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USD/JPY surged to 157.33 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Above 157.33 will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will bring deeper fall as another falling leg. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.68) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD fell to 1.3507 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3479) to complete the corrective pullback from 1.3867. On the upside, break of 1.3732 resistance will bring retest of 1.3867 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.4284 key resistance. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) still in progress and should target 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF rebounded further to 0.7816 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Another rise might be seen but upside should be capped by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7896) to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will suggest near term reversal and target 0.8039 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's stayed in sideway trading last week as price actions from 0.7093 developed into a near term consolidation pattern. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6420 to 0.7093 at 0.6836. On the upside, break of 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, rise fro 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3480 short term bottom extended higher last week but lost momentum after hitting 1.3723. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3791) to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 1.3625 will bring retest of 1.3480. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3569) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY failed to break through 214.83 decisively last week and retreated back into established range. Current development suggests that price actions from 214.83 are merely a near term consolidation pattern. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.83 at 208.19 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 214.83/98 will extend larger up trend to 220.90 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.02) holds.

EUR/JPY's extended rebound last week argues that price actions from 186.86 are forming a near term consolidation pattern only. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Below 184.26 support will bring another fall. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27 to bring rebound. ON the upside, decisive break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But there is not clear sign of topping yet. On resumption, next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next. Meanwhile, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 173.80) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8611 last week but quickly rebounded after drawing support from 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). But upside is limited below 0.8744 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8744 will argue that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction. Further rally should be seen back to retest 0.8863 high. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8618/31 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8626) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD fell further to 1.6759 last week but recovered after hitting 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7149 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6759 and sustained trading below 1.6851 will extend larger fall to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next. However, break of 1.7145 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 will argue that it's already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.5913. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7362) holds even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6605) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

EUR/CHF stayed in consolidations above 0.9141 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited below 0.9235 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9141 will extend larger down trend to 261.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9341) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the long term picture, EUR/CHF is also holding well inside long term falling trend channel. Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as falling 55 M EMA (now at 0.9739) holds.