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We woke up to another rough week this morning after a weekend that failed to ease tensions in the Middle East. On the contrary, US President Donald Trump gave an ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, otherwise he would “obliterate their power plants.” Iran responded by warning that it would target the region’s energy and desalination infrastructure—and we already had a preview of what that could look like last week.

Iranians appear more resilient than US and Israeli calculations had assumed, and there are growing warnings that this “operation” could turn into something bigger.

One interesting shift: markets are reacting less to Trump’s announcements—tweets and interviews alike—as the US is increasingly isolated in this conflict, with Western allies reluctant to step in. At the same time, the narrative is no longer fully in Washington’s hands, with Iran now shaping expectations and narrative on the ground. TACO hopes are fading.

Oil prices are higher this morning as risks build that regional energy infrastructure could suffer further damage, potentially triggering a larger and more prolonged energy shock. IEA’s Fatih Birol warned last week that this conflict could be the “greatest threat to global energy in history”—which can also be read as a reminder of the urgency to accelerate alternative energy efforts.

US crude started the week above $100 per barrel before easing slightly. Brent crude followed a similar path, jumping to $114pb before retreating toward $112pb. The relatively muted reaction compared to last week’s open suggests that: 1) markets are no longer pricing a quick resolution to the conflict, 2) the US is taking unusual steps such as easing constraints on some Iranian and Russian oil flows, and 3) higher oil prices are feeding into inflation expectations, pushing central bank bets in a more hawkish direction and raising stagflation risks.

In other words, slower global growth expectations could eventually temper demand. Recent price action suggests that the market is increasingly pricing an energy-shock-led slowdown as prices approach $120 per barrel—a level that may act as a near-term ceiling.

You may also ask: $120 for which crude? Because we are also seeing a growing divergence between WTI crude oil and Brent crude. These benchmarks reflect different markets: WTI is more US.-focused, while Brent is seaborne and far more exposed to global flows and geopolitical risks, especially tensions in the Middle East. As a result, when international risks rise, Brent tends to move higher, while WTI remains more anchored to domestic dynamics, widening the gap. In theory, arbitrage should bring them closer over time—but in practice, transport costs and export constraints mean the spread can persist for longer.

All that said, the medium-term outlook remains highly uncertain and markets are reacting. Nikkei futures are down more than 3% at the time of writing, China’s CSI 300 is off nearly 3%, and Korea’s Kospi is down over 6%. US and European futures also point to further losses at the open, while government bond yields are rising on two fronts: 1) higher short-term inflation risks, and 2) increased long-term fiscal pressures linked to military spending. The Trump administration has reportedly requested $200 billion from Congress to fund the Iran operation, adding to concerns after US debt surpassed $39 trillion.

As such, the US 10-year yield is pushing above 4.40%, its highest level since last summer. European moves are even more striking, with German and French 10-year yields at their highest since 2011, and the UK 10-year gilt yield nearing 5%—a level last seen in 2008—on speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to shift from rate cuts to hikes to counter another energy-driven inflation shock. UK inflation update later this week will likely confirm that both headline and core CPI stand around 3% - above the BoE’s 2% target – and these figures reflect February prices – that was before energy prices spiked with the Middle East blast.

Rising rate expectations in Europe are not supporting the euro or sterling against a broadly stronger US dollar, as weaker growth expectations are currently outweighing rate differentials. That dynamic could shift later, but for now the dollar is benefiting from the geopolitical backdrop, alongside energy and defense stocks.

Gold, meanwhile, has not attracted the usual safe-haven inflows. A stronger dollar, rising global yields and the prior rally in gold prices are all weighing on demand. Gold has dropped to $1’358 per ounce this morning, below its 200-day moving average for the first time since last summer. The selloff could deepen if the dollar continues to strengthen and yields remain elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

From a technical perspective, gold has entered a medium-term bearish consolidation below $1’610 per ounce—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s rally. A break below $1’335 could signal a deeper correction and potentially mark the end of the latest upward leg.

In focus today

• In the euro area, the flash consumer confidence indicator for March is released, which will shed a first light on how consumer sentiment has reacted to the war in Iran and subsequent energy price increases.
• In Japan, February inflation is set to be released overnight. Fuel subsidies and subsiding food inflation has pulled inflation lower recently, with Bank of Japan's preferred measure, CPI excl. fresh food, at 2.0% in January for the first time in two years. This trend will also be reflected in February data, but what matters now is the occurring loss of purchasing power as energy prices surge and imports become pricier amid yen weakening. A Bank of Japan rate hike is on the cards, and we expect it to come in April.
• The key market events this week are tomorrow's March PMIs for the euro area, UK, and US, and Thursday's Norges Bank meeting. We expect a hold at 4%, consistent with signals at the rate meetings in December and January. On Wednesday, Riksbank minutes from Sweden will be released. Developments in the Middle East will naturally remain central.

Economic and market news

What happened over the weekend

In the Middle East, geopolitical tensions are intensifying as 'Operation Epic Fury' enters its fourth week, with ongoing airstrikes in Tehran this morning. Late on Saturday, Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants within 48 hours if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while Iran has vowed counterattacks on US infrastructure across the region. An attempted strike on the US-UK base in Diego Garcia has sparked concerns over Tehran's long-range missile capabilities. On Friday, the US issued a 30-day waiver for the sale of Iranian oil loaded on vessels into the US, while Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-developed oil fields.

Oil prices were about unchanged at the market open compared to the close on Friday with Brent crude trading above USD110/bbl.

In central bank space, last week's packed meeting calendar was followed by mixed comments from policymakers. From the ECB, President Lagarde struck a balanced tone, likely reflecting divisions within the Governing Council. While Nagel hinted at a potential rate hike in April if inflation risks increase, other members appeared more measured, signalling a calmer approach compared to 2022. From the Fed, Governor Waller highlighted inflation concerns tied to oil shocks, suggesting caution is needed despite earlier dovish stances.

Equities: The risk-off sentiment that took hold last week lingers this morning. Asian markets have opened sharply lower this morning with Kospi -6%, Hang Seng -4% and Nikkei 225 -3%. Investors are reacting to Trump's Truth Social post over weekend, where he threatened to strike Iranian power infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened within 48 hours.

The escalation puts investors in a difficult spot. Unlike the destruction of Nord Stream in 2022, which imposed a lasting constraint, this episode has, until now, looked more transitory. However, if energy infrastructure is hit, the shock risks turning permanent. This explains the negative reaction in Asia this morning. However, conversely, if the US can take control of the strait, it would be taken as risk positive. For the moment, investors are left guessing.

Many major equity benchmarks slipped into correction territory last week. Japan, Europe, emerging markets and Sweden all down at least 10%, while the US is only about 5% lower. For global portfolios, that US resilience is a relief. However, for investors in Europe it removes a potential source of positioning support that might otherwise help a rebound. Our correction monitor is still not signalling oversold conditions. With neither positioning nor valuation providing a clear cushion - equities were expensive going into this - oil will continue to set the tone this week. However, we see the debate shifting more to growth and demand destruction than central bank repricing.

FI and FX: After NOK, the EUR was the best performing G10 currency last week - a surprising feat since the pressure on energy prices remained high. Speculation in an ECB hike already at the next meeting in April has sent EUR interest rates higher and kept the EUR well supported. US yields started grinding higher last week and the market started to have second thoughts on whether the Fed would cut this year. Energy markets will likely continue to set the tone for FX and FI markets this week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6986; (P) 0.7042; (R1) 0.7080; More...

Immediate focus in now on 0.6943 support in AUD/USD. Decisive break there should confirm rejection by 0.7206 key fibonacci resistance. That would set up deeper correction to the whole up trend from 0.5913, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current levels would retain near term bullishness for breakout through 0.7187 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will pave the way back to 0.8006. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Global markets are entering a critical countdown as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalate ahead of a looming deadline. US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum has introduced a clear timeline for military action, shifting market dynamics toward event-driven positioning and heightened volatility.

Asian markets have reacted most sharply to the developments. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than -6%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell around -4%, reflecting both direct and indirect exposure to the unfolding crisis. US equity futures are also under pressure, though declines remain less severe.

The primary driver remains the risk of a sustained energy shock. With the Strait of Hormuz still constrained, the ultimatum has forced markets to consider the possibility of a prolonged disruption to global oil flows. This has intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Iran’s counter-threat has broadened the scope of risks. By signaling possible attacks on energy and water infrastructure across the Gulf, Tehran has raised the prospect of systemic disruption extending beyond oil supply. This introduces a wider range of economic consequences, from energy shortages to industrial slowdowns.

A particularly notable development is the emergence of financial risk as a direct channel. Iran’s warning targeting holders of US Treasuries has unsettled Asian sovereign investors, highlighting vulnerabilities within global capital flows. This has added a extra uncertainty, linking geopolitical escalation to financial stability concerns.

The regional impact is especially pronounced in East Asia. Countries such as Japan and South Korea face dual exposure through energy dependence and financial integration. Even with significant oil reserves, the possibility of a prolonged blockade is driving defensive positioning and accelerating equity market declines.

At the same time, supply chain disruptions are beginning to surface. Delays in critical materials used in semiconductor manufacturing, including helium and etching chemicals, are raising concerns about the continuity of AI-related production. This has contributed to heavy selling in technology sectors across East Asia.

Currency markets are reflecting a similar picture. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are underperforming at the bottom. Meanwhile, Dollar and Canadian Dollar are benefiting from a combination of safe-haven demand and energy-linked support, while Yen and European currencies are sitting in the middle of the performance board.

With the ultimatum set to expire at 23:44 GMT Monday, markets face a binary event risk. A military strike could trigger a sharp escalation and broader market dislocation, while any delay may offer only temporary relief. Until then, investors are likely to remain cautious, with positioning driven by the potential for rapid shifts in both geopolitical and macro conditions.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.47%. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.94%. China Shanghai SSE is down -3.75%. Singapore Strait Times is down -2.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.042 at 2.310.

Silver may find floor at 60, but break risks deeper fall to 50

Silver’s correction is approaching a critical stage as macro pressure builds and key supports come into focus. While 60 may provide a floor supported by industrial demand, a break could trigger a deeper move toward 50, shifting the balance from fundamentals to technical liquidation. Read more.

Stagflation test begins: PMIs to reveal growth shock and rising costs

Markets enter a critical phase as attention shifts from pricing an energy shock to testing its real economic impact. With oil disruptions intensifying, this week’s CPI and global PMIs will determine whether stagflation is already taking hold. The results could reinforce policy divergence—or trigger a broader reassessment of growth risks and central bank paths. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6986; (P) 0.7042; (R1) 0.7080; More...

Immediate focus in now on 0.6943 support in AUD/USD. Decisive break there should confirm rejection by 0.7206 key fibonacci resistance. That would set up deeper correction to the whole up trend from 0.5913, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current levels would retain near term bullishness for breakout through 0.7187 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will pave the way back to 0.8006. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Silver is approaching a critical support zone as its "dual role" as a monetary and industrial asset continues to diverge. Tightening expectations on global central banks, driven by the energy shock, are weighing on its monetary side, leaving the 64 support zone increasingly vulnerable. While industrial demand and persistent physical deficit may offer a floor near 60, the risk is that broader liquidation and "technical forces" could drive a deeper correction toward 50.

The dominant driver at this stage is the repricing of global monetary conditions. Elevated oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, prompting markets to anticipate a more aggressive policy response from central banks. Rising yields and a higher rate outlook are eroding the appeal of non-yielding assets, placing sustained pressure on Silver.

This marks a clear shift in market dynamics. Earlier gains were supported by strong physical demand and tightening supply conditions, but price action is now increasingly dictated by macro positioning. Investors are adjusting exposure as policy expectations evolve, with monetary factors outweighing structural fundamentals in the near term.

Technically, Silver is now pressing 64 support cluster, which aligns with 61.8% retracement of 28.28 (2025 low) to 121.83 at 64.01. Given the current downward momentum, this level is at risk of giving way, especially if yields continue to rise and risk sentiment deteriorates further.

A break below 64 would shift focus to 60 level, a key psychological and technical support. This zone is where Silver’s "industrial side" may begin to assert itself more clearly, as lower prices attract demand from sectors such as solar and advanced manufacturing.

The physical backdrop remains supportive. The market is facing its sixth consecutive year of supply deficit, and deeper price declines are likely to be met with strategic buying from industrial users. This dynamic could help stabilize prices in the 60 area, at least initially. A strong bounce from 60, followed by break of 74.52 resistance, will be an important sign of stabilization.

However, the risk is that financial flows overwhelm physical demand. In a period of elevated volatility, liquidation driven by margin calls and ETF outflows can dominate price action. In such conditions, Silver may decouple from its underlying fundamentals as "technical forces" take precedence.

If 60 fails to hold, the correction could extend toward the 48.60–54.44 zone, corresponding to the prior Wave 4 consolidation of the up trend from 28.28 to 121.83. That coincides with 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.35.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a recovery wave from the 1.1410 level.
• It traded above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1510 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD failed to clear the 1.3450 resistance zone and trimmed gains.
• Gold prices declined heavily below $5,000 and $4,800.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro found support near 1.1410 and started a recovery wave against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1500 before it faced resistance.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1510. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low.

However, the pair faced resistance near 1.1605 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low also acted as a resistance.

On the upside, the pair is now facing sellers near 1.1600. The first major resistance sits at 1.1620. A close above 1.1620 could open the doors for gains above 1.1640. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1655.

If there is no upside break above 1.1600, the pair might start a fresh decline. Immediate support is seen near 1.1510. The first key support sits at 1.1450. A close below 1.1450 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.1410 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, the price failed to stay above $4,800 and started a sharp decline toward $4,400. The main support sits at $4,200.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• ECB's Cipollone speech.
• ECB's Lane speech.

The ongoing conflict in Iran and concerns about disruption to the Strait of Hormuz continued to pressure financial markets last week. Oil prices remained highly volatile and tested the $100 level several times as traders focused on supply risks. At the same time, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in stronger than expected, adding to concerns that inflation may stay elevated.

Market expectations have started to shift. Instead of expecting interest rate cuts, markets are now pricing in U.S. interest rate increases. U.S. stock markets fell for a fourth straight week as higher inflation and interest rate expectations weighed on sentiment. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both kept rates unchanged, in line with expectations.

The Bank of Japan also left rates unchanged, but comments from Governor Ueda were seen as slightly more open to future rate increases, which briefly supported the yen. Gold dropped below $5,000, falling about 10% as speculative selling increased, with the strong U.S. dollar putting pressure on prices.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

As the conflict in Iran continues, equity markets are likely to remain under pressure. Rising inflation expectations in the U.S. and the possibility of interest rate increases are adding further downside risk. For now, focusing on selling opportunities remains the preferred strategy. However, rather than selling into weakness, it is better to wait for a pullback toward the 10-day moving average before entering short positions, as the market is already bearish. Resistance levels are at 46,500, 47,500, and 48,000. Support is seen at 45,000, 44,500, 44,000, and 43,500.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei index closed near its yearly lows as higher oil prices and continued weakness in U.S. equities pushed Japanese stocks lower. In addition, signals from the Bank of Japan suggesting possible future interest rate increases have added further pressure on the market. Selling remains the preferred short-term strategy. A break below 51,000 could trigger a sharper move lower, while a pullback toward the 10-day moving average may offer a better opportunity to enter short positions. Resistance is seen at 53,000, 54,750, 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000, while support is at 51,000円, 50,000円, and 49,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY moved higher on the back of strong oil prices, testing resistance near the 160 level, with no clear sign of intervention from the Bank of Japan. Comments from the Bank of Japan regarding the possibility of intervention triggered a brief pullback, but the pair recovered and closed the week above the 10-day moving average, keeping the short-term bias bullish. For now, range trading between 158 and 160 appears to be the best short-term strategy. Resistance is at 160, 162, and 165, while support is seen at 158.50, 158.00, and 156.50.

Gold

Gold’s recent weak performance, despite the conflict in Iran, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar, led to a sharp decline once the $5,000 support level was broken, as speculators exited positions. The market is now clearly oversold, which could provide short-term buying opportunities this week. However, a break below the yearly low around $4,400 could trigger another significant move lower. Resistance is at $4,700, $4,850, $5,000, and $5,100, while support is at $4,400, $4,300, $4,200, $4,100, and $4,000.

Crude Oil

Resistance at $100 has limited further gains as the conflict in Iran continues and concerns about restricted oil supply remain. Despite this, oil has stayed above the 10-day moving average, showing continued strength. As long as the conflict continues and price holds above this level, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred strategy this week. Resistance is at $100, $110, $120, $125, and $130, while support is at $90, $80, $75, $70, and $67.5.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued to test resistance near $75,000 as recent price stability encouraged speculative buying. However, weakness in U.S. equities reduced overall risk appetite, causing the market to pull back and close near the middle of the $65,000 to $75,000 range. Range trading remains the preferred short-term strategy. Resistance is at $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, while support is at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: U.S. Construction Spending
• Tuesday: Japan National CPI and S&P Global Services PMI, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• Wednesday: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Australia CPI, U.K. CPI, U.S. Current Account
• Thursday: Japan BoJ Core CPI
• Friday: U.K. Retail Sales, U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations

The main focus this week will be the conflict in Iran, as markets are starting to price in a longer war, despite comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. is close to meeting its objectives. Equity markets have been under steady pressure, and there is still a risk of panic selling if oil prices spike above $100 on further negative news from the region.

There is limited major economic data this week. The key releases include manufacturing PMI data from several countries, Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and U.S. consumer sentiment data. Markets will be watching closely for any signs of how inflation and growth expectations are evolving.

Natural Gas (NG_F) is poised to continue higher after ending a bearish cycle in February 2026, Now in a nest, the commodity is expected to break higher while the February 2026 low is not breached.

Over the long term, Natural Gas (NG_F) has exhibited a choppy, sideways price pattern. Since 1995, it has failed to sustain a trend of either higher highs or lower lows. The commodity completed a major supercycle rally in December 2005, reaching a record high. Following that peak, a bearish corrective cycle commenced, lasting until March 2024, during which it fell to its pre-1995 lows. From the March 2024 low, a fresh bullish cycle began in a 5-wave structure, concluding in January 2026. A subsequent, highly volatile pullback ensued, ending in February 2026. Since then, the commodity has been in a “nest” formation, awaiting a bullish momentum to initiate a breakout higher.

Natural Gas H4 Elliott Wave Outlook – 22 March, 2026

We recently shared the H4 chart with Elliottwave-forecast members. The chart shows a completed impulse structure for cycle degree wave I in January 2026. According to Elliott Wave theory, a 3-wave correction/pullback follows a 5-wave trend/advance. Wave II, within a 3-wave structure, followed and ended in February 2026 at $2.779. From this February 2026 low, we anticipate a bullish impulse or 5-wave reaction to confirm that wave II has ended. The chart above shows a triple nest emerging, suggesting a significant bullish move could soon follow. However, until we see a 5-wave response, new buyers will remain hesitant. As retail traders, it’s better to join a move rather than attempt to initiate it. Let the market show the way, and then we will follow.

In the coming days/weeks, we anticipate a 5-wave advance. Once confirmed, we can confidently buy dips within the blue box. Until then, the reaction from $2.779 is likely a 3-wave bounce. Downside could resume below $2.779, as much as the expected 5-wave upside. We need more data in the coming days/weeks to determine which scenario unfolds. We always advise our members to trade with the market’s direction, whether red or green, and never against it. Currently, we don’t want to sell, but it’s not yet time to buy Natural Gas.

CHFJPY : ⬆️ Buy

• CHFJPY reversed from the support zone
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 203.60

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the round support level 200.00 (which has been reversing the price from February), support trendline from December and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

Given the strong daily uptrend, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 203.60 (former top of wave 1 from February).

DAX: ⬇️ Sell

• DAX broke long-term support level 23000.00
• Likely to fall to support level 21500.00

DAX index recently broke the support zone between the powerful long-term support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from June of 2025) and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from April.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active weekly impulse wave (C) from the start of March.

DAX index can be expected to fall to the next support level 21500.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (C)).