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Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerated sharply in April, adding to expectations that the Bank of Japan could move toward another rate hike as early as June. The Corporate Goods Price Index rose 4.9% yoy, accelerating from 2.9% yoy in March and far exceeding market expectations of 3.0% yoy. It marked the fastest annual increase since May 2023.

On a monthly basis, producer prices climbed 2.3% mom after rising 1.0% mom previously, highlighting the growing impact of higher energy and import costs on Japan’s heavily import-dependent economy.

Petroleum and coal product prices rose 5.3% yoy, while chemical goods prices surged 9.2% yoy, the fastest pace since September 2022, reflecting broadening cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The weak Yen is also amplifying imported inflation pressures. Japan’s yen-based import price index surged 17.5% yoy in April, the fastest rise since December 2022.

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector lost significant momentum in April, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index falling from 52.8 to 50.5, only marginally above the breakeven 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The details of the report pointed to a broad loss of momentum, particularly in forward-looking components tied to demand and supply-chain activity.

New orders dropped sharply from 55.0 to 48.2, slipping into contraction territory and signaling weakening future demand. Deliveries also deteriorated notably, falling from 49.6 to 46.5 — the weakest reading since July 2024 — highlighting growing disruptions in supply chains and raw material availability. Production eased from 53.4 to 51.7, while finished stocks declined from 53.8 to 50.5. Employment was the only major component to improve, rising from 51.8 to 53.4.

BusinessNZ Director of Advocacy Catherine Beard said many firms cited the impact of the Iran war on freight costs, fuel prices, and delivery times for raw materials. “The proportion of respondents highlighting negative influences on their business performance was 63.6%,” she noted, up from 62.0% in March.

BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis warned the slowdown may now be becoming more serious. “We feared it was only a matter of time before the wheels started to fall off and, alas, the April survey indicates that time may now have arrived,” he said.

Full NZ BNZ PMI release here.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned Thursday that efforts to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by easing bank liquidity requirements would be misguided and could ultimately weaken financial stability. Speaking in New York, Barr pushed back against growing debate over reducing the central bank’s “footprint” in financial markets.

“I think shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective,” Barr said. He argued that many proposals aimed at reducing Fed holdings “would undermine bank resilience, impede money market functioning, and, ultimately, threaten financial stability.” Barr also warned that some of the proposed changes “would actually increase the Fed’s footprint in financial markets” by making banks more reliant on emergency central bank liquidity during periods of stress.

Barr specifically argued that lessons from the 2023 regional banking turmoil point toward stronger, not weaker, liquidity safeguards. “If anything, the bank stresses of 2023 suggest that liquidity requirements should go up and not down,” he said.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled Thursday that he remains comfortable keeping interest rates unchanged for now, arguing that policymakers are still waiting to see how inflation pressures tied to the Middle East conflict evolve. Speaking in New York, Williams said monetary policy is currently “in a good place right now” and emphasized there is no immediate case for either tightening or easing.

“I don't see there's any reason at all to raise rates right now or lower rates right now,” Williams said. While acknowledging that the Middle East war has pushed inflation pressures higher, he stressed that “longer-term projections have been stable, which is a good thing.”

Williams suggested he is not yet seeing signs that energy-driven inflation is spreading broadly through the economy. “We're not seeing... unusual second-round effects or persistent effects. But we just have to keep watching,” he said. Williams also noted that much of the tariff-related inflation impact may already have occurred.

• US stock benchmarks explode to new highs in today's session.
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 print fresh records, while the Dow Jones gets back above 50,000.
• Exploring technical levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs today, fueled by strong global risk appetite. The S&P 500 has moved past the 7,500 level, while the Nasdaq is also setting new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed back above 50,000.

The Chairman Warsh trade is leading market activity. Investors see his confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair as positive for stocks. Large investors are moving money into growth and risk-oriented assets, while other asset classes are seeing less demand.

Precious metals, which recently benefited from safe-haven buying, are now giving back some of their gains as market fears ease. This rise in stocks is global, with international indexes also rising, signalling broad risk appetite.

The ongoing diplomatic summit between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping is also supporting the rally. Investors are encouraged by the positive tone from Beijing. This important meeting is improving investor sentiment and offers hope that the global economy will move away from the deglobalization trends seen in 2025.

While markets are rallying, the Federal Reserve is also seeing major changes. Kevin Warsh has joined the Fed board as its new leader, and Miran is stepping down.

Since there has been no official statement about Jerome Powell leaving, Wall Street assumes he will stay on the Board of Governors for now.

Daily market performance, May 14, 2026. Source: Finviz.

To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the stock market, 15:22. Source: TradingView, May 14, 2026.

Nvidia continues to lead the push in semiconductors, with the sector pulling the rest of the market higher.

Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 14, 2026.

The Dow Jones broke its 49,500 to 50,000 range to the upside, looking to close above the key level for the first time since February 11.

Expect to see a continued push towards the end of the week, with the prior all-time highs being the next target for the bulls, around 50,500.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 50,200 morning highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-time highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 gap fill pivot 49,500
• Major pivot: 49,000 to 49,100, short-term bearish below
• Momentum support 48,500
• Pivotal support at 48,000, mid-term bearish below
• Mini support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 14, 2026.

Nasdaq is now forming what seems to be the basis of a short-term top, with the 2H RSI now forming a bearish divergence, turning lower despite the daily record highs. Bears will want to see a push below 29,400 with confirmation below the 2H 50-period MA at 29,250.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,500 to 29,600 current resistance
• Daily highs 29,620

Support Levels

• 2H 50-period MA at 29,250, short-term bearish below
• 28,500 short-term pivot
• 28,000 major psychological resistance now pivot and channel highs
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum pivot at 27,000, 4H 50-period MA
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH support 26,200 to 26,300

S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 14, 2026.

The S&P 500 showed high potential for a channel breakout and did so this morning, reaching a 7,526 new record.

Despite the overbought momentum, the index still looks strong enough to pursue its run higher. Nevertheless, keep an eye on whether the Nasdaq ends up correcting, as it may drag sentiment lower with it.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,525 daily ATH resistance
• Next stop 7,600

Support Levels

• Momentum pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230, bearish below
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level, war lows

Keep track of WTI crude and the Trump-Xi meeting throughout the end of the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe trades.

Nasdaq-100: ⬆️ Buy

• Nasdaq-100 reversed from support level 29000.00
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 30000.00

Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the support level 29000.00 (which started the active minor impulse wave iii).

The support zone near the support level 29000.00 was strengthened by the support trendline of the sharp daily up channel from March.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 30000.00 – target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.59; (P) 157.75; (R1) 158.00; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 157.92 will indicate that pullback from 160.71 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. On the downside, below 156.77 minor support will bring retest of 155.01. Firm break there will resume the fall from 160.71 to 152.25 support next.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.13) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7798; (P) 0.7814; (R1) 0.7831; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. With 0.7847 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7760 will resume the whole decline form 0.8041, and target 100% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7656. However, firm break of 0.7847 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7923 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3486; (P) 1.3518; (R1) 1.3553; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rally remains mildly in favor. On the upside, firm break of 1.3657 will resume the rally from 1.3158 to retest 1.3867 high. However, decisive break of 1.3453 will argue that the rebound has already completed, and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.3158 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).