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AUD/USD Daily Report
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6496; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6536; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it's still staying below 0.6536 resistance. More consolidations could be seen, but even in case of another dip, further rise is in favor favor as long as 0.6406 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6406 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6536 at 0.6298.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.
Aussie Firmer in Quiet Markets as US-China Trade Talks Continue
Global markets remain in a state of cautious anticipation as high-level trade negotiations between the US and China continue for a second day in London. While there’s no definitive outcome yet, mild optimism lingers. Asian equities reflected that mood, with Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both trading slightly higher. Yet the prevailing sense is one of hesitation, with limited conviction behind the moves. Investors are still waiting for substantive developments before making bolder positioning decisions.
In the currency markets, Kiwi and Aussie continue to outperform for the week so far, buoyed by broad risk resilience and perhaps early hopes that renewed dialogue could reduce global trade frictions. However, upside momentum in both currencies has been sluggish. At the other end, Loonie is trading as the weakest, followed by Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Dollar, Euro, and British Pound are largely directionless, trading in the middle of the weekly performance board.
The London meetings between US and Chinese officials mark the second day of high-stakes negotiations aimed at resolving the fallout from earlier tariff escalations. While Monday’s talks yielded no breakthrough, the inclusion of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in this round is notable. His agency oversees export controls, signaling the centrality of rare earths in the ongoing discussions. These magnets, vital to EV production and defense equipment, have become a leverage point for Beijing as it holds a near-monopoly over global supply.
Markets are not pricing in a full resolution just yet. Most expectations center around a tentative agreement on technical issues or interim concessions, such as expanded export licenses. However, structural divisions persist, particularly over technology and national security. Without more substantive signs of compromise, the fragile sentiment boost from the talks could quickly fade, especially if either side issues a combative post-meeting statement.
Technically, EUR/AUD is now pressing 1.7460 support as the decline from 1.7705 extends. Firm break there will argue that choppy recovery from 1.7245 has completed as a correction, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245. That would also suggest that fall from 1.8854 is ready to resume through 1.7245 low.
In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.89%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.15%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.13%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.002 at 1.476. Overnight, DOW closed down -0.00%. S&P 500 rose 0.09%. NASDAQ rose 0.31%. 10-year yield fell -0.028 to 4.482.
BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms gradual tightening path, cites limited room for rate cuts
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue, though cautiously, once the central bank gains "more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level".
Ueda explained that BoJ still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains both stable and sustained.
However, Ueda also flagged a significant limitation in policy space should economic conditions deteriorate. With the short-term policy rate still only at 0.5%, the BoJ has "limited room" to cut rates in response to any sharp downturn in growth.
Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment edges higher as rate cuts clash with growth worries
Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rose a modest 0.5% mom in June to 92.6, reflecting a population still mired in what Westpac called a “holding pattern of cautious pessimism.”
The data reveal "two clear opposing forces" shaping household attitudes: easing inflation and RBA’s May rate cut have improved perceptions around major purchases. On the other hand, sluggish domestic growth and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on expectations.
Looking ahead, attention turns to the RBA’s next meeting on July 7–8. With economic data remaining mixed and labor market tightness still evident, Westpac expects the central bank to proceed with caution and keep the cash rate on hold. Nonetheless, a fresh round of economic projections in August could pave the way for another 25 basis point cut, as RBA recalibrates its stance amid still-sluggish growth.
Australia’s NAB business confidence lifts to 2, but employment conditions erode
Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement in confidence was not matched by underlying business conditions, which weakened further. Business Conditions index slipped from 2 to 0, with trading conditions dipping slightly from 6 to 5, profitability remaining in the red at -4, and employment conditions dropping from 4 to 0 — all pointing to a stagnating environment.
On the inflation front, cost indicators presented a mixed picture. Labor cost growth remained firm at a quarterly equivalent pace of 1.7%. Purchase cost and final product price growth eased to 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Retail price growth held steady at 1.2%, suggesting persistent margin pressures.
NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld emphasized that business conditions are still weak and warned that continued softness could cap any recovery in confidence. She also flagged the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index now below average.
AUD/USD Daily Report
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6496; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6536; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it's still staying below 0.6536 resistance. More consolidations could be seen, but even in case of another dip, further rise is in favor favor as long as 0.6406 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6406 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6536 at 0.6298.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.
Elliott Wave Perspective: S&P 500 (SPX) Set to Finish Wave 3
Since reaching its low on April 7, 2025, the S&P 500 (SPX) has embarked on an impulsive rally. From that bottom, the index progressed through distinct waves, as defined by Elliott Wave theory. Wave 1 concluded at 5246.57, followed by a corrective pullback in wave 2, which found support at 4910.42. Currently, wave 3 is underway, unfolding as a strong impulse with subdivisions in a lesser degree.
From the wave 2 low, the rally continued with wave ((i)) peaking at 5481.34. A brief retracement in wave ((ii)) then followed which ended at 5101.63. The index then surged higher in wave ((iii)), reaching 5968.61. A subsequent pullback in wave ((iv)) found support at 5767.41, setting the stage for further gains. The index should push to a few more highs to complete wave ((v)) of 3. This will mark the culmination of this upward phase.
Looking ahead, once wave 3 concludes, a corrective wave 4 should follow, retracing part of the rally from the April 7, 2025 low. This correction could unfold in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern before the index resumes its upward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 5765.74 holds, the S&P 500 is poised to achieve additional highs to finalize wave ((v)) of 3. However, if this critical support at 5765.74 is breached, it would signal the end of wave 3, prompting a larger wave 4 pullback, potentially in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure.
S&P 500 (SPX) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart
SPX Elliott Wave Technical Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXbLsoD2zbg
BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms gradual tightening path, cites limited room for rate cuts
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue, though cautiously, once the central bank gains "more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level".
Ueda explained that BoJ still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains both stable and sustained.
However, Ueda also flagged a significant limitation in policy space should economic conditions deteriorate. With the short-term policy rate still only at 0.5%, the BoJ has "limited room" to cut rates in response to any sharp downturn in growth.
Australia’s NAB business confidence lifts to 2, but employment conditions erode
Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement in confidence was not matched by underlying business conditions, which weakened further. Business Conditions index slipped from 2 to 0, with trading conditions dipping slightly from 6 to 5, profitability remaining in the red at -4, and employment conditions dropping from 4 to 0 — all pointing to a stagnating environment.
On the inflation front, cost indicators presented a mixed picture. Labor cost growth remained firm at a quarterly equivalent pace of 1.7%. Purchase cost and final product price growth eased to 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Retail price growth held steady at 1.2%, suggesting persistent margin pressures.
NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld emphasized that business conditions are still weak and warned that continued softness could cap any recovery in confidence. She also flagged the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index now below average.
Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment edges higher as rate cuts clash with growth worries
Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rose a modest 0.5% mom in June to 92.6, reflecting a population still mired in what Westpac called a “holding pattern of cautious pessimism.”
The data reveal "two clear opposing forces" shaping household attitudes: easing inflation and RBA’s May rate cut have improved perceptions around major purchases. On the other hand, sluggish domestic growth and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on expectations.
Looking ahead, attention turns to the RBA’s next meeting on July 7–8. With economic data remaining mixed and labor market tightness still evident, Westpac expects the central bank to proceed with caution and keep the cash rate on hold. Nonetheless, a fresh round of economic projections in August could pave the way for another 25 basis point cut, as RBA recalibrates its stance amid still-sluggish growth.
WTI Crude Oil Recovers Lost Ground, More Gains Possible?
Key Highlights
- WTI Crude Oil prices started a decent increase above the $62.50 level.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $64.20 on the 4-hour chart.
- Gold prices are facing hurdles near the $3,400 resistance.
- EUR/USD is consolidating and might aim for a move above the 1.1440 resistance zone.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil price found support at $61.50 and recovered against the US Dollar. There was a move above the $62.00 and $62.50 resistance levels.
Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled above the $63.20 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
The bulls even pushed the price above $65.00 before the bears appeared. The current price action suggests that the price might rise further above the $65.50 resistance. The first key resistance sits near the $66.20 level.
The main hurdle is now near the $68.00 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $70.00 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $72.00 resistance zone in the near term.
On the downside, the first major support sits near the $64.20 zone. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $64.20 on the same chart.
A daily close below $64.20 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $62.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). Any more losses might send oil prices toward $60.00 in the coming days.
Looking at Gold, there was a fresh increase above $3,350, but the bears might remain active near the $3,400 level.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- UK Claimant Count Change for May 2025 – Forecast 9.5K, versus 5.2K previous.
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate for April 2025 (3M) – Forecast 4.6%, versus 4.5% previous.
CADJPY Wave Analysis
CADJPY: ⬇️ Sell
- CADJPY reversed from resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 104.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 106.00 (which has been reversing the price from March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short-term correction 2.
Given the strength of the resistance level 106.00 and the daily downtrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 104.00.
Bitcoin Wave Analysis
Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy
- Bitcoin broke daily down channel
- Likely to rise to resistance level 110,000.00
Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from May (which encloses the previous ABC correction 2 from the end of May).
The breakout of this down channel accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of April.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 110,000.00 (which reversed the price in January and May) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 115000.00.
