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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8905; (P) 0.8941; (R1) 0.8978; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9001 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 0.8850. Intraday bias will be back on the upside 55 D EMA (now at 0.9113). Sustained break there will be a strong sign of bullish reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8850 will resume larger fall from 1.0146, to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6579; (P) 0.6611; (R1) 0.6647; More...

Further decline remains mildly on the downside with 0.6664 minor resistance intact, in spite of today's recovery. On the downside, firm break of 0.6563 will resume larger decline from 0.7156, and bring deeper decline through 0.6546 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6804 at 0.6438 next. On the upside, break 0.6664 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside to extend the consolidation pattern with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3501; (P) 1.3584; (R1) 1.3633; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point, and further rally is in favor as long as 1.3521 minor support holds. Corrective pattern from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves to 1.3299. On the upside, above 1.3668 will target 1.3860/3976 resistance zone. However, firm break of 1.3521 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back towards 1.3299 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3302) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.23; (P) 169.71; (R1) 172.63; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally is in progress to retest 172.11 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend and target 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. On the downside, below 167.95 support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is likely ready to resume. Next target is 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. This will now remain the favored case as long as 165.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.01; (P) 149.22; (R1) 151.30; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should now target 153.64 projection level. On the downside, below 148.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 138.81 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8742; (P) 0.8790; (R1) 0.8816; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. Near term outlook is mixed for now. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume whole choppy decline from 0.8977. On the upside, break of 0.8874 will resume the rebound from 0.8717 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6601; (P) 1.6659; (R1) 1.6710; More...

EUR/AUD's retreat from 1.6785 extends lower today but stays well above 1.6444 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.6444 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6785 will resume larger up trend from 1.4281 to 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6949.

In the bigger picture, the solid break of 1.6434 resistance argues that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9826; (P) 0.9845; (R1) 0.9875; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the upside as long as as long as 0.9774 short term bottom holds. Current development suggests that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9704. Break of 0.9878, and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9873) will affirm this bullish case, and target 0.9995 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9972) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Market picture

According to CoinMarketCap, cryptocurrency market capitalisation grew by 2.5% over the past seven days to $1.18 trillion, but the magnitude of the increase was twice greater on Sunday. The pressure on the market resumed last night and peaked on Monday morning. And it looks like Bitcoin is again behind this decline as its price approaches 30K.

Bitcoin approached 30K again on Sunday, from where the selling intensified. The situation looks like the big players are playing games to warm up the thin market over the weekend and early trading hours in Asia, amplifying the amplitude of the move on relatively low volumes.

Worryingly, we have seen a series of declining tops in the last three weeks, and significant downside momentum is building faster and faster.

On the optimistic side, the avalanche of stop orders is not destabilising the market. Bitcoin is starting to buy back quickly as it approaches $28,000, where the 50-day moving average has shifted.

In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down five times. The average gain was 29.7%, and the average loss was 15.8%. Meanwhile, the last two Mays have disappointed BTC, with an average loss of 26% each.

News background

Glassnode recorded the most significant cryptocurrency inflows on Binance since the FTX crash last November. Often this signals a willingness to sell for dollars, but there are cases where Bitcoin sales fund the purchase of altcoins.

According to Germany’s oldest bank, Berenberg Bank, bitcoin could rise significantly after halving next year. The fact that VTC has become virtually the only crypto asset to be classified by the SEC as a commodity rather than a security could also help.

Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, has said that cryptocurrencies should be treated as investment contracts, requiring platforms offering them to register and comply with securities laws.

Investor and billionaire Ray Dalio said he has a small number of bitcoins, but because cryptocurrencies are unreliable anyway, he prefers gold. He told Bitcoin holders should be prepared for an 80% drop.

WTI oil stabilises near $75 for the third day at the lowest monthly level. The economic slowdown is dragging down the Crude, but OPEC+ coordination supports the market. Oil has returned to a range from which an exit promises to have a dam-breaking effect.

Volatility in oil declined after the market closed a 7% gap that had formed following an unexpected OPEC+ quota cut over the weekend in early April. The current level of around 75 also acted as the bottom of the trading range from December to March.

Oil’s decline accelerated in the first half of March, finding support only near $64 as markets began to price in a reversal of the Fed’s rate cut. OPEC quota cuts and Russia’s voluntary production cuts pushed the price up to $83 by mid-month.

The 200-day moving average was a critical resistance level in the second half of April. Oil failed to breach this line and remained within the bearish trend. At the beginning of the week, the price fell below the 50-day moving average in a sharp move. The dynamics of oil near key moving averages prove that the market remains bearish, with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

The $65-67 area looks like an attractive target for the bears. There are many pivot points from 2021 onwards. Before that, there was significant resistance in 2019. In addition, the 200-week moving average, the most crucial indicator of the long-term trend in commodities, is close to $67.

Nevertheless, sellers should remain cautious, as a sustained decline in prices will almost certainly attract the attention of OPEC.