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Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.75; (P) 157.01; (R1) 157.51; More...

USD/JPY retreated quickly after brief spike to 157.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Above 157.65 will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will bring deeper fall as another falling leg. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.68) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3540; (P) 1.3581; (R1) 1.3654; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.3507 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3483). Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger scale correction, and target 1.3342 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3732 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3867. Firm break there will resume larger up trend towards 1.4284 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming by breaking through 1.3787 high. Further rally should be seen to 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7746; (P) 0.7767; (R1) 0.7782; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Another rise might be seen but upside should be capped by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7890) to complete the corrective bounce fro 0.7603. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will suggest near term reversal and target 0.8039 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8152) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6933; (P) 0.6979; (R1) 0.7061; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point, and consolidations could continue below 0.7093. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6420 to 0.7093 at 0.6836. On the upside, break of 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3624; (P) 1.3675; (R1) 1.3725; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3781) to complete the corrective bounce from 1.3480. On the downside, break of 1.3625 will bring retest of 1.3480. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9153; (P) 0.9167; (R1) 0.9181; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.9141. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited below 0.9235 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9141 will extend larger down trend to 261.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9341) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8690; (R1) 0.8706; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.8744 resistance will argue that fall from 0.8863 has completed at 0.8611 as a correction. Further rally should be seen back to retest 0.8863 high. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8629) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6759; (P) 1.6912; (R1) 1.7000; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.6759. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7149 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6759 and sustained trading below 1.6851 will extend larger fall to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, break of 1.7145 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 will argue that it's already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.5913. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7344) holds even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.40; (P) 213.25; (R1) 214.88; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as consolidations from 214.83 continues. Deeper pullback cannot be ruled out. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.83 at 208.19 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 214.83/98 will extend larger up trend to 220.90 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Last week’s hectic trading ended with a rebound in technology stocks and Bitcoin. Optimism spilled across most assets that are trading on sentiment these days, including gold and silver.

Nvidia, for example, jumped nearly 8% and pushed the Dow above the 50’000 mark for the first time in history — with no major news on the wire other than CEO Jensen Huang saying, “to the extent that people continue to pay for AI and AI companies are able to generate a profit from that, they’re going to keep on doubling, doubling, doubling.”

Fair enough. But what about capacity constraints? What about the speed of demand growth potentially lagging investments that could become obsolete faster than the depreciation rates used on Big Tech balance sheets? And what about circular deals? What happens if a key customer like OpenAI misses a payment?

The point is this: markets rebounded on Friday after a chaotic week, but the fundamental questions that keep investors up at night remain firmly in place. Last week, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft announced plans to spend around $650–700 billion on AI-related investments in 2026, mostly in data centers, AI infrastructure, chips and computing capacity, as they race to dominate the AI era. That figure is far higher than earlier estimates and will flow straight into the pockets of enablers such as Nvidia, AMD, memory chipmakers and data center operators. Yet for the big spenders, a portion of this outlay seems to be a show-off — to signal dominance to others in the AI race rather than being fundamentally justified.

And big gains — like the ones we saw last Friday — can be just as unsettling as big losses. Both signal markets navigating agitated waters, where moves may not prove sustainable.

The good news is that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won — and won big — her bet in the weekend snap election. She pulled off a stunning victory, with her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) scoring a historic landslide and securing a two-thirds supermajority in the powerful lower house of parliament — even more if you include its coalition partner. That gives her party its most dominant position in decades and a strong mandate to push through an expansive fiscal agenda, particularly benefiting defense and technology. This likely helps explain why South Korea’s Kospi rebounded nearly 4% today. Still, the tech rebound could face speed bumps ahead.

Across Japanese markets, JGB yields jumped at the open, with the 10-year returning to the highest levels in a week on fiscal spending concerns. The Nikkei and Topix also jumped at the open, both hitting fresh record highs on growth and fiscal optimism, but the Nikkei later gave back most early gains — likely reflecting rising yield pressure and concerns that growth may come at a cost. The Topix, by contrast, is holding on to gains, up more than 2% at the time of writing.

The yen gapped lower at the open but quickly retraced losses, suggesting currency traders are leaning toward the idea that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would not hesitate to act if inflation runs too hot under such an expansive fiscal plan. As a result, the yen’s rebound may look like a brief honeymoon — or a bout of day-dreaming — before the reality of fiscal spending sinks in for a country whose ambitions may be running ahead of its wallet.

Away from Japan, the dollar index kicks off the week under renewed selling pressure, partly due to gains in the yen, gold and silver. The USDCHF continues to push lower after forming solid resistance earlier this month and remains one of the few assets left in the traditional safe-haven space.

Bitcoin is consolidating near the $70’000 mark this morning after successfully building support near $60’000 during last week’s slump. Still, it is hard to say whether the worst is behind us. The rebound since Friday has not even reached the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-last-week selloff, which sits near $77’000. For now, Bitcoin remains in a bearish consolidation phase.

With Big Tech earnings and spending announcements now behind us, the week ahead may see markets digest the news, reprice expectations and consolidate — barring surprise headlines from any direction. Coca-Cola, McDonalds and Cisco are among the big names that will go to the earnings confessional.

On the geopolitical front, US crude has returned to its 200-day moving average after weekend talks between the US and Iran were described as “very good” by the US President. Whether that is enough to justify easing tensions and keep oil in a bearish trend — below $64 per barrel, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the summer 2025 slide — remains to be seen. Risks remain two-sided.

On the data front, the week’s agenda is packed with key US releases, including jobs data due Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday. Expectations point to continued softening in labour markets alongside easing inflation — the ideal combination for Federal Reserve (Fed) doves.

In the absence of major data elsewhere, the US dollar is likely to remain in the driver’s seat for FX markets. Major currencies start the week higher, with the EUR/USD and cable both gaining, though support from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) policy outlooks remains uncertain. In the UK in particular, expectations that the BoE is close to a rate cut should cap upside.

The AUD/USD is back above the 70-cent level and could extend toward 0.72 on divergence between Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Fed outlooks — a move that would officially mark the end of the 2021–2025 downtrend. The AUD/JPY — one of the market’s favourite carry trades — hit a fresh record high this morning. Despite rising JGB yields and hawkish BoJ bets, rate differentials remain attractive for a further extension of the bullish trend.

The key risk is a direct FX intervention from Japanese authorities, who remain deeply concerned about the yen’s rapid depreciation and its impact on household purchasing power.