Sample Category Title
China PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.0, non-manufacturing down to 46.7
China NBS PMI Manufacturing dropped from 49.2 to 48.0 in November, below expectation of 49.2. PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped from 48.7 to 46.7, below expectation of 48.0. Both readings were the lowest in seven months.
"In November, impacted by multiple factors including the wide and frequent spread of domestic outbreaks, and the international environment becoming more complex and severe, China's purchasing managers' index fell," NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement.
Zhao said domestic outbreaks in November caused "production activity to slow down and product orders to fall", noting "increased fluctuation in market expectations".
Australia monthly CPI slowed to 6.9% yoy in Oct, food inflation eased
Australia monthly CPI slowed from 7.3% yoy to 6.9% yoy in October. The most significant contributors to the annual rise were new dwellings (+20.4%), automotive fuel (+11.8%) and fruit and vegetables (+9.4%).
"High levels of building construction activity and ongoing shortages of labour and materials contributed to the rise in new dwellings" Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics said.
Automotive fuel prices accelerated from 10.1% to 11.8% as the government's temporary cut to the fuel excise ended on September 29. Annually, prices for fruit and vegetables rose by 9.4%, down from 17.4% in September.
NZ ANZ business confidence dropped to -57.1, strain showing for businesses
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped from -42.7 to -57.1 in November. Looking at some details, own activity outlook dropped from -2.5 to -13.7, just 8 pts shy of 2009 lows. Export intentions dropped from -4.3 to -5.4. Investment intentions dropped from 1.1 to -8.1. Employment intentions dropped from 5.0 to -4.0. Pricing intentions dropped from 64.5 to 58.5. Cost expectations ticked up from 88.6 to 88.7. Inflation expectations rose from 6.13 to 6.39.
ANZ said, "The strain is showing for kiwi businesses. Cost increases remain relentless and margins are squeezed, firms are chronically understaffed, and they're waiting for the hammer to fall as the impact of relentless monetary policy tightening eventually kicks in. There are a lot of dark clouds on the horizon, and this month's survey reflects that."
Japan industrial production dropped -2.6% mom in Oct, but bounce back expected
Japan industrial production dropped -2.6% mom in October, worse than expectation of -1.8% mom.
The seasonally adjusted production index for the manufacturing and mining sectors stood at 95.9 against 100 for the base year of 2015. The shipment index stood at 94.1, down -1.1%, and the inventory index at 103.0, down -0.8%.
The Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry expects production to rise 3.3% in November and then 2.4% in December.
METI cut its assessment of industrial output for the first time in five months, saying "production is gradually picking up, but some weaknesses are observed."
USD/CAD Restarts Increase, US GDP and ADP Report Next
Key Highlights
- USD/CAD started a fresh increase from the 1.3200 support zone.
- It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3375 on the 4-hours chart.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD corrected gains ahead of the US GDP report release.
- The US GDP could grow 2.6% in Q3 2022 (Preliminary).
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
The US Dollar found support near the 1.3220 level against the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD remained well bid and started a fresh increase above the 1.3300 resistance.
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to clear the 1.3350 resistance zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3375.
The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3808 swing high to 1.3227 low. Finally, there was a minor move above the 1.3520 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).
On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3585 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3808 swing high to 1.3227 low.
The next major resistance may perhaps be near 1.3670. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.3800 resistance zone.
An initial support is near the 1.3480 level. The next major support is near the 1.3400 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). Any more losses might send the pair towards the 1.3250 support zone.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair struggled to gain pace above the 1.0480 resistance and started a short-term downside correction.
Economic Releases
- Euro Zone CPI for Nov 2022 (YoY, Preliminary) - Forecast +10.4%, versus +10.6% previous.
- Euro Zone CPI for Nov 2022 (MoM, Preliminary) - Forecast +1.5%, versus +1.5% previous.
- US ADP Employment Change April 2022 - Forecast 200K, versus 239K previous.
- US Gross Domestic Product for Q3 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 2.6% versus previous 2.6%.
Elliott Wave View: Larger Degree Rally in GBPAUD
Short term Elliott Wave View in GBPAUD suggests the rally from 9.26.2022 low is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 9.26.2022 low, wave ((A)) ended at 1.8199 and pullback in wave ((B)) ended at 1.7456. Pair resumes higher again in wave ((C)) which subdivides into 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree.
Up from wave ((B)) low on 11.14.2022, wave ((i)) ended at 1.7571 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.746. Pair then resumes higher again in wave ((iii)) towards 1.8, and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 1.787. Final leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 1.8068 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure to correct cycle from 11.14.2022 low before the rally resumes. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 1.7794 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 1.7941. Expect wave ((c)) lower to complete at 1.749 – 1.766 area which is the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). As far as pivot at 1.745 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
GBPAUD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart
Trade Idea: Technical Breakdown of Top Cryptos
BTCUSD
Let's start off with a look at the Daily timeframe on Bitcoin. We currently see price reacting to the rally-base-rally demand zone between the 15,600 - 14,300 price area. Price also seems to have found support off the trendline support as marked in the image above. Interestingly, this means the overall bias on BTCUSD is Bullish. However, we will take a closer look at the lower timeframes to determine whether or not price has begun yielding in that direction.
H4 Timeframe
The 4-Hour timeframe poses an interesting scenario - a wedge inside the daily timeframe's channel. As a result, we will be expecting a breakout and retest to confirm the bullish bias with a price target between $18,500 and $20,000.
ETHUSD
The trendline support on the Daily timeframe as seen above spans all the way from February 2020 and has just recently been tested for a third time. There is also a wide drop-base-rally demand zone within the area (the purple zone). The blue arrow represents primary bias whilst the purple arrows are secondary targets. Let's dive a bit deeper into the lower timeframe.
The 4-Hour Timeframe
The 4-Hour timeframe shows price reacting to a resistance trendline. This means that despite the overall trend being bullish, price may tend to slip lower into the marked demand zone before actually executing the bullish move.
CONCLUSION
The views above are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
NZDCAD Wave Analysis
- NZDCAD broke key resistance level 0.8340
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8475
NZDCAD today broke up sharply above the key resistance level 0.8340 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May).
The breakout of the resistance level 0.8340 accelerated the short-term impulse wave 5 of the sharp intermediate impulse sequence (C) from the start of November.
Given the clear daily downtrend and strongly bearish CAD sentiment, NZDCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8475.
US consumer confidence dropped to 100.2, most likely prompted by recent rise in gas prices
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, slightly above 100.0. Present Situation Index dropped from 138.7 to 137.4. Expectations index dropped from 77.9 to 75.4.
"Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers' expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated."
"Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023."
