Sample Category Title
USD/CHF Bullish Bias Above 0.9865
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9865
Our preference Long positions above 0.9865 with targets at 0.9895 & 0.9910 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.9865 look for further downside with 0.9855 & 0.9835 as targets.
Comment A support base at 0.9865 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
S&P 500 Turning Down
Pivot (invalidation): 3015.00
Our preference Short positions below 3015.00 with targets at 2988.00 & 2973.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 3015.00 look for further upside with 3023.00 & 3032.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3043; (P) 1.3068; (R1) 1.3112; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected with 1.3143 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.
DAX The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 12370.00
Our preference Long positions above 12370.00 with targets at 12480.00 & 12540.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 12370.00 look for further downside with 12300.00 & 12260.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Crude Oil Expect 56.45
Pivot (invalidation): 58.20
Our preference Short positions below 58.20 with targets at 57.10 & 56.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 58.20 look for further upside with 58.90 & 59.25 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6999; (P) 0.7022; (R1) 0.7033; More...
AUD/USD retreats ahead of 0.7047 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor with 0.6983 minor support intact. Break of 0.7047 will resume the rebound from 0.6831 for 61.8% retracement of 0.7295 to 0.6831 at 0.7118. Sustained trading above will pave the way to 0.7205 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.6983 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6910 support instead.
In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
Silver Spot Look For 15.7500
Pivot (invalidation): 15.5000
Our preference Long positions above 15.5000 with targets at 15.6600 & 15.7500 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 15.5000 look for further downside with 15.3800 & 15.2900 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
Gold Spot Target 1396.00
Pivot (invalidation): 1410.00
Our preference Short positions below 1410.00 with targets at 1400.50 & 1396.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1410.00 look for further upside with 1416.00 & 1419.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.47; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 107.79 will resume the fall from 108.99 to retest 106.78 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 112.40. on the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 to 110.67 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.
EURGBP Unlocks 6-Month High, Looks Overbought
EURGBP skyrocketed in the preceding couple of days, challenging a new six-month high of 0.9046. The rebound on the 0.8490 drove the pair to an upside rally above the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) in the daily timeframe, confirming the bullish tendency.
However, looking at the technical indicators, they seem overbought, suggesting a possible downside pullback. The MACD oscillator is weakening a bit slightly below the trigger line in the positive area, while the RSI is flattening after it touched the 70 level.
In case of further advances the price could attempt to overcome the multi-month high and retest the 0.9060 resistance, which if successfully broken the door would open for the 15-month peak of 0.9110 reached on January 3. Should investors continue to buy with strong momentum the pair above that peak, resistance could then run towards the 0.9300 handle.
A reversal to the downside, could find immediate support at the 20-day SMA currently at 0.8965. Even lower, the 0.8920 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.8490 to 0.9046, near 0.8915, which coincides with the 40-SMA, could also come into view. If the latter fails to halt bearish movements, the next target could be the 38.2% Fibo near 0.8830.
To sum up, the market is expected to hold bullish in short-term, but if the technical indicators prove true for a weaker tendency, the price could post a bearish correction move
