Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.27; (P) 140.00; (R1) 140.50; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range of 138.53/142.79 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern. Below 138.53 will bring deeper fall, possibly through 136.44 support. But strong support could be seen at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. Above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.34; (P) 119.77; (R1) 120.37; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for 121.32 resistance. The corrective fall from 124.08 could have completed at 118.23, after defending 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Break of 121.31 will bring retest of 124.08 resistance. On the downside sustained break of 118.39/45 will argue that whole rise from 109.20 has completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3699; (P) 1.3767; (R1) 1.3807; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 1.3671 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.6587. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 1.3900 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our view.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8530; (P) 0.8558; (R1) 0.8608; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8402 extended higher today but stays below 0.8590 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.8590 resistance intact, we're holding on to our bearish view. That is, fall from 0.8851 is the third leg of the whole corrective pattern from 0.9304. Below 0.8402 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8303 first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target 0.8116 key cluster support level. However, on the upside, break of 0.8590 resistance will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8851 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

'Growth is being driven by robust domestic demand, stemming in turn from buoyant consumers and increased investment spending by the energy sector in particular.' - Chris Williamson, IHS Markit

US manufacturing activity rose at a stronger-than-expected pace in February, official figures showed on Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector advanced to 57.7 points last month, the highest level since December 2014, following the previous month's 56.0 points. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated a mild increase to 56.2. Wednesday's survey suggested that the US economy expanded for 93rd straight month. Data also showed the New Orders Index climbed to 65.1 last month from 60.4 in January. However, the Employment Index fell to 54.2 in February from the prior month's 56.1, surpassing analysts' expectations for a decline to 55.9. Furthermore, the ISM survey showed the Prices Paid Index dropped to 68.0 points last month, meeting forecasts and following the preceding month's 69.0. Although the reading above 50 point level still indicated higher raw materials prices. The figures indicated strong growth of sales and demand, and painted a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector over the upcoming months. After the release, the EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0529 to 1.043. Nevertheless, the Greenback's gains on Wednesday were actually driven mostly by Donald Trump's address to Congress, which boosted investor optimism.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0630; (P) 1.0646; (R1) 1.0655; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still bounded in range above 1.0629 temporary low. As long as 1.0706 resistance stays intact, deeper decline is still expected in the cross. Firm break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.0706 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0749 resistance will raise the chance of medium reversal.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

'The latest PMI signals that the UK manufacturing sector continued its solid start to the year. Although rates of expansion in output and new business lost impetus in February, growth remained comfortably above the long-run averages.' - Rob Dobson, Markit

British manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace since November 2016 last month, a private survey revealed on Wednesday. Markit reported its PMI for the UK manufacturing sector dropped to a seasonally adjusted 54.6 points in February, while the preceding month's reading was revised up from 55.7 to 55.9 points. Market analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 55.6 last month. Nevertheless, any reading above the 50 point level indicates industry expansion. Moreover, Markit said that production and new order growth remained solidly above the long-term average of 51.6 points. The figures suggested that the weaker Pound, which dropped around 12% since the Brexit vote, helped to boost sales for some manufacturing sector participants last month. The survey suggests that manufacturing output growth is likely to approach the 1.5% mark in the first quarter of 2017, which would be the best reading in the last seven years. However, some analysts claim that a high growth rate could not be maintained in the long-term. Data also showed employment rose for the seventh consecutive month in February, with job gains posted by businesses of different sizes. After the release, the British Pound fell against other major currencies, trading at 0.8521 against the Euro and 1.2371 against the Greenback.

'The Bank of Canada maintained a similar tone in its rate statement today even though activity indicators to close 2016 and in early 2017 have been generally stronger than anticipated.' - Mark Chandler, Royal Bank of Canada

As markets expected, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, pointing to significant uncertainties in the Canadian economy. The Central bank acknowledged that the economy probably expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in the final quarter of 2016 but left its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.50%, saying that the economy remained below its production capacity and inflation growth was driven mostly by temporary factors. The Bank was forced to cut its key rate twice in 2015 in order to cope with a sharp fall in oil prices. The BoC said it would continue to monitor the risks outlined at its January policy meeting. Back in January, the Central bank indicated Donald Trump's presidency as one of the biggest sources of economic uncertainty for Canada. Last month, the US President promised to start 'tweaking' the trade relationship between Canada and the US. However, his Wednesday's speech to Congress provided no details on the matter. The United States is by far the largest destination for Canadian products, with over 75% of Canada's total exports going to the US. After the statement , the Canadian Dollar hit its five week low against its US counterpart, as a higher probability of a rate hike by the Fed gave opportunity to the Greenback to climb against other currencies.

'The Bloomberg dollar index was up 0.3 percent, paring a gain of as much as 1 percent from its Tuesday low that was spurred by two Fed officials signaling that a rate hike would be under consideration at the central bank's March meeting.' - Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the common European currency continued its way lower against the Greenback in accordance with the previous forecast. Previously, during Wednesday's trading session it seemed that the rate will fall below the 1.05 mark. However, that did not occur due to various fundamental reasons. As a result the rate managed to slightly gain by the end of the day, and with it the fall to the weekly S1 at 1.0491 has been delayed. Although, it is still clear that the rate is set to fall to the before mentioned support level.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders are neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long on Thursday. Meanwhile, 62% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

'On top of soft data from the UK recently ... these fresh signals of a 'hard Brexit' and the risk of another Scottish referendum, enhances our view that the broader outlook for sterling remains negative.' – IronFX (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook

The Cable experienced another decline on Wednesday, with concerns over Brexit continuing to weigh on the British Pound. Another slide down is expected, which would be the fifth consecutive one, with the pair slowly approaching the multi-year low of 1.1947. The closest significant support is the monthly S1, located at 1.2250, although its breach would not be a surprise. As a result, the 1.22 major could soon be pierced, and another step closer to multi-year low made. Meanwhile, technical indicators are bolstering the possibility of the negative outcome, as they keep giving bearish signals today.

Traders' Sentiment

Bullish traders sentiment remains unchanged at 59% today, but the portion of purchase orders edged higher in the last 24 hours, namely from 43 to 52%.