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EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro ended with a slight decline against the dollar, and in the early hours of today, the pair scored some gains. After a failed attempt to breach 1.0396 at the end of last week, it is possible that the bulls could try to attack the zone at 1.0460 – 1.0490. It seems that the bulls are feeling hesitant, and for the moment, they are more likely to defend their positions than to be on the offence. The market most likely expects a catalyst, and until then, trading may continue in the range between the 1.0396 support and the 1.0535 resistance. Sentiment remains negative, and a change would occur only if prices breach and hold above 1.0600. If the annual support at 1.0360 is also breached, then more serious declines targeting 1.0200, or even parity with the dollar, can be expected. Today, a series of data on business activity in the services sector for the eurozone countries would possibly boost market activity.

GBP/USD

Despite the low activity yesterday, the pair ended in green territory and the trend carried over into the early hours of today. The bulls are once again about to attack the highs at around 136.70, with the first obstacle for them being the resistance at 136.30. A breach of the zone at 136.70 would unlock the possibility of a rally targeting 138.50. In an alternative scenario and another failure of the bulls at breaching this resistance, it is very likely that the market will continue to trade in a range with a lower boundary of 134.77 and an upper one of 136.70.

USD/JPY

The Cable could not hold onto its gains and yesterday's session ended largely unchanged. The key area at 1.2170 was breached and is currently the first confirmed resistance. If prices fail to return above 1.2170, then another wave of sell-offs can be expected, with a breach of 1.1988 also not being excluded. First daily support is the level of 1.2100, but the zone is likely to prove unreliable. If the decline towards 1.1980 is interpreted as a test, then a more serious and prolonged bearish pressure can be expected. Sentiment remains negative and a change would occur only if prices remain above 1.2170.

EUGERMANY40

The German index started the week lower, but managed to stay above the 12740 support. In the early hours of today, the bulls attempted an attack on the 12940 resistance, but the target was not reached. Other attempts throughout the day are possible and a successful breach would bring prices back above the psychological border of 13000. The next resistance is 13170, and the key one is at 13370, which is unlikely to be reached at the moment. The trend remains bearish and the rallies are expected to be sold off. Since the middle of last month, the index has been trading in a descending channel, suggesting deep and sharp corrections, but the bears are still expected to maintain their dominance.

US30

Yesterday, due to the national holiday in the U.S., the markets lacked activity. Today, the blue chips are on the rise and prices are holding confidently above the 30930 support. Early this morning the bulls managed to break through the resistance at 31140 and may test the next zone at 31345. Negative market expectations have been building up in recent weeks and the prevailing consensus is for the declines to continue. Purely from a technical standpoint, there is some chance of a short squeeze occurring through a rally aimed at 32000, but such growth, even if materialised, would not be sustainable. For today, the main support for the bulls is 30930, and the first resistance is 31345.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.24; (P) 163.99; (R1) 164.97; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is mildly on the upside with break of 164.63 minor resistance. Further rise could be seen to retest 168.67 high. On the downside, below 161.56 will target 159.97 support. Firm break there will raise the chance of rejection by 167.93 long term fibonacci resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to 155.57 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.82; (P) 141.24; (R1) 141.86; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, break of 139.78 will target 137.83 support first. Sustained break there will raise the chance of rejection by 144.06 long term projection level and target 132.63 support. On the upside, above 142.42 minor resistance will bring retest of 144.26 high instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8596; (P) 0.8612; (R1) 0.8628; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 0.8484 support holds, further rise is in favor. Break of 0.8720 and sustained trading above 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 0.9003 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8484 will indicate rejection by 0.8697 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom could could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697 will affirm the latter case, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. However, rejection by 0.8697 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5115; (P) 1.5235; (R1) 1.5300; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and further rise is expected with 1.5059 support intact. Sustained trading above 1.5343 resistance should indicate medium term bottoming at 1.4318. Stronger rally would be seen back to 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5277 from 1.4759 at 1.5718. However, firm break of 1.5059 support will indicate rejection of 1.5354, and revive medium term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.5354 support turned resistance will argue that a medium term bottom was formed at 1.4318 already. It would still be too early to call for long term trend reversal. But further rise would then be seen back towards 1.6434 resistance (2021 high). However, rejection by 1.5354 will retain bearishness for extending the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) through 1.4318 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9982; (P) 1.0014; (R1) 1.0052; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 1.0155 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.9970 will resume larger down trend for 0.9650 long term projection level. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0155 resistance holds, in case of stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0406; (P) 1.0435 (R1) 1.0452; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and further decline is expected as long as 1.0614 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090. On the upside, above 1.0614 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0786 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2070; (P) 1.2118; (R1) 1.2150; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and further decline is mildly in favor with 1.2187 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.1932 will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. However, on the upside, above 1.2187 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2453) instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.31403).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9584; (P) 0.9601; (R1) 0.9630; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Price actions from 1.0063 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. On the upside, break of 0.9731 resistance will argue that such consolidation has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.0063 high. However, another fall below 0.9493 will dampen this view and target 0.9459 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 1.0237/0342 resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, sustained break of 0.9471 will extend long term range trading with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.07; (P) 135.42; (R1) 136.06; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will indicate short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.