Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9282; (P) 0.9314; (R1) 0.9373; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside. break of 0.9214 will resume the fall and target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. However, break of 0.9378 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9545 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9545 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.97; (P) 137.07; (R1) 138.90; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 138.16 will resume the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 140.15). On the downside, however, firm break of 133.61 support and 133.07 medium term fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 151.93.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.85) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6663; (P) 0.6700; (R1) 0.6723; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside. Fall from 0.6892 short term top is in progress to 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616. Sustained break there will suggest rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.6892 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, it's still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6909) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3642; (P) 1.3673; (R1) 1.3729; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rise form 1.3224 would target 1.3807 resistance. Break there will bring retest of 1.3976 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3516 support will suggest that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8689; (P) 0.8730; (R1) 0.8756; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 0.8545 would target 0.8827 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole decline from 0.9267 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, break of 0.8675 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral instead, and retain near term bearishness.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9267 is seen as a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5798; (P) 1.5859; (R1) 1.5895; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with today's retreat. Further rise is expected as long as 1.5441 support holds. Break of 1.5916 will resume the larger rise from 1.4281 to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5704 from 1.5271 at 1.6150.

In the bigger picture, strong support from 55 day and 55 week EMA affirms underlying bullishness. As long as 1.5271 support holds, rise from 1.4281 medium term bottom is expected to continue to 1.6434 key resistance next. Decisive break there should confirm medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9862; (P) 0.9885; (R1) 0.9913; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 0.9953 is extending. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds, price actions from 0.9407 medium term bottom will be treated as a corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend would resume through this low at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0072 will also have 55 week EMA (now at 1.0053) taken out. That would be an initial sign of long term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.07; (P) 145.34; (R1) 146.05; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 146.71 will resume the rise from 140.75 to retest 148.38 high. However, on the downside, break of 143.48 will suggest that corrective pattern from 148.38 is still extending. Bias will be back on the downside or 140.75 support, and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.54) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completing the correction from 148.38.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.44; (P) 166.72; (R1) 167.44; More...

GBP/JPY falls slightly today but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 164.02 support will resume the whole fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support. Next target is 100% projection of 172.11 to 163.02 from 169.26 at 160.17. On the upside, break of 169.26 will target a retest on 172.11 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 161.26) will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

Yen rises broadly in Asian session on rumors that the Japanese government is considering to revive the joint statement with BoJ, which would loosen up the languages on the 2% inflation target, and set the stage for a policy change next year. Yet, any changes is likely only after a change in BoJ governor in April. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno also denied the news. Anyways, Yen is currently the stronger one followed by Aussie and Sterling. Kiwi is the weaker one followed by Dollar and Euro. Overall markets mixed.

Technically, a focus of the week is whether Dollar could extend last week's rebound and solidify a sustainable rally, especially against commodity currencies. Break of 0.6301 support in NZD/USD should confirm short term topping at 0.6512, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5511 to 0.6512 at 0.6103.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.11%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.73%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.62%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.55%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0046 at 0.261.

NZ BNZ performance of services dropped to 53.7

New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index declined from 57.1 to 53.7 in November, still above long-term average of 53.6. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped from 61.0 to 58.1. Employment tumbled from 57.1 to 51.8. New orders/business declined from 59.6 to 57.3. Stocks/inventories fell from 56.1 to 55.0. Supplier deliveries fell from 52.0 to 47.3.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said: "With its sister survey the PMI again showing contraction in November and economic headwinds approaching, the easing of expansion in activity is not unexpected. Also, with the Global PSI result of 48.1 at a 29-month low, it will be a tall order for the New Zealand services sector to continue the overall trends experienced during the second half of 2022".

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that "November's PSI proved, for the third month running, to be an important counterpoint to the weakening PMI. It looks as though the services industries – just like they did in Q3 – will more than make up for any weakness in manufacturing in Q4, such that GDP for that quarter manages an expansion".

BoJ to stand pat, some more data before holidays

BoJ is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged this week. There were talks of a view in the policy framework some time next year, which would path the way for a policy change. The markets will listen carefully to Governor Haruhiko Kuroda for any hints on that. BoJ will also publish the minutes of last meeting. RBA minutes will also be featured.

On the data front, Germany Ifo business climate, Canada retails sales, CPI and GDP, Japan CPI, US consumer confidence, durable goods orders and PCE inflation are the highlights.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Germany Ifo business climate; Canada IPPI and RMPI; US NAHB housing index.
• Tuesday: New Zealand ANZ business confidence; RBA minutes; BoJ rate decision; Swiss trade balance; Germany PPI; Eurozone current account; Canada retail sales; US building permits and housing starts.
• Wednesday: New Zealand trade balance; Germany Gfk consumer sentiment; UK public sector net borrowing; Canada CPI; US current account, consumer confidence, existing home sales.
• Thursday: UK current account, Q3 GDP final; US jobless claims, Q3 GDP final.
• Friday: Japan CPI, BoJ minutes; Canada GDP; US durable goods orders, personal income and spending, new home sales.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.44; (P) 166.72; (R1) 167.44; More...

GBP/JPY falls slightly today but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 164.02 support will resume the whole fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support. Next target is 100% projection of 172.11 to 163.02 from 169.26 at 160.17. On the upside, break of 169.26 will target a retest on 172.11 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 161.26) will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

Economic Indicators Update