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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9048; (P) 0.9084; (R1) 0.9131; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment, and further decline is expected with 0.9118 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 38.2% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.9023 will extend the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection at 0.8767. However, firm break of 0.9118 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9439 resistance holds, and fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is still in progress. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Sustained of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

The US 100 cash index is consolidating after reaching 13,225, the highest level since August 19, 2022, fully recovering from the mid-March banking sector woes. The bulls might not be so upset about the current price action as they may accept that a small correction could set the stage for a new high afterwards, provided that the next low recorded is above the 11,850 area.

There are some key support levels on the way down starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 22, 2021 – October 13, 2022 downtrend at 12,852, and the 12,465-12,497 range set by the September 2, 2020 high and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Even lower, the 12,083-12,276 area appears to be a good area for the bulls to set up their defence.

The stochastic oscillator seems ready to signal a downwards move as it is currently hovering in the overbought territory, battling with its moving average. A potentially aggressive move lower by this indicator would infuse confidence in the bears to stage a proper correction. But they have to ignore the RSI trading above its 50-threshold and the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) remaining on the sidelines at the moment.

Should the bulls manage to remain in control of the market, their first aim would be to retest the August 26, 2022 high at 13,206. Upon successfully clearing this level, the path is clear until the 13,600-13,721 range defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and August 16, 2022 high.

To sum up, the bulls managed to push the index higher amidst a difficult period. The current consolidation could work in their favour provided this delicate balance does not translate into a stronger downward move.

Markets are set to use the incoming US inflation print to predict the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in May, which investors are betting will likely be the last in this cycle.

At the time of writing, Fed funds futures point to a 71% chance of another 25-basis point rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting, reverting to expectations held prior to the recent banking turmoil and SVB’s collapse.

A headline CPI print that’s higher than the forecast 5.1% year-on-year figure should shore up support for the US dollar in the lead up to next May’s rate decision. Fresh evidence of stubbornly high US core inflation may also keep gold prices subdued in sub-$2k territory while limiting the upside for US equities.

However, if US disinflation is shown to be gathering pace as price pressures fall more sharply than expected, that may offer further upside impetus for the precious metal and risk assets, while undermining the dollar’s rebound from the past week.

Ultimately, the CPI print will be used to validate the recent rhetoric by Fed officials who are still focused on restoring price stability, even as such attempts have been made more complicated by a still-tight labour market as well as the unexpected OPEC+ crude oil supply cuts.

EURJPY has been moving without a clear direction since mid-March albeit with very high volatility. In the past few daily sessions, the pair has rebounded after a minor pullback and it is ready to challenge its highest levels observed in 2023.

The momentum indicators are promoting this strong recovery. Specifically, the MACD histogram is strengthening above both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI has flatlined significantly above its 50-neutral mark.

If bullish pressures persist, the 2023 peak of 145.66 might act as the first barrier for buyers to claim. Piercing through that zone, the pair could ascend towards the December 2022 high of 146.73. A violation of that zone could set the stage for the eight-year high of 148.39.

On the flipside, bearish actions could send the price to test 144.85, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 133.39-148.39 upleg. If that barricade fails, the bears could aim for the 38.2% Fibo of 142.66 before the 50.0% Fibo of 140.89 appears on the radar. Even lower, the 61.8% Fibo of 139.12 may curb further declines.

Overall, EURJPY seems to be recovering from the latest pullback that dragged it away from its 2023 highs. Therefore, the pair's advance could accelerate in the case that it breaks above the 145.66 ceiling.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6615; (P) 0.6647; (R1) 0.6675; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Overall, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6792 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6563 support will resume the decline form 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6792 at 0.6426.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3479; (P) 1.3516; (R1) 1.3548; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall is in favor with 1.3563 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.3405 will resume the decline from 1.3860, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976, to 1.3224/61 support zone. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3563 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3860 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9861; (P) 0.9875; (R1) 0.9891; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for the moment. With 0.9837 support intact, rise from 0.9704 is still in favor to resume later. Break of 0.9995 will target a retest on 1.0067 high. However, firm break of 0.9837 will indicate that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9704 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.1002) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.22; (P) 144.69; (R1) 145.57; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 145.66 will resume recent rebound from 137.37. Further rally should then be seen to retest 148.38 high. On the downside, break of 142.53 will target 138.83 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.33; (P) 164.91; (R1) 166.02; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 166.38 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 166.38, and sustained trading above 165.99 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.75 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8759; (P) 0.8776; (R1) 0.8787; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8864 will target 0.8924 resistance first. Firm break there should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.