Sample Category Title

Spot Gold maintains positive near-term tone and consolidating under $1233 (top of two-day post-Fed bullish acceleration from $1197).

Failure to clearly break above daily Kijun-sen at $1229 (barrier was cracked but no close above) signals consolidation, before bulls resume.

Bullishly aligned daily studies are also supportive, with thickening daily cloud that contained $1263/$1195 pullback, continuing to underpin.

Close above Kijun-sen barrier will be bullish signal for extension towards $1237 (Fibo 61.8% of $1263/$1195), with extended downticks expected to find solid support at $1221 (hourly cloud top / broken Fibo 38.2% of $1263/$1195).

Alternatively, extension below the latter and violation of $1213 (daily cloud top / Tenkan-sen) would generate stronger bearish signal.

Res: 1229, 1233, 1237, 1244
Sup: 1224, 1221, 1215, 1213

Weekly

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Bullish engulfing
• Time of formation: 02 May 2016
• Trend bias: Up

Daily

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
• Time of formation: 19 Oct 2016
• Trend bias: Up


USD/CAD – 1.3333




Although the greenback has retreated quite sharply this week and further consolidation below recent high of 1.3599 would be seen and initial downside risk remains for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3272), reckon downside would be limited to 1.3250 and bring another rebound later, above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3406) would bring rebound to 1.3495-00 but break there is needed to signal the retreat from 1.3535 has ended, bring retest of this level. looking ahead, only a break of this level would retain bullishness and extend early erratic upmove from 1.2461 low to 1.3599, then 1.3660-70 but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3700 and risk from there is seen for a retreat later. 

On the downside, whilst initial fall to 1.3270-75 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.23240-50 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Only below previous resistance at 1.3210 would abort and signal top has indeed been formed at 1.3535, bring further fall to 1.3160-65 and possibly towards 1.3100 but price should stay well above support at 1.3056, bring rebound later. Only a daily close below this level would revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.2969 has indeed ended, bring further fall to 1.3000 first but said support at 1.2969 should remain intact.

Recommendation: Buy at 1.3250 for 1.3450 with stop below 1.3150.


On the weekly chart, despite last week’s rise to 1.3535, this week’s retreat looks set to form a black candlestick and consolidation below resistance at 1.3535 would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3284) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3252) would limit downside and bring another rebound, above 1.3400 would bring rebound to this week’s high at 1.3495 but a weekly close above there is needed to signal retreat from 1.3535 has ended, bring retest of 1.3535, above there would extend recent rise from 1.2969 to indicated resistance at 1.3599, however, a break of this resistance is needed to retain bullishness and signal upmove from 1.2461 (2016 low) has resumed for headway to 1.3700 and later towards 1.3835-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4690-1.2461) which is likely to cap upside.

On the downside, although pullback to 1.3280-85 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3252)and bring another rise later. A drop below previous resistance at 1.3210 would suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.3150-60, break there would add credence to this view and signal the rebound from 1.2969 has ended, bring further fall to towards 1.3083, however, indicated support at 1.3056 support should hold.

Bull-leg from 0.7489 (09 Mar correction low) is showing strong hesitation at 0.7700 barrier, signaled by repeated failure to clearly break above it.

Near-term structure, however, remains bullish and underpinned by rising daily cloud that also contained recent corrective phase (0.7739/0.7489).

Easing from fresh recovery highs at 0.7717 so far found footstep at 0.7663 (Fibo 23.6% of 0.7489/0.7517 rally top of thick hourly cloud), but extended dips cannot be ruled out.

Strong support at 0.7630 (hourly cloud base / Fibo 38.2%) should contain to prevent risk of deeper pullback and reversal signal.

Near-term focus remains at 0.7739 (23 Feb high) and 0.7776 (08 Nov peak) in extension.

Res: 0.7692, 0.7717, 0.7739, 0.7758
Sup: 0.7663, 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7576

Near-term sentiment remains negative, as steep post-Fed fall extended on Thursday and cracked pivotal support at 113.13 (Fibo 61.8% of 111.67/115.49 rally / rising 100SMA), but failed to close below.

Recent strong upside rejection that formed Bull-trap pattern and subsequent strong acceleration lower, confirmed reversal and signal further downside.

Eventual close below 113.13 is needed to confirm bearish continuation and expose next target at 112.57 (Fibo 76.4% retracement.

Thickening daily cloud continues to heavily weigh on near-term action, which is so far holding below initial barrier at 113.58 (daily Kijun-sen), guarding daily cloud base (113.90), where extended upticks should be ideally capped.

Res: 113.47, 113.58, 113.90, 114.19
Sup: 113.13, 112.89, 112.57, 112.00

Cable maintains strong bullish sentiment that came in play after Fed and accelerated further after BoE on Thursday. Two-day rally peaked at 1.2375, being so far capped by falling 30SMA and just ticks ahead of base of daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.2379 and 1.2435). Break above the cloud would generate another strong bullish signal for further retracement of 1.2568/1.2107 downleg. Meantime, consolidative/corrective phase could be expected ahead of fresh attempts higher. Broken 20SMA marks immediate support at 1.2315, with extended dips to hold above 1.2240 zone (yesterday's low/daily Tenkan-sen line).

Res: 1.2379, 1.2392, 1.2435, 1.2459
Sup: 1.2315, 1.2272, 1.2239, 1.2200

The Euro closed above Fibo 76.4% barrier at 1.0748 on Thursday, confirming strong bullish stance after Fed.

This signals further upside and full retracement of 1.0827/1.0492 downleg as likely near-term scenario.

The pair is on track for the third consecutive bullish weekly close that confirms the notion.

Overbought near-term studies suggest that final push towards 1.0827 target might be preceded by corrective dip.

Yesterday's low at 1.0704 marks initial support, ahead of daily cloud top at 1.0681, which is expected to keep downside protected.

However, stronger pullback on end-of-week profit taking cannot be ruled out. Below cloud top, daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines offer next supports at 1.0652 and 1.0637 respectively.

Any extension below the latter would weaken near-term structure and risk test of lower breakpoint at 1.0605 (daily Ichimoku cloud base).

Res: 1.0781, 1.0800, 1.0827, 1.0872
Sup: 1.0738, 1.0704, 1.0681, 1.0652

On the hourly chart of DAX, we are looking at a possible reversal from the highs being made, with price now trading lower around the 12044 level. Well, we expect a sharp fall to follow from current levels, as we have been following an ending diagonal of a higher degree within the red wave 5). We know that ending diagonals are powerful reversal patterns, that tend to make sharp reversal, when they are completed. So we see a potential top at the 12178 level, and a breach beneath the 11946 level would indicate more weakness to follow.

German DAX, 1H

EUR/USD

Current level - 10776

The pair failed to break below 1.0712 support and the uptrend has been renewed, reaching new local high at 1.0780. The overall bias remains bullish above 1.0745, for a test of 1.0828 peak. Crucial on the downside is 1.0704 low.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 113.28

The bias is neutral within the tight range between 113.50 and 112.90, but a violation of the lower boundary will signal a bearish outlook for 111.60 static support.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2367

Yesterday's unsuccessful attempt at 1.2250 led to a renewal of the upmove and current bias remains positive, for a test at 1.2400 resistance, towards 1.2570 area. Initial intraday support lies at 1.2300 and crucial on the downside is 1.2250.

USD/CHF - 0.9959

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9967

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9979

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0046

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0019

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0020, Target: 0.9920, Stop: 1.0055

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting recent decline from 1.0171 is still in progress and may extend further weakness to 0.9920-25, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9900 and reckon 0.9870-75 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a strong rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as the lower Kumo (now at 1.0019) should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.0090-95 first.

GBP/USD - 1.2357

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2349

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2309

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2258

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2210

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2300, Target: 1.2400, Stop: 1.2265

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2300, Target: 1.2400, Stop: 1.2265

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has maintained a firm undertone after this week’s rally, adding credence to our view that the rise from 1.2109 low is still in progress for retracement of recent decline, hence further gain to previous support at 1.2384 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2410-15 and reckon 1.2440-50 would hold, price should falter well below resistance at 1.2471, bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy cable on pullback as 1.2300-10 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.2265-70 would suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of said support at 1.2241 which is likely to hold on first testing.