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Bitcoin was down 0.7% on Wednesday, ending it near $21.8K, although it was a hair away from $20K in the first half of the day.

Ethereum gained 5% in the past 24 hours, losing 35% in 7 days. Altcoins from the top 10 are growing ahead of the curve, rising between 7% (BNB) and 18.6% (Solana). The top altcoins are behaving better than the flagships (ETH, BTC) this week, as they have fewer institutions and crypto enthusiasts find them relatively stable and still cheap.

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, added 5% overnight to $0.94 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index declined 0.6 points overnight and 2.2 points in 7 days to 44.3%.

By Thursday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained unchanged at 7 points (“extreme fear”).

It isn’t easy to rely on the resulting rebound as it is not due to easing financial conditions. Bitcoin’s recovery to Tuesday’s levels looks like a technical bounce after a quick collapse. Yesterday, financial markets received the fastest monetary policy tightening in almost 30 years, which has hardly added to the appeal of cryptocurrencies for the foreseeable future.

Investors and traders should be prepared that yesterday’s rebound could choke out rather quickly. We need to be ready that cryptocurrencies and risky assets in financial markets are unlikely to reliably bounce back before there are signals that the economy has stopped slowing. The Fed is no longer tightening its rhetoric.

Despite the massive fall in the crypto market, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor continues to express confidence in bitcoin’s growth. He said the company is safe, has enough collateral for its loan, and could survive a BTC’s fall as low as $3562. MicroStrategy has already lost more than $1.2 billion due to the decline in BTC.

According to a Bank of America survey, 90% of Americans plan to buy cryptocurrencies in the next six months.

According to market veteran Peter Brandt, people are willing to buy anything in the hope of an “ace” but end up losing their hard-earned money.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said in the post-meeting pressing conference, "the new inflation forecast shows that further increases in the policy rate may be necessary in the foreseeable future."

"In the current environment, price increases were being passed on more quickly, and are also being more readily accepted, than was the case until recently," he said. "There is the threat of second-round effects becoming entrenched if inflation remains above 2% for a long period."

Jordan also noted that the Franc's strength on safe-haven flow helped dampen the impact on higher fuel and food import prices. But that was less the case following recent decline. "Thus the inflation imported from abroad has increased," he said. "Another consequence of this depreciation coupled with significantly higher inflation abroad is that the franc is no longer highly valued."

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0352; (P) 1.0415; (R1) 1.0449; More....

EUR/CHF's steep decline and strong break of 1.0216 support suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9970 has completed already, after second rejection by 1.0505 support turned resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0086 support first. Break will target a test on 0.9970 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0512 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.05; (P) 162.61; (R1) 163.48; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 168.67 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 161.66) will bring deeper decline to 155.57 support. On the upside, above 165.14 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 168.67 again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.07; (P) 140.28; (R1) 141.02; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 144.23 resumes today and intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 137.11). On the upside, above 141.48 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 144.23 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8525; (P) 0.8623; (R1) 0.8680; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8484 support holds. Break of 0.8720 and sustained trading above 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 0.9003 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8484 will indicate rejection by 0.8697 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom could could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697 will affirm the latter case, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. However, rejection by 0.8697 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4799; (P) 1.4995; (R1) 1.5110; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the downside, break of 1.4759 support will suggest that rebound from 1.4318 has completed. Intraday bias will be turn back to the downside for retesting 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5187 will target 1.5277 resistance and than 1.5354 support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2838; (P) 1.2917; (R1) 1.2971; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first. Further rise will remain mildly on favor as long as 1.2516 support holds. Above 1.2995 will target 1.3075 resistance. Firm break there will resume medium term rally and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6901; (P) 0.6963; (R1) 0.7064; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0368; (P) 1.0438 (R1) 1.0517; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside for retesting 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090. On the upside, above 1.0506 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.