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European currencies have moved into a corrective phase following recent gains, while market participants focus on upcoming macroeconomic data from the UK, the eurozone and the United States. After a strong upward move, both currencies returned to their previous trading ranges, signalling a shift towards consolidation ahead of important economic releases. Additional pressure on the euro and pound is coming from partial profit-taking after the earlier weakening of the US dollar.

Investors will assess data on UK GDP, industrial production and business activity across European economies. These figures may influence expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. At the same time, markets continue to monitor US statistics, including retail sales and jobless claims, which could affect expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has entered a corrective decline after recent gains and is once again trading within its previous range. Technical analysis suggests the pair may fall towards the lower boundary of the four-week range near 1.1650–1.1670, as a bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A break below these support levels could trigger a deeper downward correction. If the pair rebounds from 1.1650, a renewed test of 1.1760–1.1780 may follow.

Key Events For EUR/USD:

• today at 10:00 (GMT+3): Spain Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) in Germany
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US retail sales volume

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is also correcting after its previous rally and remains within a range-bound structure. A move below yesterday’s low at 1.3490 could lead to a decline towards the 1.3400–1.3440 area. The bearish correction scenario remains valid while the pair stays below 1.3550.

Key Events For GBP/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK GDP
• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK manufacturing production
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims

Market attention remains focused on UK economic data, including industrial production, construction output and investment activity. At the same time, the pair will continue to be influenced by US statistics and the dollar’s reaction to macroeconomic releases. If US data confirms signs of economic slowing, the dollar may come under renewed pressure, allowing GBP/USD to resume its upward movement. However, stronger US figures could intensify the current correction and keep the pair within its established range.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1688; (P) 1.1714; (R1) 1.1734; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is expected with 1.1642 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1539). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.59; (P) 157.75; (R1) 158.00; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 156.77 minor support will bring retest of 155.01. Firm break there will resume the fall from 160.71 to 152.25 support next. On the upside, however, firm break of 157.92 will indicate that pullback from 160.71 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.13) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3486; (P) 1.3518; (R1) 1.3553; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range trading below 1.3657 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally remains mildly in favor. On the upside, firm break of 1.3657 will resume the rally from 1.3158 to retest 1.3867 high. However, decisive break of 1.3453 will argue that the rebound has already completed, and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.3158 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7798; (P) 0.7814; (R1) 0.7831; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. With 0.7847 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7760 will resume the whole decline form 0.8041, and target 100% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7656. However, firm break of 0.7847 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7923 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7233; (P) 0.7252; (R1) 0.7274; More...

Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.7277 will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3686; (P) 1.3702; (R1) 1.3721; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.3549 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3480. Further rise would be seen towards 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.3646 minor support will bring retest of 1.3549 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

UK economic growth held up better than expected in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP expanding 0.6% qoq in line with forecasts as stronger services activity helped offset softer industrial momentum. The figures suggest the economy entered the second quarter with more resilience than many investors had feared, despite elevated energy costs and rising political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government.

Services remained the main engine of growth. Output in the sector increased 0.8% qoq following a 0.2% rise in the previous quarter and stood 1.4% higher than a year earlier. Production output also expanded by 0.2% qoq after a strong 1.3% gain in Quarter 4 2025, though annual production growth remained flat. Construction activity rose 0.4% qoq but was still -1.3% lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, real GDP per head increased 0.6% qoq during the quarter and was up 0.9% yoy.

Monthly data for March surprised to the upside. UK GDP grew 0.3% mom versus expectations for a -0.1% mom contraction, following February’s 0.4% expansion. Services output rose 0.3% while construction surged 1.5%, offsetting a modest -0.2% decline in production activity.

The stronger-than-expected figures may provide some reassurance to policymakers that the UK economy retains underlying resilience even as higher energy prices, rising gilt yields, and domestic political instability continue clouding the broader outlook.

Full UK Q1 GDP release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.97; (P) 213.33; (R1) 213.79; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 212.35 minor support will bring deeper fall back to 210.43 support. On the upside, firm break of 214.40 will bring stronger rebound to retest 216.58 high.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.75) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.57; (P) 184.86; (R1) 185.10; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. As noted before, pullback from 187.93 could have completed at 182.01 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 184.02 minor support holds. Above 185.44 will target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, break of 184.02 minor support will turn bias back to the downside towards 182.01 again.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.04) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.