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Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the post meeting press conference that the US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is entering 2026 on "firm footing". He added that monetary policy is "not on a preset course", reiterating that future rate adjustments will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. He said the Fed is “well positioned” to determine the extent and timing of any additional moves, emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach rather than signaling near-term action.

The press conference turned more pointed when Powell was asked about the implications for American households if the Fed were to lose its independence. He argued that independence is not about protecting policymakers, but about safeguarding credibility, noting that every advanced democracy has converged on the practice of insulating monetary policy from direct political control.

Powell warned that losing independence would make it difficult to restore institutional credibility, stressing that central banks serve the public best when allowed to operate free from political interference. He said he remains confident that the Fed can maintain that independence, adding that both he and his colleagues are firmly committed to preserving it.

The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – Slightly hawkish tone and the US Dollar is strengthening.

Changes to the previous statement include a more robust outlook on employment and the economy – This could take out future cuts but for now participants are awaiting for Powell.

The votes for the pause are at 10-2 – Fed's Waller and Miran dissented.

The pause was 98% priced so not surprising to observe the quiet atmosphere in Markets.

You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.

Nothing surprising is appearing in the Statement – Except for a continued rebound in the US Dollar, volatility is low for now.

Traders will be awaiting closely for Powell's Press Conference – Log in to his Live speech (at 14:30 E.T.) right here.

Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve

Pre-Conference Market Pricing

Market Pricing for the March meeting (14:20) – Source: FedWatch Tool

Pre-Conference Asset Board – Courtesy of Finviz

Market Reactions

Dollar rallies

US Dollar (DXY) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView – January 28, 2026

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the policy rate fixed at the target range of 3.5%-3.75%. The move comes after three consecutive quarter-point "risk management" cuts at the past three meetings.

The FOMC's press release struck a relatively balanced tone. Importantly, the prior reference to "the downside risks to employment having increased" was removed – suggesting the Committee no longer feels the need for further risk management cuts. The characterization of the labor market largely reflects a "mark-to-market" with job gains now described as "remaining low" (as opposed to "having slowed") and the unemployment as "showing some signs of stabilizing" (as opposed to "has moved up since earlier this year").

Inflation is still viewed as "somewhat elevated", but the Committee dropped the prior reference of "has moved up since earlier in the year", reflecting more recent readings, which came in on the cooler side.

The Committee also upgraded its assessment of recent economic activity to "solid" from "moderate".

Ten of the twelve Committee members voted in favor of today's decision. Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both dissented in favor of another quarter-point cut.

Key Implications

Today's decision was widely expected. With the risk management cuts now in the rearview mirror and the policy rate nearing a more neutral setting, the FOMC is content to take a pause and better assess how last year's easing filters through to the broader economy.

The changes in today's statement suggest there's now a higher bar for further rate cuts – and rightfully so. Not only has the labor market shown some signs of stabilizing in recent months, but economic activity also appears to have ended last year on a more solid footing. This suggests a stronger growth impulse coming into 2026, which is likely to be further amplified by fiscal stimulus included in the One Big Beautiful Bill. Absent an unexpected deterioration in the labor market, we think that the FOMC will remain on the sidelines until there's more visible progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target, which is unlikely to come until later this year.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, in line with expectations, but the decision was not unanimous. Two governors—Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller—dissented, preferring an immediate 25bp rate cut.

Despite the dissent, the statement offered no clear signal that a rate cut is imminent at the next meeting. The overall tone remained cautious rather than preparatory, suggesting the majority remains unconvinced that conditions yet warrant an easing move.

The Fed described economic activity as expanding at a "solid pace",. While noting that job gains have remained low and the unemployment rate has shown signs of stabilization. Inflation was again characterized as "somewhat elevated".

Uncertainty around the outlook remains high. The Committee emphasized it is attentive to risks on "both sides of its dual mandate" and reiterated its willingness to adjust policy if needed. For now, however, the message is one of flexibility rather than urgency, leaving markets without a clear near-term easing signal.

Full FOMC statement here.

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

• Gold (XAU/USD) peaking at $5,311/oz and Silver (XAG/USD) trading around $115.10.
• The surge is driven by a "perfect storm" of factors
• Traders eyeing a potential entry for Gold at the swing high of $5190 and monitoring Silver's wedge pattern breakout for a potential $15 rally.
• Key levels to watch for Silver with support at $110.00 and resistance at $116.00 before the all-time high of $117.75.

January 2026 continues to prove historic for commodity markets. If you have been watching the charts, you likely saw Gold smashing through records while Silver continues its impressive climb.

Now the reasons for these moves and the potential targets are what most people are discussing. Rightly so, and I thought we could take a look at the various factors at work and how to navigate the current environment from a trading perspective.

The Current Rally

The Gold (XAU/USD) price broke through the psychological barrier of $5,300, reaching a peak of $5,311 in early trading. This marks the eighth straight day of record-setting gains for the yellow metal.

Silver (XAG/USD) Silver is also performing exceptionally well, trading around $115.10. It is currently holding steady above the $115.00 mark and pushing back toward its own record high of $117.74, set just a few days ago on Monday, January 26.

Why Are Prices Rising Today?

There isn't just one reason for this surge; it is a "perfect storm" of several factors driving investors toward safe assets.

Safe-Haven Demand (Fear in the Markets) Markets are nervous, and when they get nervous, they buy Gold and Silver. Current geopolitical tensions are high. News of friction between the US and NATO regarding Greenland, alongside ongoing issues in the Russia-Ukraine war and Iran-US tensions has people looking for safety.

A Weaker US Dollar. One of the main reasons for this week's sharp rally in Gold and Silver has been the ‘demise’ of the US Dollar that has slid to its lowest level in four years.

Since commodities like Gold and Silver are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes them cheaper for foreign buyers, driving up demand. Reports suggest a growing "crisis of confidence" in some US assets is fueling this drop which include concerns about Fed independence.

Source: LSEG

Federal Reserve Expectations. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. However, there is a strong belief that interest rates will be cut later this year. Lower interest rates are generally good for Gold and Silver because they don't pay interest like bonds do; when rates fall, metals become more attractive and this hope continues to underpin the longer term bull trend.

Trade War & Tariff Fears Talk of new tariffs and trade disputes involving the US, Canada, and China is adding to the uncertainty. This "trade war" atmosphere is a classic driver for precious metal rallies.

Potential Opportunities Moving Forward - Gold & Silver

Moving forward and the bulls look to be firmly in control.

Going against the strong trend at the moment does not appear to be a wise move. The lack of historic price action will make a potential short at this stage guesswork at best.

Picking a top is not easy in the best of circumstances let alone one with such little price action to evaluate.

Now that is not to say that short-term intraday opportunities may not present themselves. The current volatility evident in markets means attractive risk-to-reards may be achieved even from an intraday perspective.

Looking at the Gold one-hour chart, and trying to keep things simple, the ideal move from here for those looking to get involved would be a pullback to the 50-day MA and breakout level of $5105. However that level is quite far from current prices and may not materialize.

A more immediate area that would be bulls could eye for an entry may be the swing high from January 27 at the $5190 handle. This may provide bulls with an excellent risk-to-reward opportunity either heading into or post the FOMC event later today.

Gold One-hour chart, January 28, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Silver Technical Outlook

Looking at the one-hour silver chart and we do have more to work with.

SIlver is trading in a wedge pattern, with a breakout opening up a potential $15 rally. This is about a 10% move which is significant to say the least.

This is definitely a setup worth monitoring. A break to the downside may find support at the psychological 110.00 handle before the 100-day MA at 105.48 and the psychological 100.00 mark come into play.

A move to the upside here faces hurdles at the 116.00 handle before the all-time highs at 117.75 comes into focus.

Silver one-hour chart, January 28, 2026

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver broke round resistance level 100.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 117.85

Silver recently broke through the resistance area at the intersection of the round resistance level 100.00 and the resistance trendline of the sharp daily up channel from the start of January.

The breakout of the resistance level 100.00 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 – which belongs to the strong impulse wave (C) from October.

Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 117.85 (which formed the daily Shooting Star earlier this month).

Brent Crude Oil: ⬆️ Buy

• Brent Crude Oil broke resistance level 66.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 68.00

Brent Crude Oil recently broke through the resistance area between the resistance level 66.00 (which has been reversing the price from October) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from August.

The breakout of the resistance level 66.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction (B) from June.

Brent Crude Oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 68.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

• The US Dollar decline looks like a part of the White House’s plan.
• Gold is rising on capital inflows.

Donald Trump has added fuel to the fire of the falling US dollar. The president’s words that the value of the dollar is ‘great’ underlined that US officials are comfortable with the dollar’s decline, only reinforcing the drop to its lowest level since February 2022. This is causing a rally of the main forex pair to 1.20, despite the forecasted 5.4% growth in US GDP in the fourth quarter, and the FOMC’s unwillingness to cut rates until at least June, according to leading indicators from the Atlanta Fed.

The White House is sticking to its guns. In Davos, Trump asked a rhetorical question: why is the US economy strong, the risk of default low, and interest rates higher than in other countries? The United States pays 4.2% on its 10-year debt, while Japan pays 2.2% and China 1.8%. And this is a heavy amount ticking on top of the $38 trillion debt, a staggering additional cost to the budget.

Donald Trump wants to reduce borrowing costs. The Fed’s models show a direct link between a strong economy and the risks of accelerating inflation. However, fundamental analysis suggests that a strong economy cannot have a weak currency. The example of the US dollar shows that it can.

Will the Fed put a spoke in the wheel of the EURUSD bulls? Jerome Powell can do so with his hawkish rhetoric. However, if the central bank retains the phrase about considering additional rate adjustments in the accompanying statement, this could, on the contrary, accelerate the fall of the dollar. The markets will perceive such a move as a signal of resistance to a prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary expansion.

The collapse of the USD index allowed gold to break above $5,300 per ounce for the first time in history. Precious metals act as a politically neutral asset. They react to White House policy but are not dependent on it in the same way as stocks, bonds and the US dollar. As a result, investors are increasing their gold holdings to hedge against political risks.

Gold got support from both capital flights from the US and capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market. Many believed that Donald Trump’s promise to turn America into the world crypto capital would cause Bitcoin to break record after record. In fact, it has become an asset dependent on White House policy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1902; (P) 1.1992; (R1) 1.2134; More….

A temporary top is formed at 1.2081 in EUR/USD with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 1.1835 support. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 38.2% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1917 from 1.1576 at 1.3434. However, break of 1.1835 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1443) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.