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Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.89; (P) 122.11; (R1) 122.24; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. We're still favoring the case that consolidation from 120.78 has completed with three waves to 123.35. Below 121.31 will target retest of 120.78 first. Break will resume fall from 127.50 to 118.62 low. In case of another rise as consolidation from 120.78 extends, upside should be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

USDJPY extended yesterday's sell-off below the 108.00 psychological mark today and the mid-level of the Bollinger Band (20-day simple moving average) as well as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from 112.40 to 106.77. The pullback on the seven-week high of 109.00 shifted the marginally bullish bias to neutral in the short-term.

Looking at the momentum indicators, the RSI is falling below the 50 level, while the stochastic oscillator has already completed a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the overbought zone, suggesting the end of the bullish phase.

If prices continue to head lower, support should come from the lower Bollinger band, which overlaps with the 107.05 barrier. A drop below it would open the door for the five-month low of 106.77 before attention turns to the 105.65 area.

However, should an upside reversal take form in the congestion area, immediate resistance will likely come from the 40-SMA, around 108.50. A break above this line would hit the upper boundary of the channel near the 38.2% Fibo of 108.90 and the 109.00 round number. More advances could also reach the 50.0% Fibo of 109.60, switching the short-term outlook back to bullish.

To summarize, USDJPY is currently looking neutral in the short-term timeframe, while in the medium-term the picture is seen bearish unless the price returns to the 109.00 key level.

The precious metal posted gains on Wednesday after the Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed was ready to cut rates. He cited the economic uncertainty but said that the federal deficit could potentially push interest rates higher.

Will XAUUSD Maintain the Gains?

The gains came after the precious metal was hovering close to the 1384 handle, following the break of the rising trend line. But the comments from the Fed Chair saw the precious metal reversing direction. After breaking past the resistance level of 1404, gold prices could be on track for further gains. The next upside target is seen at the previous highs at 1432.

Crude oil prices closed above $60 a barrel on Wednesday. The gains came after the Energy Information Administration released the weekly inventory report. Data showed that US crude oil stockpiles fell 10 million barrels per day. The drawdown was larger than expected. It also reflected the API’s inventory report released earlier in the week. Meanwhile, a developing weather disturbance near the Gulf of Mexico is also seen adding to the price gains.

Can Crude Oil Rise Further?

The current gains in oil prices came after price had initially declined. Following a period of consolidation near the support area of 57.50, oil prices have reversed direction. The strong gains off the 50.57 support level have led to oil testing the upper end of the range. A breakout above the $61.00 handle will further confirm the upside bias in oil.

The common currency posted strong gains on Wednesday as the USD fell. On the economic front, French industrial production jumped 2.1% in May, marking the biggest increase since May 2016. Similar gains were seen in Italy’s industrial production figures as well, which grew 0.9% on the month. The European Commission released its economic forecasts where it lowered eurozone growth to 1.2% for 2019.

Will the EURUSD Maintain the Bullish Gains?

The currency pair reversed just a few pips off the 1.1188 level of support. The reversal pushed prices higher as the EURUSD closed above 1.1250. If the bullish momentum is maintained, we could expect the euro to rise toward 1.1400 level of resistance. However, in near term, dips to 1.1250 will see support being formed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8966; (P) 0.8984; (R1) 0.9012; More...

With 0.8954 minor support intact, further rise is til in favor in EUR/GBP to 0.9101 key resistance. We'd continue to be cautious on topping there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 0.8954 support will indicate short term topping. In this case, deeper pull back could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.8855) first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8527). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion, if upside is rejected by 0.9101.

Pivot (invalidation): 59.75

Our preference Long positions above 59.75 with targets at 61.10 & 61.95 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 59.75 look for further downside with 59.05 & 58.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6135; (P) 1.6183; (R1) 1.6212; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6259 will indicate that corrective pull back from 1.6448 has completed. And further rise should be seen back to retest 1.6448 high. On the downside, break of 1.6025 will extend the fall from 1.6448 to 1.5683 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.1500

Our preference Long positions above 15.1500 with targets at 15.4200 & 15.5000 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 15.1500 look for further downside with 15.0700 & 15.0200 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Pivot (invalidation): 1416.00

Our preference Long positions above 1416.00 with targets at 1428.00 & 1437.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1416.00 look for further downside with 1410.00 & 1403.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.