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Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw their first red month since April 2025 in what proved to be a highly volatile trading period.

Up and down swings were a common theme as sentiment soured pre-US Government reopening before seeing a tentative improvement.

A late-month stark rebound managed to erase most of the monthly losses, but it seems that risk-appetite is catching a cold to begin the new month.

A key warning regarding last week's rebound lies in the aggressive repricing of the Federal Reserve's path: the probability of a 25 bps cut at the December 10th FOMC meeting surged from roughly 20% to almost 90% in just a few days.

Rate Cut Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting, December 1, 2025 – Source: CMEGroup

Now, while the cut is the dominant expectation, it is not a 100% certainty. The upcoming Core PCE release—the first significant inflation data since October 24th—holds the potential to disrupt this pricing.

The upside for a better pricing is limited given the cut is already at 90%, but the downside risk is significant if the data comes in hot and the cut gets priced out.

US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Lower gap but rebound. December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Volumes were also notably low last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, suggesting that many traders were waiting for liquidity to return before committing to positions, creating the conditions for a volatile market open.

In that aspect, risk assets have turned sour to start the week, with Cryptos and Tech once again leading the downside.

Indices gapped down at the open but have since pulled back higher, filling the gaps. Let's take a close look at all the major US Indices—Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500—and intraday charts & levels for all of them.

Stock Market Heatmap for the current session

US Equity Heatmap (11:15 A.M.) – December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Industrial Index was the most optimistic about the dovish repricing last week, almost catching up to the 48,000 level.

It notably was the only index which finished higher last month, even if it was by a very thin margin.

Nevertheless, buyers are losing quite some steam in the Dow as mid-session flows turn back to tech, with the current candle forming a symmetrical doji – A sign of indecision. The lack of decision takes further emphasis with the RSI retracting from elevated levels back towards neutral.

The 4H picture still remains above the key 50 and 200 period Moving Averages and the 47,000 handle which is the mark to keep your eyes on to estimate appetite for risk.

For immediate momentum cues, look at the current candle highs (47,685) and lows (47,340). Watch for any break above and below for breakout trades.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 48,459
• Next Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650
• Psychological resistance at 48,000

Support Levels

• Higher timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,200
• 46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate Support
• Tuesday Lows 45,925
• 45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is proving its resilience despite the outflows in tech, held by a rebound in Nvidia and a stellar past week. Dip-buyers have stepped in aggressively after the gap-down.

The mid-term picture is now much less bearish than it was in mid-November, but bulls still have work to do to retake the crown.

With the price action stuck between the Pivot and Resistance, traders can look at three scenarios:

• A consolidation between 25,000 (Pivot) to 25,500 (Resistance) until Friday's PCE release
• A break above 25,500 pointing to a re-integration of the longer-term uptrend (broken in November)
• A break below the 25,000 Pivot Zone, indicating further rejection of the yearly highs.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 immediate test, MA 200 and Thursday highs
• Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)
• Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
• Mini-resistance at 25,500 Gap

Support Levels

• 24,550 Tuesday lows
• 24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)
• October lows 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Technical Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart, December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 offers a very similar picture as the one in the Nasdaq, as it now holds above its Momentum pivot (6,800 +/- 15 points) but has failed to break above its short-term resistance.

Keep an eye on the daily highs (6,854) and spot if bulls actually manage to break higher.

Failing to do so will prove a lack of decision and momentum this week.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
• 6,800 Psychological resistance (+/- 10 points)
• Mid-term resistance 6,860 to 6,880
• ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930

Support Levels

• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,570 to 6,600 support
• 4 H MA 50 at 6,750
• 6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)
• 6,400 psychological support

Safe Trades!

Gold continues to trend higher and hit the highest in six weeks on Monday, supported by growing expectations for Fed rate cut in December.

Weak US economic data and recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers fueled fresh rise in bets for further policy easing, while market participants also expect successor of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to hold more dovish stance.

Such environment contributed to further weakening of US Dollar that boosts demand for yellow metal.

Fresh gains broke through previous high ($4245, close above which to confirm bullish signal) and cracked Fibo barrier at $4264 (76.4% retracement of $4381/$3886 correction), where bulls may face stronger resistance as stochastic is overbought and positive momentum faded on daily chart.

However, consolidation is likely to be narrow (overall picture is bullish and sentiment is positive) with $4200 zone (psychological / broken Fibo 61.8%) marking solid support which should keep the downside protected.

Firm break of $4264 Fibo barrier to strengthen near-term structure for test of $4300, the last significant obstacle en-route to $4381, new record high.

Res: 4264; 4300; 4339; 4368.
Sup: 4200; 4173; 4134; 4100.

The dollar index came under increased pressure on Monday and fell to two-week low, following renewed rise in bets for Fed rate cut in the last policy meeting this year, as markets await releases of key economic indicators from the US labor sector, which could contribute to such decision.

The report released today showed that US manufacturing sector remains in a downward trajectory for the ninth consecutive month, with higher prices on tariffs and significant drop in orders, being mainly behind the slump that added pressure on greenback.

Daily studies weakened as 14-momentum indicator stays in the negative territory and price dips further below broken 200 /20/10DMAs and approaching pivotal support at $98.85 (Nov 14 higher low), where stronger headwinds could be expected, as stochastic is oversold.

Limited upticks should hold below 200DMA (99.43) to keep near-term bias with bears and offer better levels to enter fresh shorts.

Bull-trap at $100 level and initial signal of formation of reversal pattern on monthly chart contribute to negative scenario, although firm break of $98.85/60 zone (Nov 14 low / 55DMA / Fibo 38.2% of $95.82/$100.31) is still required to signal reversal on daily chart and open way for further retracement of $95.85/$100.31 rally.

Res: 99.25; 99.43; 99.70; 100.00
Sup: 98.85; 98.60; 98.34; 98.07

• ECB rates are in the right place while German inflation is accelerating.
• The Bank of Japan may raise rates in December & capital flight will pressure the pound.

Attempts by the US dollar to counterattack are being thwarted. The euro is rising due to accelerating German inflation, the pound is rising following the debt market’s approval of Rachel Reeves’ draft budget, and the yen is growing in anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Donald Trump’s comments on the selection of a new Fed chair, as well as expectations for speeches by Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman, are weighing on the dollar.

Christine Lagarde said that the ECB’s interest rates are at the right level. With inflation under control, the European Central Bank is well-positioned. Indeed, there are risks of both acceleration and deceleration in consumer prices. The former includes Germany’s fiscal stimulus and rising expectations of higher industrial and service prices. The latter include the strong euro, lower energy prices and imports from China.

The acceleration of inflation in Germany to 2.6% in November is reinforcing the ECB’s caution. The central bank has most likely ended its cycle of rate cuts. There are scenarios in which the deposit rate will rise. The federal funds rate, on the other hand, risks falling significantly. The divergence in monetary policy creates an excellent opportunity for the EURUSD to resume its upward trend. However, to start with, the bulls need to hold on to 1.16.

Meanwhile, the yen strengthened thanks to Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish speech. He stated that the Bank of Japan would weigh all the pros and cons of raising the overnight rate. At the same time, any increase should be seen as an adjustment to the ultra-soft monetary policy. On these words, the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 76%, allowing bears to develop a decline in USDJPY.

The pound is trying to stabilise after the presentation of the draft budget. According to Eurizon SLJ Capital, the pound will fall against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc amid capital flight by the wealthy following tax increases.

The ISM Manufacturing Index ticked down slightly to 48.2 in November, only slightly lower than October's reading of 48.7.

Four industries reported growth last month, down from six in October. The share of manufacturing GDP reporting growth was unchanged at 58%.

Demand conditions declined overall, but not uniformly. Improvements in new export orders and inventories were dwarfed by the declines in the backlog of orders and new orders indexes.

The production index has once again moved into expansion territory, reaching 51.4, quite a bit above October's 48.2. It has been volatile in recent months. It was last in positive territory in September's survey, which registered at 51.0.

The pace of price gains was little changed in November, coming in at 58.5 vs. 58.0 in October. And the employment index remains in contractionary territory, declining 2.0 points to 44.0 this month.

Key Implications

The November survey came in broadly like last month's, meaning that the underlying state of the manufacturing sector is largely unchanged. The sector is seeing price pressures which are gradually lessening but remain a sticking point, employment is contracting, and demand is tepid.

As in recent months, survey respondents continue to report substantial struggles with tariffs. Price volatility, constraints on supplier availability, and the government shutdown have weighed on the industry. Some respondents cited the lack of official data as an impediment to planning. Respondents in several industries are expecting to see larger changes to revenue and head count in 2026. The bottom line is that the manufacturing sector is still contracting due to weak demand, while policy uncertainty has added to its challenges.

Markets

Bank of Japan governor Ueda finally embraced a next rate hike by the Bank of Japan, very likely when the central bank meets next on December 19. A 25 bps increase lifts the policy rate from the 0.5% in place since January to 0.75%. The market implied probability of such move increase from around 35% a week ago to currently 80%. Ueda highlighted that uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy and the US economy have significantly declined compared to a few months ago. Additionally, the yen’s recent weakness could accelerate inflation in Japan, potentially impacting corporations’ wage-and price-setting behavior and underlying inflation. Ueda compared raising rates at an appropriate level with taking the foot off the accelerator enough to achieve price growth and price stability rather than putting the breaks. He also warned that delaying the next rate hike for too long could cause sharp inflation and force the BoJ into (unwanted) rapid policy adjustments. Japanese markets reacted accordingly. JGB’s sold off with yields rising by 4.2 bps to 6.1 bps, the belly of the curve underperforming the wings. The Japanese 2-yr yield breached the 1% mark for the first time since 2008. The 10-yr yield (1.88%) also hit the highest level since that year with the 30-yr yield testing the 3.4% all-time high. The Japanese yen rises from the ashes after dismal performances in October and November. USD/JPY falls from 156.25 to 154.75. EUR/JPY falls from 181.10 to 108.25. Less bullish risk sentiment (-0.5% to -1% in Europe; -0.5% open in the US) and renewed weakness in crypto space (Bitcoin -6%) support the yen from the safe haven perspective.

The JGB sell-off spilled to core bonds markets in absence of relevant eco data. European and UK yield curves bear steepen. UK yields add 2 bps (2-yr) to 7 bps (30-yr) ending the very short relief rally after last week’s Budget presentation. German yields rise by 2.7 bps (2-yr) to 6 bps (30-yr) with EUR swap rates adding 2 to 5 bps in the similar steepening move. The EU 10y swap rate hits the highest level since July of last year (2.8%). The 30-y swap rate goes above 3.12% for the first time since November 2023. US Treausuries initially outperformed, but joined the sell-off as the US trading session got going. A new spike in the SOFR rate (4.12% on Friday from 4.05% on Wednesday; reported with one day delay) above the upper bound of the Fed funds target range added to general nervousness. End-of-month settings and lower liquidity in the Thanksgiving weekend are probably part of the explanation but the amount of liquidity banks pulled on the NY Fed’s standing repo facility already increased further today after the first of two daily operations. US T’s went from outperforming to underperforming, lifting US yields by 3.9 bps (2-yr) to 7.4 bps (30-yr) at the time of writing. The US dollar slightly underperformed today, but it’s hard to connect the dots. The move slowed as US yields started catching up. EUR/USD changes hands at 1.1630 from a start near 1.16.

News & Views

Polish Q3 GDP growth was slightly upwardly revised to 0.8% Q/Q and 3.8% Y/Y. Details showed consumption expenditure rising by 1% Q/Q (4.4% Y/Y). Household consumption eased slightly at -0.1% Q/Q after strong growth in the previous quarter (+1.5%). Government consumption rose 1.8% Q/Q and gross fixed capital formation added 3.5%. Exports increased (2.7%) slightly more than imports (2.4%). From a supply side point of view, industry added 1.6% Q/Q and 4.9% Y/Y. Added value in construction rose 0.6% Q/Q, transportation and storage 1.1% and accommodation and catering 0.8%. Despite decent economic growth since Q4 of last year, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to ease its policy rate further by 25 bps to 4% on Wednesday as November inflation eased back below the 2.5% NBP inflation target (2.4%). The zloty holds near the strong side of the 4.22/4.31 trading range.

Material shortages in the German manufacturing sector are worsening, according to the German IFO institute. German manufacturing is struggling with more and more bottlenecks in the supply of intermediate products. 11.2% of the companies surveyed reported difficulties in obtaining the materials they need for production (from 5.5% in October). Head of IFO Klaus Wohlrabe said that “the shortage of semiconductors is exacerbating the already difficult situation in the industry”. The shortage has become particularly acute in the automotive industry as more than one in four companies (27.6%) reported (from less than 1% in October). Manufacturers of electronic and optical products are also experiencing increasing problems (from 10.4 to 17.5%.). Idem for manufacturers of electrical equipment (16% reporting shortage up from 10%). In mechanical engineering, the figure rose to 8.2%.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November from 48.7, missing expectations for 49.0 and marking the ninth straight month of contraction.

New orders dropped sharply to 47.4 from 49.4. Employment deteriorated further from 46.0 to 44.0. Production was one of the few bright spots, rising from 48.2 to 51.4 and suggesting that output is holding steady even as new business slows. Input prices edged up from 58.0 to 58.5.

Based on the historical relationship between PMI Manufacturing and broader activity, November’s reading corresponds to an estimated 1.7% annualized increase in real GDP.

Full US ISM manufacturing release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1568; (P) 1.1587; (R1) 1.1619; More…

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1490 extends higher today and focus is now on 1.1655 resistance. Decisive break there will complete a head and should bottom pattern (ls: 1.1540, h: 1.1467, rs: 1.1490). That would argue that whole fall from 1.1917 has completed as a correction. Further rise should then be seen to 1.1727 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 1.1554 will turn bias to the downside for 1.1490 support first.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1345) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3204; (P) 1.3229; (R1) 1.3258; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside with breach of 1.3267 temporary top. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.3265) should confirm that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a correction. Further rise should then be seen to 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.3199 minor support will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.