Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 108.20

Our preference Short positions below 108.20 with targets at 107.65 & 107.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 108.20 look for further upside with 108.35 & 108.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2495

Our preference Long positions above 1.2495 with targets at 1.2540 & 1.2560 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.2495 look for further downside with 1.2480 & 1.2460 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2459; (P) 1.2490; (R1) 1.2536; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2439 is extending. Stronger recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited well below 1.2783 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2439 would resume the decline from 1.3381 to retest 1.2391 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1250

Our preference Long positions above 1.1250 with targets at 1.1280 & 1.1300 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1250 look for further downside with 1.1235 & 1.1220 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9875; (P) 0.9909; (R1) 0.9929; More...

Focus is back on 0.9842 minor support with current decline. Break will indicate that rebound from 0.9695 has completed at 0.9951. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9695 low. On the upside, above 0.9951 will target 1.0014. But upside could be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.0237 to 0.9695 at 1.0030.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we'd pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -3.78 mmb to 1303.57 mmb in the week ended July 4. Crude oil inventory slumped -9.5 mmb to 458.99 mmb (consensus: -3.08 mmb). Inventories rose in 4 out of 5 PADDs. Stockpile in PADD3 (Gulf Coast) alone plunged -6.76 mmb during the week. Cushing stock slipped -0.31 mmb to 52.18 mmb. Utilization rate climbed +0.5 percentage point higher to 94.7% while crude production added +0.1M bpd to 12.3M bpd for the week. Crude oil imports dropped -0.28M bpd to 7.3M bpd in the week.

Concerning refined oil product inventories, gasoline inventory declined -1.46 mmb to 229.19 mmb as demand gained +2.76% to 9.75M bpd. The market had anticipated a -1.3 mmb decrease in stockpile. Production added +4.72% to 10.42 bpd while imports jumped +62.5% to 0.87M bpd during the week. Distillate inventory rose +3.73 mmb to 130.52 mmb. Demand fell -7.24% to 3.83M bpd. The market had anticipated a +0.74 mmb increase in inventory. Production added +0.41% to 5.36M bpd while imports soared +84.69% to 0.18M bpd during the week.

Released after market close on Thursday, the industry- sponsored API estimated that crude oil inventory slumped -8.13 mmb during the week. For refined oil products, gasoline stockpile fell -0.26 mmb while distillate gained +3.69.

The British pound has made a recovery above the 1.2500 level against the greenback, following FED Chair Powell’s dovish testimony yesterday. Bulls need to hold price above the 1.2530 level in order to advance the GBPUSD pair back towards the 1.2580 resistance level. Failure around the 1.2530 level may prompt another round of heavy technical selling back towards the 1.2480 price zone.

The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2530 level, key support is found at the 1.2505 and 1.2480 levels.

The GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2530 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2580 and 1.2610 levels.

Bitcoin has suffered a heavy technical rejection from the $13,000 level, as bulls failed for the second day to maintain price above this crucial area. The bearish head and shoulders pattern on the four-hour time frame is now complete, with the $11,800 level back in focus. The overall negative sentiment in the entire cryptocurrency market is also weighing on the BTCUSD pair.

The BTCUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the $12,400 level, key resistance is located at the $13,000 and $13,300 levels.

If the BTCUSD pair trades under the $12,400 level, sellers may test towards the $10,500 and $9,600 support levels.

The euro is continuing to move higher against the US dollar in early Thursday trade, following the dovish FOMC meeting minutes and testimony from Jerome Powell. The EURUSD pair has a bullish intraday bias while trading above the 1.1248 level and may target the 1.1310 level. Technically, a bullish higher-low has also been created on the charts, further encouraging EURUSD buyers.

The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.1248 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1280 and 1.1310 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.1248 level, key support is found at the 1.1220 and 1.1205 levels.

Wall Street ended the day at an all-time high as Jerome Powell testified to Congress. In his testimony, the Chair said that the Fed was fully prepared to slash interest rates based on mounting risks to the US economic outlook. Despite excellent jobs numbers released on Friday, Powell said that uncertainties about the outlook have increased in previous months. Analysts and investors believe that the Fed will slash interest rates in the upcoming meeting by 25 basis points. In response to the testimony, the S&P 500 index crossed the psychologically-important level of $3,000 for the first time in history. In his testimony, Powell said:

Economic momentum appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies, and that weakness could affect the US economy. Moreover, a number of government policy issues have yet to be resolved, including trade developments, the federal debt ceiling, and Brexit. And there is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate.

The Canadian dollar was relatively unchanged after the BOC delivered its interest rates decision. The bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting. The bank officials also lowered the global growth forecast for the year to 3% from the previous estimate of 3.2% as a result of the ongoing trade tensions. It predicted that the Canadian economy will grow by 1.3% this year, which was slightly higher than their previous estimate of 1.2%. It also raised its forecast for a Q2 growth to 2.3%, up from the previous projection of 1.3%. In the monetary policy statement, the bank said that it was in no hurry to hike or lower interest rates.

Today, investors will receive the CPI data from Germany, France, Sweden, Ireland and the United States. In the US, the core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.0% while the headline CPI is expected to decline slightly to 1.6%. Investors will also receive jobless claims for the US. Agricultural traders will receive the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the Department of Agriculture. Furthermore, the ECB will publish the account of the monetary policy meeting held in June.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose sharply after Jerome Powell laid ground work for an upcoming rate cut. The pair is now trading at 1.1275, which is the highest level since July 5. It is higher than the week’s low of 1.1192. On the hourly chart below, the price is above the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. It is also along the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The RSI has moved above the overbought level of 70 while the momentum indicator remains above the 100 level. It’s likely that the pair will continue moving higher to test the 50% Fibonacci level and then resume the downward trend because the rate cut was already priced in.

XBR/USD

The XBR/USD pair rose sharply after the US released its inventory data. Over the past week, inventories decreased by more than 9 million barrels. On the four-hour chart below, the pair’s price is the highest level it has been since June 3. The price is along the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The pair will likely make a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $65 and then resume the upward trend.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair moved lower in the Asian session and is currently trading at 1.3050. On the four-hour chart, the pair appears to be forming a double bottom pattern. The current price is below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The accumulation/distribution indicator has continued to move lower while the RSI indicator too is declining. The pair could resume the upward trend if it indeed forms a double bottom pattern when it retests the 1.3038 low.