Sample Category Title

Gold Strong corrective bounce in play.

Gold has risen sharply, nearly invalidating the bearish outlook. A break of 1246 resistance would negate current bearish technical structure. Key resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 )16/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Silver Further upside gains.

Silver rose sharply Friday, invalidating the bearish outlook linked to the previous bearish pause. Correct pullback has failed to find seller indicating test of 17.56 resistance (16/03/2017 high). Strong support is given at 16.84 (27/01/2016 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude oil Weak correct bounce.

Crude oil's bearish pressures continues despite correct bounce due to a short-squeeze. The commodity had been unable to mount a serious challenge to resistance at 49.61 (08/12/2017 low) hourly support given at 47.09 (016/03/2017 low) Expected to see deeper selling pressures.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high)

EUR/CHF Choppy sideways trading.

EUR/CHF continues to chop between 11.0678 and 1.0762. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Grinding lower.

EUR/JPY rejection at 122.88 has triggered a correction. Yet, formation of bullish flag pattern indicates reversal of current selling pressure. Supports stand at 1120.55 (17/01/2017low) and 1120.09 (08/03/2017 low). Resistance stands at 122.88 (13/03/0217 high).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Bullish flag pattern.

EUR/GBP is correcting lower yet formation of bullish flag suggest reversal of current weakness targeting 0.9000. Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). Support is located at 0.864505/02/2017).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF Bearish pause.

USD/CHF has paused after sharp exit from uptrend channel. Hourly support is given at 0.9862 (31/01/2017 low) has been broken. Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to consolidate.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Trying to bounce.

USD/CAD is trying to bounce near support at 1.3277. However a break of resistance at 1.3353 is needed to invalidate the current short term bearish technical structure. The road seems wide-open for larger decline. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Monitor the key resistance at 0.7778.

AUD/USD has successfully tested the support at 0.7497. A break of the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high) is needed to open the way for further strength. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7664 (16/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Challenging its rising channel top.

EUR/USD is challenging the resistance implied by its rising trendline (around 1.0795). A break of upside would signal persistent buying pressures. Key resistance is still given at a distance 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Strong support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper increase towards resistance at 1.0874.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Challenging its declining trendline.

GBP/USD has successfully tested the support at 1.2110 and continues to bounce higher. A break of key resistance (at 1.2429) is needed to open the way for further strength. Yet, the pair remains in a clear downtrend suggesting short term correction. Key resistance can be located at 1.2570 (24/02/2017 high). Hourly support is at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Moving lower within sideways channel.

USD/JPY has failed to break key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high confirming persistent selling pressure. The pair remains stuck in sideways trading pattern between 111.36 and 115.62. Hourly support given at 112.47 (nitraday low). Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

News and Events:

USD sell-off ahead of busy week for Fed members

The USD started the week on the back foot against the backdrop of easing US yields and growing investor impatience over Trump's tax cut and fiscal stimulus reforms. High-yielding currencies were buoyed this morning as the low volatility environment encouraged investors to load on risk. In the G10 complex, the Aussie and the Kiwi were the best performers, rising 0.44% and 0.63% respectively. The Japanese yen consolidated last week's gains but did not rise further as market participants resumed the 'hunt for yield'.

The single currency continues to gain ground despite the uncertainty stemming from ongoing French elections. It seems now that the market is already pricing in a defeat from Marine Le Pen or at least indicating that it will not jeopardise the future of the eurozone. The spread between German and French two-year yields continues to narrow. After reaching 0.45%, the spread narrowed to 0.33% as German yields recovered.

After an uneventful G20 meeting in Baden-Baden, investors will have limited data to sink their teeth into. Otherwise, it will be a relatively light week, with the exception of a few speeches from Fed members, which could potentially create some waves in the FX market. We expect the USD sell-off to take a breather in the short term; however further down the road, we are not ruling out further dollar weakness as patience grows thin over Trump's promised economic boost.

G20 stumbles, China will be the long term beneficiary

The stakes on risk to global trade have risen on the back of the G20's failure to reject rising protectionism. In a surprise twist, the G20 published a communiqué removing the wording: 'resist all forms of protectionism' - highlighting the diverse group's ineffectiveness to work together to form a compromise. In a complete role reversal, US Secretary Mnuchin refused to cull protectionism, while China's President Xi was vocal in supporting free trade. The compromised statements included commitment to 'strengthening the contribution of trade to our economies'. The effect on markets was muted however, the risk of destabilising US trade policy has increased. Trump's administration has been preoccupied with domestic policy failures, forcing international issues to the side. US Secretary of State Tillerson was in China to ease bilateral tensions. However, key issues such as North Korea, FX policy concerns and trade were not discussed.

Trump's next move on currency & trade policy is anyone's guess. Instead of delivering on his campaign promise to label China a currency manipulator and slap a massive tariff on Chinese's imports from 'day one', Trump has only targeted China for cheap political points. We suspect that Trump is bluffing in regards to an aggressive Chinese policy, yet the risk of radical unilateral action cannot be ruled out. In the long run, we suspect that the biggest gainer from Trump's non-traditional actions (unstable political partner & withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership etc ) will be China, gaining total dominance in the Asian region. In this regard, we continue to value China assets. USDCNY remains stable around 6.90, on a slightly weaker fix at 6.89.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

• mars.17 Domestic Sight Deposits CHF, last 467.4b CHF / 09:00
• 4Q Labour Costs YoY, last 1,50% EUR / 10:00
• Unieuro SpA IPO press presentation EUR / 10:00
• Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey (Table) BRL / 11:25
• Jan Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, exp 0,50%, last 0,70% CAD / 12:30
• Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, exp 0,03, last -0,05 USD / 12:30
• Feb Unemployment Rate, exp 5,60%, last 5,60% RUB / 13:00
• Feb Real Disposable Income, exp 0,30%, last 8,10% RUB / 13:00
• Feb Real Wages YoY, exp 2,20%, last 3,10% RUB / 13:00
• Feb Retail Sales Real MoM, exp -1,50%, last -24,50% RUB / 13:00
• Feb Retail Sales Real YoY, exp -2,00%, last -2,30% RUB / 13:00
• mars.17 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, last 58,2 CAD / 14:00
• Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks in Loerrach, Germany EUR / 16:45
• Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in New York USD / 17:10
• mars.19 Trade Balance Weekly, last $1725m BRL / 18:00
• BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane Speaks in London GBP / 18:20
• Feb Net Migration SA, last 6460 NZD / 21:45
• 4Q BoP Current Account Balance, exp -$12.00b, last -$3.40b INR / 22:00
• mars.19 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index, last 113,1 AUD / 22:30
• Feb Tax Collections, exp 93000m, last 137392m BRL / 23:00

The Risk Today:

EUR/USD is challenging the resistance implied by its rising trendline (around 1.0795). A break of upside would signal persistent buying pressures. Key resistance is still given at a distance 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Strong support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper increase towards resistance at 1.0874. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD has successfully tested the support at 1.2110 and continues to bounce higher. A break of key resistance (at 1.2429) is needed to open the way for further strength. Yet, the pair remains in a clear downtrend suggesting short term correction. Key resistance can be located at 1.2570 (24/02/2017 high). Hourly support is at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY has failed to break key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high confirming persistent selling pressure. The pair remains stuck in sideways trading pattern between 111.36 and 115.62. Hourly support given at 112.47 (nitraday low). Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high). We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF has paused after sharp exit from uptrend channel. Hourly support is given at 0.9862 (31/01/2017 low) has been broken. Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to consolidate. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

EUR/USD has started the week quietly, as the pair trades at 1.0754 in the Monday session. It’s also subdued on the release front, with no major releases on the schedule. German CPI slipped to 0.2%, well off the forecast of 0.7%. In the US, President Trump will speak at an event in Louisville, Kentucky. As well, FOMC member Charles Evans will deliver a speech in New York City.

The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter-point last week, but the US dollar responded with broad losses. EUR/USD jumped on the bandwagon, climbing to 5-week highs late last week. Why the negative response? Firstly, there was disappointment in the markets with the Fed policy statement, which was more dovish than expected. The rate move was priced in at over 90 percent, and there had been speculation that a red-hot US economy would propel the Fed to accelerate its pace of monetary tightening, with possibly four rate hikes this year. Instead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that further rate hikes would be “gradual” and the Fed made no changes to its “dot plot”, with a projection for three rate hikes in 2017. As well, the US dollar may have lost ground due to traders and investors acting on “buy on rumor, sell on fact”. What’s next for Janet Yellen & Co? Analysts do not expect another rate move in May, while a hike in June is currently priced in at 50%. The markets will be looking for clues about the Fed’s monetary plans. A host of FOMC members will be speaking this weak, highlighted by Janet Yellen’s speech on Thursday at an event in Washington. The market will be looking for clues regarding monetary policy. In the past, Fed policymakers have presented conflicting positions, and if the market senses divisions within the Fed, the US dollar could lose ground.

Last week’s Dutch election was good news for backers of the EU. There had been fears that the far right-wing Freedom Party of Geert Wilders would make substantial gains. Wilders is a fierce critic of the EU and pledged to hold a referendum on the Netherland’s membership in the EU (with the catchy slogan “Nexit”). Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte won the election handily, bringing a sigh of relief from governments in Western Europe. Still, Wilders commands the second largest party in the country and his party will be a major player on the Dutch political scene. Next stop is France, which goes to the polls in April. Polls have far rightist Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron and running neck and neck in the first round of the presidential election on April 23. Still, Macron is expected to win in the second-round vote in May.

USD/CHF - 0.9983

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has rebounded after finding support at 0.9942 on Friday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.0005-10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0109-0.9942) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0025 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline later. Below said support at 0.9942 would extend recent decline from 1.0171 to 0.9920-25 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9900 and reckon 0.9870-75 would hold from here.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0025 (current level of the upper Kumo) should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.0090-95 first.

GBP/USD - 1.2407

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2325, Target: 1.2445, Stop: 1.2290

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2325, Target: 1.2445, Stop: 1.2290

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.2335, suggesting recent upmove from 1.2109 (this month’s low) is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.2445-50, however, loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.2479, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this move from here and we are looking to buy cable on pullback as said support at 1.2335 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below previous resistance at 1.2310 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk correction to 1.2265-70 but price should stay above indicated support at 1.2241.

EUR/USD - 1.0751

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0710, Target: 1.0810, Stop: 1.0675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0710, Target: 1.0810, Stop: 1.0675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after last week’s rally, suggesting recent erratic upmove from 1.0493 low is still in progress and may extend further gain towards previous chart resistance at 1.0829, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0850-60 and price should falter well below 1.0890-00, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 1.0706 support should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 1.0675-80 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk weakness to 1.0640 (previous resistance now support) but still reckon indicated support at 1.0600 would remain intact.

USD/JPY - 112.84

Original strategy  :

Sell at 113.50, Target: 112.40, Stop: 113.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 113.50, Target: 112.40, Stop: 113.85

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 113.54, suggesting recent decline from 115.51 is still in progress and may extend further weakness to 112.35-40 (50% projection of 115.20-112.90 measuring from 113.54), then 112.10-15 (61.8% projection), however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 111.69, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on subsequent recovery as said resistance at 113.54 should limit upside, bring another decline later. Only above  the upper Kumo (now at 113.90) would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring rebound to 114.20-25 later.