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Canada’s retail sales rose 1.1% mom to CAD 70.7B in January, falling short of expectations for a stronger 1.4% increase. The gain was nevertheless broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting growth, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Core retail sales, which strip out volatile components such as gasoline and autos, rose a solid 0.9% on the month. The increase was driven primarily by general merchandise retailers, where sales jumped 3.0%, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain. This points to underlying strength in discretionary spending.

Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate indicates that retail sales rose another 0.9% mom in February, suggesting steady momentum into Q1.

Full Canada retail sales release here.

Eurozone trade data for January painted a weak start to the year, with both exports and imports contracting sharply. Exports fell -7.6% yoy to EUR 215.2B, while imports dropped -7.3% yoy to EUR 217.2B, leaving a EUR -1.9B deficit. Intra-Eurozone trade also softened, declining -3.3% yoy to EUR 213.1B, pointing to subdued demand both within the bloc and externally.

At the broader EU level, the deterioration was even more pronounced. Exports plunged -10.0% yoy to EUR 189.2B, while imports fell -9.0% yoy to EUR 195.1B, resulting in a EUR -5.9B deficit. The decline in trade flows suggests that the slowdown in global demand is weighing heavily on European exporters, even as weaker imports reflect cooling domestic activity.

A closer look at trading partners highlights the uneven nature of the downturn. Exports to the US dropped sharply by -27.8% yoy, driving a significant narrowing in the surplus with the US to EUR 9.2B from EUR 18.1B a year earlier. Trade with China remained deeply negative, with the deficit widening slightly to EUR -32.5B. By contrast, trade with the United Kingdom and Switzerland proved relatively resilient, though still showing modest declines.

Full Eurozone and EU trade balance release here.

Key takeaways

• Relative policy dynamics driving FX moves: USD/JPY weakness highlights that USD strength is not absolute, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, pushing the US dollar lower.
• Hawkish tilt from BoJ supports yen strength: Despite holding rates, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on wages and inflation signal a potential hike path, reinforcing upside pressure on the yen.
• Technical downside risk building: USD/JPY is at risk of further decline below 157.40–157.50 support (20-day MA), exposing 156.55, while failure to reclaim 159.37 resistance keeps the near-term bearish bias intact.

In the world of foreign exchange, we measured performance on a relative basis in terms of price action structures and macro factors.

A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.

The ex-post 18 March’s FOMC US dollar strength pop due to Fed funds futures market now pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 was evaporated yesterday, reinforced by hawkish guidance from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) despite keeping their respective policy rates unchanged at 2% and 3.75%.

Ex-post FOMC US dollar strength evaporated

Interest swap markets in the Eurozone and the UK have started to price in two 25 basis points (bps) hikes this year, each by the ECB and the BoE, due to their concerns on inflation risks arising from the slowdown driven by stagflation fear driven by the oil supply shock coming out from the Middle East (US-Iran War).

The US Dollar Index shed -1.1% on Thursday, 19 March 2026, erased the prior day's gain of 0.7% (ex-post FOMC), and the USD/JPY fared slightly worse off with a daily loss of 1.3%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy interest rate unchanged 0.75%, and we have warned in our BoJ monetary preview report published earlier on Wednesday, 18 March, that BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference that tends to tilt towards dovish vibes more often based on past conferences, is likely not to trigger a bout of strength in the USD/JPY this time round.

BoJ Ueda’s hawkish press conference

BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted in the post-monetary policy decision press conference that the current spring wage talks have been delivering high chances of another year of wage increases.

He also noted that authorities need to keep monitoring the impact of currency movements on consumer prices, as FX moves now may have more impact on prices than before.

These statements are considered hawkish that suggests BoJ is still on the path of one interest rate hike before 2026 ends.

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.

USD/JPY – At risk of breaking below 20-day moving average

Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 20 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 159.03/159.37 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 157.50/157.40 (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next intermediate support at 156.55 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.

On the flip side, a clearance above 159.37 invalidates the bearish bias for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.23 and 160.74 (also the intervention risk zone where BoJ sold USD against JPY in the past).

Key elements to support the bearish bias on USD/JPY

• The price actions of the USD/JPY have broken down below the minor ascending channel support from the 27 February 2026 low of 155.54.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from the oversold region without any bullish divergence condition, which suggests that the current bounce from Thursday, 19 March 2026, low of 157.51 is a minor corrective rebound within a minor downtrend phase.

Yesterday, the Bank of England’s decision had a significant impact on the pound, which strengthened against other currencies. Although the Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, the market was surprised by the “hawkish” signals, which sharply contrasted with the dovish statements made at the February meeting.

According to media reports:

• → None of the nine committee members voted to cut the rate;
• → The phrase stating that the rate “could be lowered in the future” was removed from the final statement.

Thus, the Bank of England indicated that it is ready to raise rates if the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict accelerates inflation.

The hawkish stance contributed to the pound rising above the upper boundary of the channel in which it had been trading since late January.

Technical Analysis – GBP/USD

Movements in GBP/USD during March suggest that 1.3250 serves as an important support level. Additionally, following yesterday’s news, bulls may find support around 1.3374, where:

• → On 18 March, the market encountered resistance;
• → The upper boundary of the channel was broken yesterday.

On the other hand, the long upper wick on yesterday’s candle (as indicated by the arrow) points to bear activity. Even if the bullish momentum has not yet exhausted itself, further gains in GBP/USD may face resistance at higher levels, including:

• → Psychological level at 1.3500;
• → The high of 10 March;
• → The upper boundary of the expanded double red descending channel.

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• Gold attracts moderate gains after slump to 4,500.
• Oversold conditions present, but rebound not yet convincing.

Gold faced a “double trouble” scenario this week as the Middle East crisis coincided with a hawkish Fed, causing a 10% slump - the worst since February 2020.

The price plummeted to an almost seven-week low of 4,502, approaching a key psychological level before staging a modest rebound. This development now raises the critical question of whether the March sharp sell-off that started from an all-time high of 5,597 has reached a bottom.

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators on the four-hour chart are turning higher from oversold levels, increasing speculation that the recent sell-off may have been overstretched. The rebound above the previously broken support trendline is another encouraging sign; however, some patience may be required, as the price has yet to surpass the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downtrend at 4,718 and today's resistance of 4,735.

Should the price extend its recovery, the next resistance could be found near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 4,850. Beyond that, the rally may attempt to break above the 5,000 psychological level and the resistance trendline near 5,016, unless the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 4,960 caps further upside.

On the downside, a move below 4,659 could revive selling pressure, bringing the 4,500 level back into focus. Additional losses may find support around 4,400, while a deeper decline could pause near 4,325, a level last seen in December 2025.

In summary, gold’s sell-off appears to have stabilized near a key support zone; however, bulls need to push decisively above 4,718-4,735 to strengthen bullish momentum and restore buying confidence.

• USD/CAD rises above downtrend line, key SMAs.
• But strong resistance and bearish SMA crossover limit upside.
• Momentum signals stay soft despite holding in bullish territory.

USD/CAD is retesting the ceiling of a multi‑week consolidation that has remained intact since late January, near 1.3730, as the commodity‑linked Canadian dollar finds support from elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk, against a softening US dollar as surging energy costs cloud the global rate outlook.

That said, the four‑day rally is showing a lack of strong momentum, as reflected in the technical indicators – the stochastics, RSI, and MACD are all flattening – near the overbought region, just above neutral, and marginally above the zero and signal lines respectively – signalling the mildly bullish but softer broader tone.

Nonetheless, a clean break above the range ceiling would open the door toward the 1.3800 round figure, where the bearishly converging 100‑ and 200‑day simple moving averages (SMAs) cluster, further capping upside. This region also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January pullback. Above that, the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.3890 and the January highs near 1.3930 could follow.

Support below 1.3730, on the way to the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3635, lies at the 50‑ and 20‑day SMAs sitting just underneath. Lower, a break back below the medium‑term downtrend would refocus attention on the range floor at 1.3575. Beneath that, the multi‑month lows near 1.3480 would likely come into view, shifting sentiment decisively bearish.

Summing up, USD/CAD’s mildly bullish rebound from last week’s lows has pushed price action into the upper half of its recent range, but the attempted breakout is being tested, and appears unlikely for now, as momentum lacks the technical conviction needed for follow‑through. Still, dips look well supported within the range, with key SMAs positioned to cushion downside attempts.

GBP/USD rose during the previous session and is now correcting to 1.3403. The pound responded positively to the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with market attention focused on the regulator’s guidance on how the Iran conflict might influence future policy.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for a pause (9-0), a notable shift from February’s more divided 5-4 alignment. Some members have acknowledged the possibility of future rate hikes. The BoE has adopted a wait-and-see approach amid significant uncertainty.

While the rate pause was widely anticipated, market expectations have shifted markedly. Until recently, rate cuts were priced in, but rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict have increased inflationary risks and tilted sentiment towards a more hawkish policy stance.

The BoE estimates that inflation could accelerate to 3.5% in the coming quarters and highlighted the risk that inflation expectations could become entrenched in the economy. At the same time, signs of an economic slowdown persist, which could restrain price increases, though the primary risk now centres on inflation.

Additional labour market data revealed a slowdown in wage growth to its lowest rate since late 2020. Unemployment remains at 5.2%, with employment showing signs of stabilisation. Under normal circumstances, such data might support softer rhetoric; however, the current geopolitical environment and elevated energy prices have pushed inflation risks to the forefront.

Overall, the BoE’s stance remains cautious. While the rate pause continues, the scope for policy easing is diminishing, limiting the pound’s upside potential.

Technical analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3354, currently extending up to 1.3467. A decline to 1.3333 is expected in the near term, with a new consolidation range likely to form following this correction. An upside breakout would pave the way for a continuation wave towards 1.3494, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.3133. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3424. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3333. Should this level be breached, further downside towards 1.3125 is possible. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave towards 1.3494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD’s positive reaction to the BoE’s unanimous hold reflects market recognition that rising inflation risks – driven by geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices – are narrowing the path to policy easing. While the Bank’s cautious stance and the unanimous vote provide some support for sterling, the shift from rate-cut expectations to potential rate hikes has recalibrated market sentiment. With geopolitical developments now taking centre stage and technical indicators pointing to further consolidation, sterling’s near-term direction will likely hinge on whether inflation concerns continue to outweigh signs of domestic economic slowdown.

As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index dropped below the 6,570 level yesterday for the first time in 2026. As a result, the equity market may be on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly decline, closing below its 200-day moving average.

Why Are Equities Falling?

Bearish sentiment is likely being driven by the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East:

• → Elevated oil prices are fuelling expectations of a renewed inflationary surge. This suggests the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer (as reinforced by Powell’s remarks this week), putting pressure on both the economy and corporate performance.
• → Investors are also concerned that the United States could become drawn into a prolonged conflict with Iran, which may pose significant challenges for the country, despite efforts by officials to calm market sentiment.

According to Trading Economics:

• → US President Donald Trump stated that the US is not considering deploying ground troops to the Middle East;
• → Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Iranian regime could face internal collapse;
• → Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel may refrain from further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On 11 March, we analysed the index chart and noted that the lower boundary of the broader channel was acting as support (point A), while the median line served as resistance (as indicated by the arrow).

Since then, selling pressure has led to:

• → the formation of a steeper descending trendline (R2);
• → a move down to a new low at point B, below the previously mentioned channel boundary.

From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it is reasonable to assume that price has entered a Sell-Side Liquidity zone. If so, traders should consider the possibility that the recent bearish breakout below the channel may prove to be false. In that case, the S&P 500 could stage a recovery in the coming sessions, potentially moving back towards the R2 trendline.

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade lower as the bearish sequence remains active. The decline from the recent peak is unfolding in a clear impulsive structure, which shows sellers still control the trend.

From the high, Gold completed a larger corrective structure and then turned sharply lower. The decline is progressing in a five-wave impulse. Within this move, waves (1), (2), and (3) appear complete, with wave (3) showing strong downside momentum.

Price is now correcting in wave (4). This bounce looks mature, but it could still extend slightly higher toward the 4715 area to complete a three-leg corrective structure. Any further upside should remain limited and corrective in nature.

Once wave (4) ends, the market is expected to turn lower again in wave (5). This final leg should complete the current impulsive sequence within black wave ((3)) and extend the broader bearish trend.

We do not recommend selling at current levels due to the ongoing bounce. Instead, traders should wait for wave (4) to finish and then look for selling opportunities in line with the trend.

Overall, the Elliott Wave structure supports further downside in Gold, with wave (5) expected to push prices lower after the current correction completes.

Latest 1 Hour Asia chart update from 03.20.22026

Gold Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJfUkoPtAxM

Markets

Markets yesterday again showed some hefty swings as mutual attacks on energy installations by both Iran and Israel caused the market to further move to a scenario where higher energy prices and supply disruptions might last longer than hoped for. Enter central bank assessments of the likes of the ECB and the Bank of England. The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. Four calls/votes for a 25 bps cut in February were removed. The BoE sent strong language to the market that it stands ready to react so that inflation remains on track to return to the 2% target as higher energy prices were seen a risk of reviving second round effects. The February scenario of inflation moving relatively quickly to 2% traded for an assessment that it might stick between 3%-3.5% instead. UK yields markets initially continued to reposition after the oil price spike earlier in the session, with some easing due to ‘lower’ oil prices later in the session. At the end of the day UK yields still rose between 30.5!! bps (2-y) and 2.7 bps (30-y). Money markets now discount 50% of a first 25 bps hike in April. By Q4 almost three hikes are priced in. Despite the BOE commitment and favorable interest rate support, sterling gained only modestly against the euro, closing still north of the 0.86 resistance (0.863). The ECB left its policy rate unchanged at 2% and provided the market with a framework on how they expect the economy to react to the oil price shock, providing a baseline, adverse and a severe scenario. In its baseline scenario inflation is seen rising to 2.6% this year (vs 1.9% in Dec) and 2% in 2027% (from 1.8%). In an adverse scenario the ECB assumes oil prices to peak at $119p/b in Q2 2026, before converging to the baseline assumptions by Q3 2027. This might cause inflation to jump to 3.5% this year, assuming unchanged monetary policy. In its assessment the ECB indicated that it is well positioned to address the new context and that it is determined to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target. With developments in the Middle East yesterday moving in the direction of at least the adverse scenario, German ST yields still rose 14.5 bps (2-y). The 30-y eased 2.2 bps. Money markets see 60% of an April rate hike and are moving in the direction of cumulative 75 bps hikes by eoy. EUR/USD closed the day higher (1.1589 from 1.145). The move already started before the ECB policy decision and continued afterward, but was at least partially driven by easing oil prices intraday as well.

Markets this morning are pondering comments from Israel (PM Netanyahu) that it would refrain from more attacks in Iranian energy facilities. Still, Brent oil holds near $108 p/b. Asian equities show a mixed picture. US equity futures are trading marginally lower. So no euphory at all. With respect to ECB policy several policy makers (Kazaks, Muller, Nagel) in comments this morning put the spotlights on the April meeting as key in the ECB decision making process. Nagel concludes that the ECB will need to hike rates in April if the price outlook sours.

News & Views

The Czech National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% yesterday in a unanimous decision. According to the Monetary Department’s updated forecast, which partly incorporates higher oil prices, headline inflation will be below 2% this year and very close to the inflation target next year. However, core inflation will remain elevated in the quarters ahead. The Bank Board assessed the risks and uncertainties of the outlook for the fulfilment of the inflation target as balanced overall with current impact of the Middle East conflict not jeopardizing the persistence of the low-inflation environment. The CNB adds that monetary policy is currently still relatively tight compared to the past and deems it necessary to stick to that course. CNB Michl at the press conference said that the central bank isn’t looking at market bets on rates and keeps all options open for future decisions. Ahead of the Iran war, officials saw some room to lower interest rates. The Czech 2y swap rate initially followed global market moves higher as bond markets repositioned for more hawkish central bank functions. It gave up part of the gains after the CNB meeting but still ended around 12 bps higher on the day to close at 4.09%.

White sugar prices hit their highest level since October yesterday as effects from the Middle East conflict broaden out. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing trouble as it is the major trading route for delivering raw sugar to refineries that convert it into white sugar. Other factors in play or lower output coming from India and Brazil’s production mix. Higher oil prices could incentivize sugar mills to divert more cane into ethanol, weighing further on global supply.