this week is on GBP CPI and RBNZ rate decision. It is a light week, and we don't expect any big turmoil from the standard news calendar, but there are some important events that traders should be paying attention to. Let's take a look.

Coming up

AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released on Tuesday, 21 March.

This is a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions.

Why should you care? The report creates short-term impact in the markets. The RBA might be providing cues in the currency evaluation and traders could look for some short-term trade setups. Through the statement, traders can get a hint of future policy outcomes.

GBP CPI is due on Tuesday, 21 March.

The report measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumer.

Why should you care? This could be the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.

NZD GDT Price Index is out on Tuesday, 21 March.

GDT measures the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries.

USD Crude Oil Inventories are due on Wednesday, 22 March.

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector. Previous data showed a -0.2m barrels decrease.

NZD Official Cash Rate decision is released on Wednesday, 22 March.

Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight is also followed by the RBNZ statement that offers clues regarding the outcome of future decisions.

Why should you care? The rate decision might priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBNZ Rate Statement that is focused on the future. NZD basket tends to move heavily with this report. Volatility is expected.

GBP Retail sales will be released on Thursday, 23 March.

Retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, released monthly, approximately 20 days after the month ends.

Why should you care? The report might create a short-term spike that traders might like to trade.

USD Fed Chief Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March.

Mrs. Yellen is supposed to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington DC, USA.

Why should you care? As the head of the major central bank who's also in control of short term interest rates, Mrs. Yellen has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders should pay attention for some subtle cues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD CPI is out on Friday, 24 March.

The report represents the overall change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? CAD currency basket tends to move with this report.

USD Core durable goods orders will be released on Friday, 24 March.

Being a leading indicator of production, these orders might either rise or drop. Rising purchase orders cue that manufacturers might increase activity.

Why should you care? The report tends to have a short-term impact on the dollar movement.

Quiet start to week despite G20 omitting language on promoting free trade

Notes/Observations

G20 Finance Ministers official Communique affirmed commitment against competitive devaluation but omitting language on promoting free trade thanks to recent threats of more protectionism from US govt

China home price gains spread in Feb amid stepped up battle against speculators

Weekend/Overnight:

G20 Summary and commentary

G20 Communique: excess FX volatility is bad for growth, affirms commitment against competitive devaluation; omits language on promoting free trade

US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: US wants free but fair and balanced trade. NAFTA would have to be reviewed, some WTO rules needed to be better enforced and older agreements may have to be renegotiated

German Fin Min Schaeuble: G20 Communique was adopted unanimously. G20 trade discussions were complicated; there was broad consensus that open trade is necessary to strengthen global growth. No controversy on FX at G20

Bundesbank President Weidmann: no consensus at G20 meeting on further development of trade system. Meeting was marked by intense struggle for a common position, still much to discuss on trade. Agreed now is the time to implement structural reforms

Japan Fin Min Aso: No one at the meeting remarked that they were against free trade and confirmed importance of free trade despite language in communique

China Fin Min Xiao Jie: Unwaveringly supports free trade and investment, opposes protectionism

IMF's Lagarde: Global cooperation and pursuing the right policies can help achieve strong, sustained, balanced, and inclusive growth, while the wrong ones could stop the new momentum in its tracks

Asia:

North Korea has conducted a test of a new high-thrust engine at its Tongchang-ri rocket launch station would help North Korea achieve world-class satellite launch capability

Europe:

UK Trade officials said to consider proposing a transitional decade-long deal to EU that includes no tariffs under WTO clause if Brexit negotiations ended with no trade deal - Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem calls for ESM bailout fund to be turned into a European IMF

German Defense Min von der Leyen: "There is no debit account in NATO" (rejects Trump's claim that Germany owes NATO/US large sums of money for defense)

Germany Social Democrats (SPD) officially elected Martin Schulz as their leader and challenger to Chancellor Angela Merkel for the national election in September

German DIHK Chambers of Commerce: Hard Brexit' would severely hit German economy

Americas:

Brazil govt said to detain meatpacking executive after raids in rotten meat probe

President Trump: Meetings on health care bill are going well; North Korea is "acting very badly"

Energy:

Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 789 v 768 w/w (+2.7%) (9th straight weekly rise)

Economic Data

(NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Confidence: 16 v 14e

(DE) Germany Feb PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e

(TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders Y/Y: 22.0% v 16.1%e

Fixed Income Issuance:

None seen

Index snapshot (as of 09:30 GMT)

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2% at 3,436, FTSE -0.2% at 7,411, DAX -0.3% at 12,055, CAC-40 -0.4% at 5,011, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,215, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,016, SMI flat at 8,698, S&P 500 Futures -0.2%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading lower in the morning session as market participants digest the G20 Communique from the weekend, and as oil prices trade lower intraday weighing on sentiment; Banking stocks generally lower with sector losses led by shares of Deutsche Bank after releasing its annual report; Energy, commodity and mining stocks trading lower in the FTSE 100 as oil and copper prices trade lower intraday; Chinese markets ending generally higher with the Nikkei closed overnight on Spring Equinox holiday.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Destination XL, Gulf Resources, Movado Group, and Shenandoah Telecom.

Equities (as of 09:20 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [Ingenico ING.FR -2.1% (Atos refutes speculation that Worldline subsidiary preparing Ingenico bid)]

Financials: [Aviva AV.UK +0.4% (Reportedly working with Goldman Sachs to sell Friends Provident International; said to be valued at $700M), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2.0% (annual report), Euronext ENX.FR -0.2% (Collaborates with Morningstar in European Indices and Derivatives Launch), Hansteen Holdings HSTN.UK +2.8% (Confirms disposal of its German and Dutch portfolios for €1.28B to funds advised by affiliates of Blackstone Group and M7 Real estate; FY16 results), Phoenix Group Holdings PHNX.UK +1.6% (FY16 results), Talanx TLX.DE -0.6% (FY16 results)]

Healthcare: [AB Science AB.FR +10.6% (positive top-line results of final analysis from study AB10015 of masitinib in ALS), EKF Diagnostics EKF.UK +5.6% (shareholder update, reorganization, FY16 results)]

Industrials: [GKN GKN.UK +0.3% (may issue £250M in debt to correct £2B pension deficit)]

Speakers

ECB's Visco (Italy): Cannot signal end of QE and still keep rates low; may shorten the break between exit from QE and first rate hike.

ECB: Banks need to implement realistic and ambitious strategies for Non-performing loan (NPL) reduction

Russia Fin Min Siluanov saw 2017 GDP growth between 1.5-2.0% and noted the RUB currency (Ruble) was 10-12 stronger than what fundamentals suggested

India cabinet approved 4 draft laws related to the rollout of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) that is set to begin on July 1st

Currencies

FX markets began the week on a quiet note with the recent Fed rate hike guidance still weighing upon USD upside momentum. G20 omission of language on promoting free trade provided some uncertainty in global markets but limited price action in FX for the time being.

Dealers noted that ECB seemed unable to curb speculation regarding rate increases so long as macroeconomic data remained resilient. EUR/USD was slightly higher in the session around 1.0760 area

GBP/USD was steady above the 1.24 handle as the dealers awaited the pending trigger to Article 50 before the end of March.

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 159.60 down 23 ticks in lackluster trade in a quiet morning trade as Futures decline off the opening gap higher. Support lies at 159.06 initially before testing contract low at 158.73 followed by 158.40. A move back higher targets 160.16 followed by 160.45.

Gilt futures trade at 125.96 down 29 ticks tracking Bunds having opened up above 126 at 126.10. The UK sees £2B of supply this week on Wednesday which is the equivalent of 39K Gilt futures. Support remains at 125.57 with further weakness eyeing 125.24. Resistance moves to 126.44 then 126.75, 126.87 followed by 127.35. Short Sterling futures flat to 2bp with Jun17Jun18 spread remaining at 20bp.

Monday's liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity remained unchanged at €1.355T. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €178M from €157M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $28.2B come to market last week via 31 tranches bringing issuance for the month to $87.3B and issuance for the year to $355B. In Euro denominated issuance last week saw €22.9B come to market via 36 issuers, led by multi tranche offering from Engie, RELX Finance and SCA Hygiene. Monday saw the bulk of the volume with just shy of €6.5B coming to market.

Looking Ahead

06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior

06:00 (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell 2023 and 2027 Bonds

06:00 (EU) Lithuania to sell Bonds

06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds

06:00 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)

06:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €2.7-3.2B in 2027, 2038 and 2041 OLO Bonds

06:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills

07:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2018, 2021, 2025, 2027 and 2047 bonds

07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

07:00 (DE) German Bundesbank Monthly Report

07:30 (CL) Chile Q4 GDP Q/Q: -0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 1.6% prior

07:30 (CL) Chile Q4 Current Account: -$1.2Be v -$2.8B prior

07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

08:30 (US) Feb Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +0.03e v -0.05 prior

08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior

09:00 (RU) Russia Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.6%e v 5.6% prior

09:00 (RU) Russia Feb Real Retail Sales M/M: -1.5% v -24.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -2.3% prior

09:00 (RU) Russia Feb PPI M/M: -0.8%e v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: 13.0%e v 12.7% prior

09:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

09:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €5.2-6.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF Bills

10:30 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases

10:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

10:50 (UK) BoE conducts reverse Gilt auction

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

13:10 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy and Policy in New York

Oil started the week in red and broke below strong support at $48.68 (200SMA) which held weakness on Thu/Fri after recovery stalled under ke$50 barrier.

Today's fresh weakness cracked psychological $48.00 support (also near Fibo 61.8% of $47.08/$49.61 recovery leg), signaling that correction might be over.

Daily close below $48.05 Fibo support would generate another bearish signal and risk return to $47.08 (14 Mar spike low/the lowest since 30 Nov).

Overall structure remains bearish and $47.08/$49.61 bull-leg that was capped under thick daily cloud, is seen as correction ahead of fresh extension of larger downmove from $55.01 (21 Feb high) for renewed test of $47.17 pivot (Fibo 61.8% of larger $42.19/$55.22 rally).

Broken 200SMA now acts as strong resistance which is expected to ideally cap.

However, daily RSI is entering negative territory and may delay bears, but no bullish signal seen for now.

Res: 48.67, 49.23, 49.61, 50.00
Sup: 47.95, 47.68, 47.17, 47.08