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• US stock benchmarks rise but show mixed reactions to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to explode to new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones still struggles.
• Exploring technical levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

After a long and uncertain process, the Senate has confirmed that Kevin Warsh will officially replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve for a four-year term.

Although he has not served on the Federal Reserve board since 2011, the new Fed Chair has stayed close to economics and finance as a partner at Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds.

US stock benchmarks are mostly rising after the news, but the market’s reaction to Warsh’s confirmation is mixed.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to jump to new all-time highs, signalling a welcome change and benefiting from strong momentum in growth stocks.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still struggling, as blue-chip investors try to figure out how a Fed led by Warsh will address persistent inflation and ongoing global challenges.

Daily market performance, May 8, 2026. Source: Finviz.

Overall, the reaction across different asset classes shows that participants are feeling uncertain.

Both the US Dollar and precious metals are still rising, building on their strong weekly gains as investors look to cover bearish positions in the asset class, while cryptocurrencies and US Treasuries continue to struggle.

The market division shows that investors are still unsure about the new Fed Chair’s approach. Traders will have to assess his views at the coming FOMC meeting on June 17.

Explore the different reactions in stock markets by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the stock market, 15:14. Source: TradingView, May 13, 2026.

The stock market heatmap is still heavily fractured. Stock market leaders like Nvidia, Tesla, Eli Lilly and a few semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting, while other names largely struggle and the AI boom continues to bulldoze the Nasdaq to new records.

Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones CFD 1H chart. Source: TradingView, May 13, 2026.

After initial struggles, the Dow Jones is rallying back to the top of its tighter consolidation between 49,500 and 49,800, which provides further strength of support and resistance levels.

For an upside breakout, look for a 1H candle break on high volume above 49,800. The confirmation comes on a close above 50,000.

On the other hand, bears will want to see a break below 49,500 and a longer-run pullback below 49,000.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 49,780 post-Warsh confirmation highs
• 49,900 to 50,000 resistance and early 2026 highs, range highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-time highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 gap fill pivot 49,500, mini range lows and short-term bearish below
• Major pivot: 49,000 to 49,100, mid-term bearish below
• Momentum support 48,500
• Pivotal support at 48,000
• Mini support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq CFD 1H chart. Source: TradingView, May 13, 2026.

Despite the record highs reached in today's session, led by a gigantic rebound after yesterday's rough correction, the immediate highs are not so optimistic.

Indeed, the new record is stalling right above the previous record, a price action that hints at stop chasing rather than a continuous rise. Still, the previous rally hints at decent potential for upside, but to confirm, the index will have to print above 29,600.

On the other hand, if the action falls below the 50-hour MA at 29,160, the action may get dire.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,485 morning highs
• Next level 29,600, short-term bullish above

Support Levels

• 50-hour MA at 29,160, short-term bearish below
• 28,500 short-term pivot
• 28,000 major psychological resistance now pivot and channel highs
• Momentum pivot at 27,000, 4H 50-period MA
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH support 26,200 to 26,300

S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 CFD 1H chart. Source: TradingView, May 13, 2026.

The S&P 500 is continuously following the higher part of its bull channel, helping a consistent bounce to new all-time highs. The index is showing the strongest intraday price action out of the three major US benchmarks.

As long as the action remains above the channel's mid-line at 7,375, expect the rally to persistent records to continue.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,390 to 7,400 channel extension resistance, morning highs
• 7,415 161.% Fib
• Next stop 7,480

Support Levels

• Momentum pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230, bearish below
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level, war lows

Keep track of WTI crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe trades.

The short‑term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei Futures (NKD) shows the cycle from the March 30, 2026 low unfolding as an impulse. This sequence is now approaching completion. From that low, wave ((i)) advanced to 61,000, followed by a corrective decline in wave ((ii)) that ended at 58,651. The Index then resumed higher in wave ((iii)), which subdivided into a smaller impulsive structure.

From the end of wave ((ii)), wave (i) advanced to 60,025, while wave (ii) corrected to 59,150. The Index rallied in wave (iii) toward 63,400, before a dip in wave (iv) concluded at 62,020. The final leg, wave (v), reached 63,850, completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree. A subsequent pullback unfolded in wave ((iv)) as a zigzag. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 62,390, wave (b) advanced to 63,285, and wave (c) declined to 61,805. This completed wave ((iv)) at a higher degree.

Near term, as long as price remains above 58,651, the Index retains scope to extend higher and complete wave ((v)). That move would also finalize the cycle from the March 30 low. Once this sequence concludes, a larger degree pullback should correct the entire cycle. Such a correction will serve as consolidation, balancing prior gains and preparing the structure for the next bullish advance.

Nikkei Futures (NKD_F) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

NKD_F Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3TFAxlMZBM

CADJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CADJPY reversed from support level 114.20
• Likely to rise to resistance level 116.00

CADJPY recently reversed up from the support level 114.20 (which has been reversing the pair from the end of March), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.

The upward reversal from the support level 114.20 continued the active impulse waves 3 and (3).

Given the clear daily uptrend, CADJPY can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 116.00 – former minor resistance from the start of May.

Gold holds in red for the second consecutive day, pressured by stronger dollar on growing uncertainty in the Middle East and sidelined expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, as inflation in the US rose further (both consumer and producer price index rose significantly in April).

Fundamentals, however, show mixed signals as Fed is likely to stay on hold until the end of the year that would add support to dollar, while growing worries of further economic slowdown would partially counter negative impact and keep the metal’s price afloat.

Near-term action moves within $4650/$4770 congestion (also holds within daily cloud) and moving around range’s mid-point ($4700 zone) after repeated upside rejection ($4764/$4773), with the range floor being reinforced by daily cloud base ($4667) and daily Tenkan-sen ($4637).

Technical picture on daily chart is mixed (neutral momentum studies / MAs in mixed setup), although currently forming 55/100DMA may produce stronger pressure.

Look for initial negative signals on violation of near-term range floor that would boost downside potential on formation of double-top ($4764/73) and unmask next key support at $4500 zone.

On the flip side, break above $4773 and 100DMA ($4790) would brighten near-term outlook and open way for attack at daily cloud top ($4848).

Res: 4700; 4773; 4790; 4835
Sup: 4650; 4636; 4546; 4500

Markets

The geopolitical focus turns from the Middle East to China the next two days as US President Trump pays a high-profile visit to Beijing. Expectations going into the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping are rather low. An extension of the current, fragile, stabilization on trade and an agreement to a follow-up meeting seems to be the best outcome. The US hopes to secure more Chinese promises for purchases US goods and maybe also some help with forcing Iran to the negotiation table. By granting a predictable trade framework, the US hopes to avoid that China uses its stronghold on the export of critical minerals. China on its side might seek concessions on Taiwan which is a thorny issue and potential pitfall for the capricious US president.

April US producer prices surged more than expected. Headline PPI accelerated to 1.4% M/M. That monthly pace is the second fastest since the start of the series at the end of 2009. It ranks second to March 2022 (1.7% M/M) with the start of the Russian invasion coming on top op reopening post-Covid economies. On an annual level, producer price inflation increased from an upwardly revised 4.3% to 6% (vs 4.8% consensus). That’s the strongest pace since December 2022. Core PPI markets showed the same dynamic. Producer prices excluding food and energy rose by 1% M/M and 5.2% Y/Y. Also stripping out trade resulted in 0.6% M/M and 4.4% Y/Y. Services costs rose by 1.2% M/M, the most in four years. Broadening price pressures triggered intraday underperformance of US Treasuries. The US 2-yr yield briefly breached the psychologic 4% barrier. The US 10-yr yield was a whisker away of 4.5%, reaching the highest level since July of last year. The US 30-yr yield extends its stay above 5% and keeps the multi-annual highs around 5.15% withing sight. Tonight’s $25bn 30-yr bond sale will be closely monitored after yesterday’s sluggish $10-yr Note sale. Interest rate support and sticky oil prices ($107.5/b) continue to offer some support for the dollar with EUR/USD currently changing hands around 1.17. The EMU eco calendar was thin so far this week, but speeches by ECB President Lagarde and chief economist Lane after European trading have market moving potential. Lane is expected to update the slide deck he’s used on a number of occasions since the start of the war in Iran. It will be especially interesting to see how current pricing relates to the central bank’s base and adverse scenario’s. Lagarde and other ECB members recently suggested that we’re moving further away from base. An adverse scenario calls for a measured adjustment of policy as currently discounted in money markets. The market-implied probability of a June 25 bps rate hike currently stands at 83% with markets discounting a cumulative 75 bps of tightening by end 2026.

News & Views

The Hungarian forint slipped intraday, moving from as high as EUR/HUF 357 to 360. The pair is currently changing hands around 358.7. The currency weakened after the central bank unexpectedly lowered the interest rate on FX swaps by 50 bps to 5.25%. “The purpose of the instrument is to serve as a back-up option on the FX-swap market, thereby ensuring the effective interest rate transmission,” the statement noted. But with market and liquidity conditions having improved, Budapest saw “greater room for market-based developments to prevail”. The current rate is 100 bps lower below the base rate but that should not be seen as a change “in the strict and careful monetary policy stance”. The MNB decision comes after a strong surge Hungarian assets, in the currency but also government bonds. EUR/HUF traded north of 390 in the wake of the Iran war before staging an impressive comeback, supported by the ceasefire and later pro-European Tisza’s election victory mid-April.

OPEC lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 today. It now projects demand to expand by 1.2 mln barrels per day compared to the 1.4 mln it had pencilled in last month. That should rise to approximately 1.5 mln in 2027, an upward revision by 200k from the April forecast. OPEC stuck to its supply growth forecast coming from countries outside the cartel, amounting to 600k barrels a day both in 2026 and 2027. Brazil, Canada, the US and Argentina were the prime drivers. Its views on global economic GDP growth also remained unchanged at 3.1% and 3.2% this year and the next respectively.

• Global oil reserves are falling due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Several buffers have prevented oil prices from soaring.

Oil is in a race against time. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the greater the chances of higher Brent and WTI prices in the longer term. The US Energy Information Administration estimates a reduction in global oil reserves of 2.6 mln bpd, assuming the world’s main artery resumes operations by summer. This figure is significantly higher than the previous forecast of 0.3 mln bpd. The average price of North Sea crude in 2026 is expected to be $95 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency estimates the oil market deficit at 1.78 mln bpd. In April and December, it forecast surpluses of 0.41 mln bpd and 4 mln bpd, respectively. Even if the conflict in the Middle East ends by early June, a serious imbalance will persist until the end of the third quarter.

Given these figures, the price of a barrel of Brent at around $105 seems too low, as it has hovered near this level since the second half of March. Moreover, there is now almost no difference between futures and spot prices, whereas at the start of April, the spread exceeded $30, a record high. What is the reason for this?

The global oil market has managed to utilise several buffers that are currently holding back price rises. Before the conflict in the Middle East, it was in surplus, building stocks and bringing China’s reserves to an impressive 1.4 bn barrels—more than a year’s consumption. The US is exporting nearly 10 mln bpd, compared with 4–6 mln bpd in the previous couple of years. Canada has increased exports by 0.4 mln bpd compared with a year earlier; Venezuela and Norway by 0.2 mln each; and Brazil by 0.1 mln. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also found workarounds.

JP Morgan points to faster growth in petrol and diesel prices compared with crude oil. This reduces consumer demand and decreases refineries’ need for feedstock. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts a slower increase in global demand in 2026—from +0.6 mln bpd in the previous estimate to +0.2 mln bpd. Furthermore, calculations indicate a drop in demand of approximately 5 mln bpd. This is too significant to be considered a sustainable trend, signalling that consumers are simply trying to weather the storm, whereas in 2022, they were rushing to stock up. It is worth noting separately that some of the lost demand may not return to the market at all, reviving interest in alternative energy sources.

Nevertheless, the oil shortage created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is laying the foundations for future price growth. The blockade of the world’s key oil artery is leading to overflowing storage tanks, reduced production, and destroyed capacity. Thus, time is on the side of the Brent bulls.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6169; (P) 1.6231; (R1) 1.6262; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6842 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 1.6125 will resume larger fall from 1.8554. Next target is 1.5913 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6293 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6494).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7039) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1709; (P) 1.1748; (R1) 1.1775; More….

Intraday bias remains neutral as EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading. Further rise is expected with 1.1642 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1539). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7770; (P) 0.7796; (R1) 0.7827; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as range trading continues, and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7847 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7760 will resume the whole decline form 0.8041, and target 100% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7656. However, firm break of 0.7847 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7923 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.