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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9042; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9087; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9091) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will suggest that the pull back has completed, and bring stronger rebound to retest 0.9223 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6583; (P) 0.6603; (R1) 0.6639; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6570) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 0.6464 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3651; (P) 1.3699; (R1) 1.3723; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3629) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9754; (P) 0.9764; (R1) 0.9778; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Break of 0.9847 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.00; (P) 167.38; (R1) 168.01; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 164.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58. Further rise would be seen to 168.64 resistance. On the downside, below 165.63 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 157.82) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.08; (P) 194.48; (R1) 195.11; More..

GBP/JPY's rebound from 191.34 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. This rebound is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen back to 197.40 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 193.82 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.34) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6260; (P) 1.6307; (R1) 1.6335; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Short Term Elliott Wave in AUDUSD suggests the pullback to 0.636 ended wave (2). The pair has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision in 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 0.6432 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 0.6407. The pair then extended higher in wave (iii) towards 0.655 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 0.6516. Final leg wave (v) higher ended at 0.6586 and this completed wave ((i)). Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 0.6464.

Up from there, wave (i) ended at 0.654 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 0.65. Pair resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 0.6647 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 0.662. Pair then extended higher 1 more leg in wave (v) to 0.6649 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 0.66 and wave (b) rally ended at 0.6644. Pair then extended lower in wave (c) towards 0.6657 which completed wave ((iv)). Near term, as far as pivot on 4.19.2024 low at 0.636 stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

AUDUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8YUIcW_JwE

The title of yesterday’s report was: will the Bank of England (BoE) cut? And the answer is yes, it is planning to cut its rates soon. This – expected and concretized dovish shift – was the major takeaway from the BoE’s latest MPC meeting that took place yesterday. None of the 9 MPC members voted to hike the policy rate yesterday, 7 of them voted to maintain it, and 2 of them voted to cut – as Dave Ramsden opted for an immediate rate cut. And because the committee members has a track record of having followed his view in the past, Mr. Ramsden’s vote to cut has been taken as a very strong signal that the BoE will be cutting its rates soon.

How soon? Governor Bailey said that the June meeting ‘is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli’. We have two sets of inflation and labour data before the next decision, so the expectations will likely swing but in the wake of the BoE meeting, the market gives a 50% for a June cut, and an August cut is seen as a sure thing.

As a result, the FTSE 100 rallied to a fresh record yesterday and Cable sold off as a kneejerk reaction to the dovish shift in the BoE’s outlook, but rebounded strongly after the weekly jobless claims data from the US came in much stronger than expected. As such, a broad-based US dollar selloff that sent Cable above the 1.25 level despite a dovish BoE, the EURUSD is drilling above the top of its ytd descending channel and is preparing to test the 50 and 200-DMA to the upside, while the USDJPY remains bid against winds and tides.

If we summarize and give a structure to the FX outlook, the major currencies are operating in a three-speed environment. The Federal Reserve (Fed) can’t cut rates because inflation is stagnating – and worse, picking up momentum to the upside, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the BoE are convinced that inflation in their homes will continue to ease and the diverging inflation dynamics keep them on path to cut their rates this summer. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), on the other hand, doesn’t want to normalize policy. The Japanese have been traumatized by decades of deflation and can’t think properly anymore. So, the macro picture is supportive for a dollar appreciation, back a further depreciation in the euro and sterling against the dollar, and further yen weakness against all of them, with the risk of seeing BoJ step in time to time to slowdown the bleeding.

The S&P500 rallied yesterday and closed from a spitting distance from an ATH level because the stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims suggested a tighter labour market and an economic slowdown that could bring the Fed to cut rates if inflation eases. And if inflation eases not, well, it is still interpreted as a good news, because then, the demand is strong enough to push prices higher. Yes, equities are winners in both cases. But there is also the stagflation scenario - where the Fed will have no option but to keep rates at higher levels for a longer period of time, praying that the inflation fever will eventually break. And that – stagflation – is the major risk to the US equity rally ahead of next week’s US inflation update.