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AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7748 last week but quickly reversed. The development argues that rise from 0.7158 is possibly completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Meanwhile, the pair is also bounded inside range of 0.7144/7833. A breakout, upside or downside, is needed to clear the outlook.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the downside this week for 0.7409 support first. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.7683 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3263 last week and then drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered. Subsequent recovery was relatively weak as it was limited by 1.3408. Overall development is unchanged though. Fall from 1.3534 is seen as a correction only. Rise from 1.2968 is expected to resume later to extend through the whole medium term rise from 1.2460 through 1.3598.

Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.3408 will turn bias to the upside for 1.3534. Break will target 1.3598 high next. On the downside, below 1.3263 will extend the fall from 1.3534. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

GBP/JPY dipped through 138.53 support last week to 137.75. But the cross quickly recovered since then. The development suggests that choppy decline from 144.77 is in progress and should head lower. But there is no change in the view that price actions from 148.42 are forming a consolidation pattern. And, larger rise from 122.36 would resume later.

Initial bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral this week first. Further fall is mildly in favor as long as 140.60 resistance holds. Below 137.75 will target 136.44 support and below. But we'd expect support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 140.60 resistance will turn bias to the upside and send GBP/JPY through 144.77 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we'd expect another fall through 116.83 low.

EUR/JPY's fall from 122.88 extended to as low as 119.31 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Overall, there is no change in the view that price actions from 124.08 are developing into a consolidative pattern. While more sideway trading could be seen, an upside breakout is expected later to resume the larger rise from 109.20.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is neutral this week first. Below 119.31 will bring deeper fall. But we'd expect strong support from 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.81 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 124.08 high.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low. Overall, long term rang trading will continue.

EUR/GBP's corrective fall extended to as low as 0.8604 last week and took out 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8639. The decline was deeper than expected but the cross quickly recovered after drawing support from 55 day EMA. The development mixed up the near term outlook a bit. But overall, there is no change in the view that price actions from 0.8303 are forming a corrective pattern, as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. The question is what exact pattern it's turning out to be. Decline from 0.9304 is expected to resume later.

Initial bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral this week first. With 0.8699 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor. Below 0.8604 will target 61.8% of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8549 and possibly below. In that case, we'll look for support above to 0.8402 to bring another rebound before completing that correction from 0.8303. ON the upside, above 0.8699 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8786. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 to finish the pattern from 0.8303.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

EUR/AUD's pull back was continued at 1.3872 last week. Subsequent rally and break of 1.4183 resistance indicates resumption hole rebound from 1.3624. The development also affirms our bullish view. That is, medium term trend is reversing after defending 1.3671 key support level, on on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside this week. Further rally should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.4183 from 1.3872 at 1.4431. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 1.4721 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4051 minor support will turn focus back to 1.3872 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/CHF stays in range of 1.0683/0823 last week and outlook is unchanged. With 1.0683 minor support intact, we'd slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. But such view is dampened by prior rejection from the falling 55 week EMA.

Initial bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

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