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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8947; (P) 0.8970; (R1) 0.8985; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Another decline cannot be ruled out with 0.9070 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8858 will resume the down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.9070 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6696; (P) 0.6722; (R1) 0.6753; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as corrective pattern from 0.6563 is still extending. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3365; (P) 1.3383; (R1) 1.3407; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as it's staying in the corrective pattern from 1.3299. Overall, fall from 1.3860 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976. In case of another decline, down side should be contained by 1.3224/61 support zone to bring rebound. Break of 1.3552 should turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8817; (P) 0.8825; (R1) 0.8840; More...

EUR/GBP is still bounded in range of 0.8717/8864 despite today's decline. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8864 will extend the rebound from 0.8717 to 0.8924 resistance. Further break there should confirm completion of the choppy decline from 0.8977, and should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6264; (P) 1.6293; (R1) 1.6339; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6434 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9817; (P) 0.9830; (R1) 0.9849; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9797 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Deeper decline is in favor with 0.9889 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.9797 will target 0.9704 support and possibly below, as whole corrective pattern from 1.0095 extends. On the upside, though, break of 0.9889 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9989) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.80; (P) 147.09; (R1) 147.45; More....

Upside momentum remains unconvincing in EUR/JPY as seen in 4H MACD. Still, further rally is expected as long as 145.66 resistance turned support holds. Rise from 137.37 should target 148.38 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 149.75 long term resistance. However, break of 145.66 will turn bias back to the downside for 142.53 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.44) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. Decisive break there will resume long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40.

• Emerging markets and China’s risk premiums over Japan have been narrowed.
• Japan is considered a potential defensive play as its stock market valuation is much lowered than the rest of the world.
• Nikkei 225 is consolidating within a long-term uptrend phase in place since March 2009.

The Japanese stock market has underperformed and languished against the US since the infamous burst of Japan’s property bubble in early 1990 that led to two decades of sticky deflation. Even though, the implementation of “Abenomics” in December 2012; a potent mix of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies had led to an accumulated gain of 150% seen in the Nikkei 225 till the end of 2022, it is still 36% below its all-time high level of 38,957 printed in December 1989 before the bursting of the property bubble from its current level of 28,590 at this time of the writing.

Why this time may be different?

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. The underperformance of Japanese equities against the rest of the world since 1990 has been attributed to two main factors; localized demographics where Japan’s birth rate declined faster than the increase in her aging population which led to lower productivity.

Secondly, the entry of China into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 kickstarted two decades of globalization that saw the emergence and attractiveness of a new investing asset class, emerging markets over the prior 1980s decade of Japan’s electronics exports dominance.

Fast forward to today, the world is in a much different place; globalization has broken down since the US-China trade war implemented by the Trump administration in 2018, and under the current Biden administration, the rivalry between the two major superpowers remains intact, this time round is the “battle” of securing high-end semiconductor chips.

The impact of such “hostilities” between the US and China has led to a breakdown of globalization and the “emerging markets risk premium” once sought after by international investors has either narrowed or diminished. Also, China is now facing an aging population problem where its population shrank to a level below total deaths in 2022, the first time such an occurrence happen since the 1960s.

Hence, the edge once enjoyed by China and emerging markets over Japan is likely to take a backseat.

Japan’s central bank, BoJ may be forced to normalize its ultra-easy monetary policy

On 20 December, BoJ made a significant adjustment to the controlled bandwidth of its yield curve control (YCC) policy; another form of “creative” quantitative easing program that was introduced in September 2016. The latest YCC policy adjustment has now allowed the 10-year JGB bond yield to move 50 basis points on either side of the 0% target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band.

This “step-up” tweak is likely to be a precursor to an interest rate hike in 2023 by the BoJ as it normalized its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan due to a growth in inflationary pressures where the core inflation has increased steadily above 2% year-on-year (the central bank’s target) for several consecutive months since April 2022.

Given that prices of market-based transacted financial instruments are determined by a significant portion of greed and fear, thus a small policy adjustment or tweak is likely to trigger a butterfly effect in the global financial markets.

Also, bearing in mind that Japanese corporations (financial institutions & non-financial institutions) are one of the highest net exporters of capital on a global scale as they seek to invest overseas to get a better return, and such flows of funds may start to flow back to Japan due to the normalization of domestic monetary policy.

For example, overseas fixed income yield premium over similar Japanese investment instruments is likely to be narrowed, hence making outbound investments unattractive for Japanese corporations on a hedged currency basis. Hence, it may trigger a positive feedback loop in the Japanese stock market.

Japan’s stock market may be considered a defensive play

Source: TradingView as of 19 Apr 2023

Japan 225 Technical Analysis – Consolidating within a long-term secular uptrend phase with positive elements

Source: TradingView as of 19 Apr 2023

Since its 31-year high of 30,835 printed on 14 September 2021, the Japan 225 Index (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) has evolved into a consolidation “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration for 18 months within a long-term secular uptrend in place since 10 March 2009 low of 6,945.

The upper (resistance) and lower (support) boundaries of the “Symmetrical Triangle” is at 28,665 and 25,630 respectively.

The monthly RSI oscillator has staged an impending bullish breakout from its corresponding descending resistance which indicates a revival of long-term upside momentum that may translate to a potential bullish breakout of the “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration of the Index.

However, a break with a weekly close below 24,190 long-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish tone for a decline towards the next support at 20,700.

USD/CAD bounces off critical floor

The Canadian dollar retreats as the annual CPI showed a deceleration last month. The pair is still holding on to the February’s lows around 1.3300 with traders buying the dip in this major demand zone. The former support at 1.3430 is the first hurdle to lift to ease the downward pressure. Then the bulls will need to clear 1.3550 near the 30-day SMA before they could hope for a sustained recovery. Otherwise, a break below the critical level of 1.3300 would force buyers to bail out and trigger a bearish reversal in the medium-term.

EUR/GBP hits resistance

The pound bounces back as solid wage growth raises the odds of BoE rate rise. On the daily chart, the pair is consolidating its gains over 0.8720 which shows strong enough interest in keeping the bullish bias intact in the medium-term. However, intraday actions may see some choppy waters after the bulls hit a wall at 0.8860. 0.8810 is the first support with 0.8760 at the base of the current bounce as a second line of defence. A close above 0.8860 may attract momentum buyers and send the pair to March’s high of 0.8920.

Dow Jones 30 extends further

The Dow Jones 30 steadies as the first-quarter earnings season kicks off. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart after the index cleared the March high of 33600 is a sign of improved sentiment after the index started the year on the defensive. The bulls would flush out the remaining selling interests if they manage to lift offers at the year’s peak of 34400, then the path would be clear for an extension towards the all-time high of 37000 from January 2022. On the downside, 33600 has become a support in case of a pullback.

DXY:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently experiencing a bearish momentum with a potential for further downward movement. The first support level is at 101.51, which is an overlap support and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The second support level is at 100.86, which is a multi-swing low support level.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is at 102.20, which is an overlap resistance and coincides with the 100% Fibonacci projection level. The second resistance level is at 102.64, which is an overlap resistance and coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

Given the bearish momentum, the price may continue to drop towards the first support level. If the price bounces off this level, it may rise towards the first resistance level. However, if the first support level is broken, the price may drop towards the second support level. Conversely, if the first resistance level is broken, the price may rise towards the second resistance level.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart is currently experiencing bullish momentum as it is in a bullish ascending channel. If the momentum continues, there is a possibility that the price could potentially make a bullish break through the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance level.

The 1st support level is at 1.0910, which is a good support level as it is an overlap support and is also at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. Another support level is the 2nd support level at 1.0831, which is a swing low support.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance level is at 1.0976, which is a good resistance level as it is an overlap resistance and is at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2nd resistance level is at 1.1071, which is a swing high resistance.

been tested multiple times in the past and has shown to provide a strong resistance zone for price.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart is bullish, indicating a potential continuation towards the first resistance level. Price is currently trading above an ascending support line, which is in line with the bullish momentum of the chart.

The first support level is at 1.2346, which is a strong overlap support, coinciding with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. The second support level is at 1.2273, which is another overlap support, coinciding with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.

The first resistance level is at 1.2541, which is a swing high resistance, coinciding with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection. If price were to break through this level, it could potentially trigger a strong bullish acceleration towards the intermediate resistance level at 1.2440, which is also a swing high resistance.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart is currently showing bearish momentum as price is below a major descending trend line, which suggests further downward movement. The 1st resistance is at 0.9006, and it is a good level for potential pullbacks as it is an overlap resistance, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement also lines up with this level. If price fails to break this level, it could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support at 0.8869. This level is a multi-swing low support, and could provide a strong bounce for the pair.

However, if price were to break the 1st support, the intermediate support at 0.8956 could provide a short-term pause to the bearish momentum. If the intermediate support fails to hold, the next level that price could potentially drop to is the 2nd support at 0.8749, which is also a multi-swing low support.

USD/JPY:

The overall momentum of the USD/JPY chart appears to be bearish, but there is a potential for a short-term bullish rise towards the first resistance level before reversing and dropping towards the first support.

Currently, the USD/JPY price is approaching the first resistance at 134.73, which is a strong overlap resistance and coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. A rise towards this resistance level in the short term could be possible before a reversal occurs.

However, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, and the price could potentially drop towards the first support at 133.72. This support level is also a strong overlap support, which adds to its significance. If the price were to break below the first support level, it could drop towards the second support level at 132.36. This level is a multi-swing low support and also lines up with a 61.80% Fibonacci projection, making it a strong potential support level.

On the upside, the USD/JPY price may encounter intermediate resistance at 135.37, which is a pullback resistance level. If the price were to break through this resistance, it could rise towards the second resistance level at 136.09.

AUD/USD:

The AUDUSD chart appears to be in a neutral momentum phase. It’s possible that prices could move within the range of the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.

The 1st support level at 0.6680 is a strong overlap support with a 78.60% Fibonacci Projection lining up with it, suggesting that it could hold as a support level. The 2nd support level at 0.6624 is a multi-swing low support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 0.6785 is an overlap resistance with a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement lining up with it. The 2nd resistance level at 0.6873 is a pullback resistance with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement lining up with it.

NZD/USD:

The overall momentum of the NZD/USD chart is bullish, suggesting that there may be a potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

Currently, the 1st support level for NZD/USD is at 0.6160, which is a multi-swing low support level. In addition, there is also a 2nd support level at 0.6097, which is also a multi-swing low support level.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance level for NZD/USD is at 0.6283, which is a pullback resistance level. There is also an intermediate resistance level at 0.6236, which is a pullback resistance level and is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

If the bullish momentum continues, NZD/USD could potentially break through the 1st resistance level and rise towards the intermediate resistance level. However, if the bearish momentum takes over, NZD/USD could potentially drop towards the 2nd support level.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart is showing bearish momentum, with price potentially rising towards the 1st resistance level in the short term before reversing off it and dropping towards the 1st support level.

Looking at the chart, the overall momentum is bearish, with two strong support levels below the current price. The first support is at 1.3270, which is a multi-swing low support. The second support is at 1.3224, which is a swing low support. These two support levels suggest that there is strong bearish momentum on the chart.

On the other hand, there are two strong resistance levels above the current price. The first resistance is at 1.3420, which is an overlap resistance and has a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement lining up with it. The second resistance is at 1.3520, which is also an overlap resistance and has a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement lining up with it. These two resistance levels suggest that price may rise towards them in the short term before reversing off.

There is also an intermediate support level at 1.3313, which is a swing low support. This support level is important as it suggests that if price were to break below the first support level, it could potentially drop to this intermediate support before reaching the second support level.

DJ30:

The DJ30 index is currently exhibiting a bearish overall momentum. The price could potentially break below the 1st support at 33840.50, suggesting a drop towards the 2nd support at 33587.40. The 1st support level is an overlap support, which gives us confidence that it will hold. The 2nd support is a swing low support and is backed up by a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, making it an even stronger level of support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is at 34370.08, which is a multi-swing high resistance. This level could potentially act as a strong barrier for any bullish movement. The 2nd resistance is at 34659.00, which is a swing high resistance. It is always a strong level of resistance that the price has failed to breach in the past.

In between the 1st resistance and 1st support, we have an intermediate resistance level at 34135.00, which is a swing high resistance. It could provide some minor resistance on the way down.

The RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon. This supports our bearish outlook on the DJ30 index.

GER30:

The GER30 chart suggests a bearish momentum, with the rising wedge pattern signaling an imminent breakout to the downside. Prices could potentially make a bearish reaction off the first resistance and drop to the first support.

The first support level at 15655.92 is a strong overlap support, with a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement lining up with it. A break below this level could potentially push prices towards the second support at 15487.81, which is also an overlap support level.

On the other hand, the first resistance at 15932.10 is a swing high resistance, with a 78.60% Fibonacci projection lining up with it. If prices manage to break above this level, it could trigger a bullish acceleration towards the second resistance at 16045.65, which is another swing high resistance level with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension lining up with it.

BTC/USD:

he overall momentum of the BTC/USD chart is bullish, and price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level. The 1st support level is at 29299.00, which is an overlap support and coincides with a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. The 2nd support level is at 28686.00, which is another overlap support and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement. On the other hand, the 1st resistance level is at 31015.00, which is a swing high resistance. In between the current price and the 1st resistance level, there is an intermediate resistance level at 30580.00, which is also an overlap resistance

US500

The US500 chart indicates a bearish momentum, with price potentially heading towards the first support level at 4133.92. The overall bias is bearish, with factors such as a bearish continuation and a major ascending trend line adding to the current downward trend.

Price is currently above a major ascending trend line, which suggests further bullish momentum is on the cards. Additionally, the price is on an ascending trend line that acts as support, but a break below this trend line could trigger a drop towards the first support level.

The first support level is located at 4133.92, which is an overlap support and could provide some buying interest. However, if the price were to break below this support level, the next support level could be seen at 4059.58, which is also an overlap support.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is located at 4173.65, which is a swing high resistance. If the price were to break above this resistance level, it could potentially rise towards the second resistance level at 4195.92, which is also a swing high resistance.

It’s worth noting that RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus price, which suggests that a reversal might occur soon.

ETH/USD:

The Ethereum/USD pair is showing a neutral momentum overall. The price could potentially fluctuate between the first resistance and first support levels. The first support level is located at 2015.74 and is a pullback support, while the second support level is located at 1918.22 and is also a pullback support. On the other hand, the first resistance level is located at 2138.66 and is a multi-swing high resistance, while the intermediate support level is located at 2057.82 and is a multi-swing low support.

WTI/USD:

WTI crude oil has been displaying bearish momentum in recent times, with prices continuing to move lower. As of the latest analysis, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, with the price potentially making a bearish continuation towards the first support level.

The first support level is at 79.78, which is an overlap support and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price breaks below this level, it could drop towards the second support at 77.02, which is a pullback support and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is at 81.58, which is an overlap resistance level. If the price manages to break above this level, it could rise towards the second resistance level at 84.43, which is a swing high resistance level.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Gold prices have been showing bearish momentum recently, with prices potentially continuing downwards towards the 1st support level of 1982.58. This support level is an overlap support and is also at the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which adds to its significance. If prices break below this level, the next potential support level is at 1951.92, which is a multi-swing low support and is at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the upside, the first resistance level is at 2010.12, which is an overlap resistance and is at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. If prices manage to break above this resistance level, the next potential resistance level is at 2032.86, which is a pullback resistance and is at the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level.

Overall, the momentum of the chart is bearish for XAU/USD. If prices continue to drop, traders should keep an eye on the support levels mentioned above. However, if prices manage to break above the resistance levels, this could suggest a shift in momentum to bullish.