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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 108.69 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 108.52, with the USD trading 0.16% lower against the JPY from Friday's close.

Overnight data showed that Japan's retail trade rose 0.5% on an annual basis in June, following an advance of 1.2% in the prior month. Meanwhile, the nation's large retailer's sales declined 0.5% on a monthly basis in June, compared to a similar fall in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.35, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.18. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.00.

Looking forward, traders would await the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision followed by Japan's jobless rate and industrial production for June, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.31% against the CHF and closed at 0.9939 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9926, with the USD trading 0.13% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9902, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9878. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9970.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.06% against the CAD and closed at 1.3169 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3166, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3150, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3133. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3191, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3215.

Amid lack of economic releases in Canada today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.60% against the USD and closed at 0.6909 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 1.1% or $65.0/MT to $5945.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.0% or $17.5/MT to $1778.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.6909, with the AUD trading flat against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.6892, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6874. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6938, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6966.

Going forward, investors would closely monitor Australia’s building approvals for June, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.25% against the USD and closed at USD1431.50 per ounce on Friday, amid hopes of an interest rate cut by the US central bank.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1435.00, with gold trading 0.24% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1427.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1420.73. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1439.87, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1444.73.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.33% against the USD and closed at USD16.39 per ounce on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.42, with silver trading 0.18% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.33, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.53, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.64.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.21% against the USD and closed at USD56.17 per barrel on Friday, after fresh figures from Baker Hughes disclosed that the number of active oil rigs fell by 3 to 776 in the week ended 26 July 2019.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 56.07, with oil trading 0.18% lower against the USD from Friday’s close, amid signs of “constructive” talks on Iran’s nuclear deal.

The pair is expected to find support at 55.64, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 55.22. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 56.53, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 57.00.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

The Confederation of British Industry warned in a report, published on Sunday, that neither UK nor EU are ready for no deal Brexit, as contingency planning study finds. The report criticized that while US has made many proposals "many of its plans delay negative impacts but do not remove them". EU has "taken fewer steps to reduce the damage of no deal". And, "very few joint actions to mitigate no deal have taken place, creating a high number of areas where continued UK-EU negotiations are inevitable". Business efforts have been "hampered by unclear advice, tough timelines, cost and complexity".

Josh Hardie, Deputy-Director General, said: ". Both sides are underprepared, so it's in all our interests. It cannot be beyond the wit of the continent's greatest negotiators to find a way through and agree a deal... It's not just about queues at ports; the invisible impact of severing services trade overnight would harm firms across the country... Preparing for no deal is devilishly difficult. But it is right to prepare."

Full report here.

US-China trade negotiations are set to resume in Shanghai on Tuesday but expectations are rather low. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will meet China's team again for a two day meeting. Trump indicated on Friday that China may want to drag on till after 2020 election in the US. He told reported at that White House China would probably said “let’s wait and see if one of these people who gives the United States away, let’s see if one of them could get elected.”

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said on Friday he "wouldn't expect any grand deal" at this week's meeting. Instead, the team would just try to "reset the stage". Though, he added, "we strongly expect the Chinese to follow through (on) goodwill and just helping the trade balance with large-scale purchases of US agriculture products and services.”

Separately, China's state media CCTV said on Sunday, citing the National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce, that the country has already made enquiries to US suppliers for soybeans, cotton, pork, sorghum and other agricultural products since July 19. CCTV reported “as long as the American agricultural products are reasonably priced and of good quality, it is expected that there will be new purchase.” though, it also urged that US should  “take concrete measures to implement its relevant commitments and create favorable conditions for bilateral economic and trade cooperation”.

A slight risk-off bias

It was a slow start to the week with risk appetite taking a slight downturn across the board. Equity markets edged lower after Friday's gains, with the US indices sliding between 0.06% and 0.12%. The HongKong33 under-performed following more anti-government demonstrations over the weekend, which had a knock-on effect for China shares.

Currency markets also displayed a risk-off bias, with the Australian dollar sliding 0.04% versus the US dollar and 0.14% against the Japanese yen. The yen was broadly better bid on safe haven buying, rising 0.15% versus the greenback and 0.12% versus the Euro.

AUD/JPY has fallen to the lowest level in 4-1/2 weeks and is nearing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July rally at 74.829.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Trade talks resume this week

US representatives are on their way to Shanghai for two-day face-to-face trade meetings almost three months after negotiations disintegrated into acrimonious disarray. There hasn't been much fanfare from either side ahead of the talks, and China's state media noted this morning that it does not expect any major breakthrough with the US this week, and reiterated an earlier opinion that China could wait until the US elections in 2020 are over before coming to an agreement.

USD/CNH has been confined to a broad 6.85-6.90 range since the second half of June and is currently at 6.8890, hovering below the 55-day moving average at 6.9018, which has capped prices on a closing basis since July 9.

USD/CNH Daily Chart

China to hold briefing on Hong Kong

China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, which reports to Beijing, has scheduled a news conference today in the capital. The South China Morning Post noted that this would be the first such event since the British handed over rule of Hong Kong in 1997, and comes amid escalating unrest and demonstrations in the former colony.

The HongKong33 index has fallen for a third consecutive session, dropping 1.13% today to as low as 27,993, the weakest since June 19, and is testing the 55-day moving average support at 27,983.

HongKong33 Daily Chart

UK housing stats on tap

There's not much to excite on the data front today, with UK housing data for June the main attraction. House prices as measured by the Nationwide index are due, and rose 0.5% m/m in May. Mortgage approvals are expected to increase to 65,990 for the month from 65,409 for May.

For the US session, the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for July is the only item on tap and it's expected to improve to -5.1 from -12.1 in June. However, that would be the third consecutive month it has been in negative territory.