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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6360; (P) 1.6417; (R1) 1.6511; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6267 is extending. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6515 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6267 will resume the whole decline from 1.7062 to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106 next. However, break of 1.6515 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9430; (P) 0.9455; (R1) 0.9475; More...

EUR/CHF is extending consolidation from 0.9402 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall outlook stays bearish as long as 0.9543 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 0.9407 will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9416 from 0.9683 at 0.9325.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9407 (2022 low) will resume long term down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 (2020 high) to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0760; (P) 1.0794; (R1) 1.0829; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and further decline is mildly in favor as long as 1.0827 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.0722, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0770) will extend the fall from 1.1016 short term top to retest 1.0447 support. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.0827 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2512; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2614; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. Further decline is mildly in favor as long as 1.2615 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.2501 will resume the fall from 1.2731 short term top to to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2452). Sustained break there will bring retest of 1.2036 low. However, firm break of 1.2615 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2731 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, that could still extend through 1.2731. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 o bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 EMA will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8720; (P) 0.8757; (R1) 0.8789; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Further rise remains in favor with 0.8722 minor support intact. Above 0.8819 will resume the rebound from 0.8665 short term bottom to 0.8886 support turned resistance first. However, firm break of 0.8722 will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside to resume the fall from 0.9243 through 0.8665.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8551 are currently seen as part of a corrective pattern to the decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Fall from 0.9243 is seen as the second leg for now. Deeper decline could be seen to 0.8551 low but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 0.9111 resistance will argue that the third leg has started already, and target 0.9243 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.74; (P) 145.47; (R1) 146.19; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Outlook also stays bearish with 147.14 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, 144.72 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. However, decisive break of 147.14 will dampen the bearish view, and bring stronger rally back towards 149.56/151.89 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6529; (P) 0.6571; (R1) 0.6601; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays mildly on the downside at this point. Break of 0.6524 will affirm the case of rejection by channel resistance, and resume the fall from 0.6689 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6500) and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6689 will resume the rise from 0.6269 instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.7156 as the second leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

UK's GDP contracted by -0.3% mom in October, a figure that is notably worse than the expected -0.1% mom. The primary factor contributing to this downturn was the decline in services output, which fell by -0.2% mom. Additionally, production output experienced a sharper drop of -0.8% mom, and construction output also saw a contraction of -0.5% mom.

When examining the three-month period leading up to October, UK's real GDP showed no growth compared with the three months leading to July. During this quarter, while services output saw a marginal growth of 0.1%, both production and construction outputs declined, falling by -0.7% and -0.3%, respectively.

Full UK GDP release here.

US headline inflation fell to 3.1% as expected, thanks to an almost 9% fall in gasoline prices since last year, although shelter inflation – which is where everyone sees the biggest potential for easing - remained sticky yet another month. Core inflation eased to 4% on a yearly basis, BUT headline inflation was slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis. And that small uptick has raised suspicions that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) final stretch in combating inflation may be more challenging than anticipated.

The latter triggered a mini selloff in the 2-year bond right after the data, yet the selloff didn’t last long. The US 2-year yield is about where it was yesterday morning. Crude oil fell to $68pb even though the US oil inventories fell 2.3 mio barrels according to the API.

With the latest inflation report behind us with minimal fanfare, the Fed officials will lightheartedly keep interest rates steady this month. Economic forecasts and the dot plot will play a crucial role in providing insight into the perspectives of Federal Reserve officials regarding expectations for rate cuts.

According to activity on Fed funds futures, the Fed should gently start cutting the rates by May; that possibility is given around 75% probability, slightly less than 80% before yesterday’s CPI print, while the probability of a March hike fell to around 44% from nearly 50% on that mini spike in monthly headline inflation. In summary, rate cut bets are being placed for a rate cut in March or May 2024. May the best win.

Today, we will probably face a satisfied, calm but cautious Powell, who will say that the Fed has done a great job fighting inflation, but that the rates will remain restrictive as long as needed. One dovish tweak could be deleting ‘additional policy firming’ from the post-meeting communication.

In the best-case scenario, the doves will make a mountain out of the smallest dovish details that could justify a further fall in yields. The US dollar will likely remain under pressure below the 104.30 level, the major 38.2% Fibonacci resistance that should keep the US dollar index in the bearish consolidation zone. We could see the US 10-year retreat and even – shortly – test the 4% mark to the downside, and the 2-year yield – which captures the Fed expectations – to remain between 4.50/4.70 zone. Lower than that becomes unreasonably overstretched.

In a more down-to-earth scenario, Powell will contain market optimism and rectify the rate cut bets. If so, we should see correction and consolidation in bond and stock valuations during the final weeks of the year.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3551; (P) 1.3585; (R1) 1.3625; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 1.3265 minor resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.3479. More importantly, whole correction from 1.3897 could have completed too. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for strong rally back to 1.3853/3897 resistance zone. However, break of 1.3544 minor support will turned bias back to the downside for 1.3479 and below, to resume the decline from 1.3897.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3091 is seen as the fifth leg of the whole rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). Further rally is expected as long as 1.3378 support holds, to 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. However, decisive break of 1.3378 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back to 1.3091 instead.