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Wednesday July 3: Five things the markets are talking about

With volumes low and markets skittish, global sovereign bonds have managed to extend their month’s gains ahead of July 4 celebrations stateside tomorrow on the back of weaker economic data. Equities have traded mixed in the overnight session as U.S ten-year Treasury note yields fall to their lowest yields in three-years on fading hopes over the Sino-U.S trade deal and the possibility of fresh tariff hostilities with Europe.

Providing strength to the markets ‘dovish’ tone is the nomination of Christine Lagarde to take the reins of the ECB later this year with many believing that she is willing to provide further market stimulus.

Expect today to be a very quiet day stateside with U.S private hiring, factory orders and the services sector being delivered before an early close. The highlight of this week will be this Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report.

Elsewhere, oil has come off its lows after an industry report showed a contraction in U.S crude stockpiles last week and gold rallied to print a one-week high helped by a ‘subdued’ dollar as renewed concerns over global trade encourages safe-haven demand.

On tap: U.S markets will close early today and all day tomorrow. U.S and Canadian job reports are due Friday.

1. Stocks mixed results.

In Japan, stocks fell overnight, pressured by a stronger yen (¥107.70) and profit taking amongst exporter stocks ahead of July 4th celebrations and jobs data. The Nikkei share average ended -0.5% lower while the broader Topix dropped -0.7%.

Down-under, Aussie stocks ended higher as mining stocks continue to benefit from stronger commodity prices, while a surge in real estate stocks have also lent support. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose +0.5%. In South Korea, the Kospi stock index fell -1.23% as investors worried over grim growth outlooks.

Note: South Korea cut 2019 economic growth target to a seven-year low as the prolonged U.S-China tariff war hit global demand for their manufactured goods.

In China and Hong Kong, stocks dropped as hopes for progress in Sino-U.S trade negotiations weakened. The Shanghai Composite index was down -0.9%, while blue-chip CSI300 index was down -1.1%. At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down -0.07%.

In Europe, regional bourses are trading higher and are happy to continue with their positive momentum on the back of record low yields across the region.

U.S stocks are set to open higher (+0.82%).

Indices: Stoxx600 +0.72% at 392,08, FTSE +0.59% at 7.603,75, DAX +0.76% at 12.622,07, CAC-40 +0.61% at 5.610,66, IBEX-35 +0.85% at 9.360,01, FTSE MIB +1.32% at 21.674,50, SMI +0.55% at 10.076,50, S&P 500 Futures +0.82%

2. Oil steady on U.S stockpile drop

Oil prices are steady after yesterday’s steep fall, supported by extended output cuts by OPEC+ and this despite concerns that a slowing global economy could hurt demand. Global prices are also supported by U.S data showing a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories.

Brent crude futures for September delivery are trading up +12c, or +0.2%, at +$62.52 a barrel, while U.S crude futures for August are up +16c, or +0.3%, at +$56.41 a barrel.

Note: Both benchmarks fell more than -4% yesterday on investor worries about a slowing global economy.

OPEC+ agreed Tuesday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as members overcame differences to try to prop up prices.

API data yesterday showed that that U.S crude inventories fell by -5M barrels last week, more than the expected decrease of -3M barrels. Expect investors to take their cues from today’s API report at 10:30 am.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have climbed over +1% in the overnight session to hit a one-week high, helped by a subdued ‘big’ dollar on renewed concerns over global trade which have encouraged safe-haven demand. Spot gold has rallied +1.1% at +$1,433.50 per ounce, while U.S gold futures are up +2.1% at +$1,437.7 an ounce.

3. German Bund yields hit record low after ECB nomination

German 10-year government Bund yields slid to a record low of -0.40% earlier this morning on expectations that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) likely new president, Christine Lagarde, will pursue more easy-money policies.

The market is anticipating that Lagarde will oversee further quantitative easing, following her statement after the G-20 meeting that “the global economy has hit a rough patch, with trade as the primary risk.”

Other bond yields are also under pressure across Europe as the market bets on more interest-rate cuts and bond buying as the region is expected to suffer low growth and low inflation rates. Italy’s 10-year bond yields have fallen to +1.741%.

Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has declined -3 bps to +1.95%, the lowest in more than two years, while in the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has dipped -2 bps to +0.699%, the lowest in almost three-years.

Earlier this morning, Sweden Riksbank left interest rates unchanged and reiterated its forward guidance that it expected to raise rates at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

4. Dollar in demand ahead of break

EUR/USD (€1.1270) remains on “soft” footing as ECB would likely loosen monetary policy in the coming months after announcements that IMF’s Lagarde was set to succeed Mario Draghi as the ECB’s President. Dealers noted that Lagarde was likely seen to continue the ECB’s easy-money policy stance.

GBP/USD (£1.2574) is softer by -0.2% in the aftermath of Bank of England’s (BoE) Governor Carney cautious comments on growth yesterday. PMI Services data (see below) for last month also missed expectations and barely stayed in expansion territory. Markets are currently pricing in a BoE rate cut by August 2020.

EUR/SEK (€10.5158) is lower after Sweden’s Riksbank maintained its forward guidance that the next rate move would be higher despite concerns of the global economy. The policy statement also reiterated that inflation was close to +2% target and if conditions changed then monetary policy would be adjusted.

5. UK economy slows as Brexit uncertainty stalls services

Data this morning showed that the U.K economy slowed sharply in the three-months through June as businesses remained uncertain about when and how the country will leave the EU.

The U.K Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in June from 51.0 in May, pointing to stagnation.

Note: Surveys for manufacturing and construction released earlier this week signaled declines in activity in both sectors during June.

IHS Markit said the readings across all sectors point to a slight contraction in the economy. “The latest downturn has followed a gradual deterioration in demand over the past year as Brexit-related uncertainty has increasingly exacerbated the impact of a broader global economic slowdown,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Notes/Observations

• IMF’s Lagarde likely seen to continue the ECB’s easy-money policy stance under Draghi; European bond yields hit fresh record lows
• Sweden Riksbank left interest rates unchanged and reiterated its forward guidance that it expected to raise rates at the end of this year or the beginning of next year
• Major European PMI services data (Beats: Euro Zone, Germany, Italy, Spain; Misses: France, UK)

Asia:

• Australia May Trade Balance: A$5.8B v A$5.3Be (record high surplus); supported by higher iron ore prices
• China Jun Caixin PMI Services missed expectations to hit a 4-month low (52.0 v 52.6e)
• South Korea Finance Ministry cuts 2019 GDP and CPI forecasts. Cut 2019 GDP growth forecast from 2.6-2.7% to 2.4-2.5% and cut 2019 CPI forecast from 1.6% to 0.9%
• BoJ official Funo reiterated stance that must maintain sufficiently low rates for prolonged period given prices, inflation expectations not heightening much; BOJ forward guidance left room for current low rates to be maintained beyond Spring 2020

Europe/Mideast:

• EU reached deal on key positions: Christine Lagarde nominated for ECB presidency; Belgium's Charles Michel proposed as EU Council president; Germany's Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed as EU Commission head
• EU's Juncker stated that Germany abstained in vote for EU top positions and added that Parliament approval of EU jobs 'won't be easy'
• Italy PM Conte stated that was glad to see woman as ECB President and that the new Commission would be very well balanced. Italy was guaranteed an economic portfolio in new Commission
• BOE Gov Carney saw Q2 economic growth 'considerably weaker and added that it was unsurprising that the market saw a lower bank rate. Escalation of US-China tension might take 1% off GDP

Americas:

• Trump announces Fed nominees. To nominate current Executive Vice President of Saint Loius Fed Christopher Waller to be member of Fed; Also intends to nominate economic advisor Judy Shelton to serve on Fed board
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro stated that continued to head in positive direction on China trade talks; US was talking to China on the phone already. Fed cutting interest rates and passage of USMCA would help the stock market hit 30K on the Dow

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.72% at 392,08, FTSE +0.59% at 7.603,75, DAX +0.76% at 12.622,07, CAC-40 +0.61% at 5.610,66, IBEX-35 +0.85% at 9.360,01, FTSE MIB +1.32% at 21.674,50, SMI +0.55% at 10.076,50, S&P 500 Futures +0.82%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

• European Indices trade higher across the board continuing the positive momentum on the back of continued record low yields across the European bond space. Asian Indices traded mostly lower, with US Index futures pointing to a higher open.
• On the corporate front UK Supermarket giant Sainsbury’s trades higher despite its Q1 update, and decline in sales; Estate agent Purplebricks gains after earnings and reports its to pull out of the US; JD Sports also rises following its trading update, while Nordex rising almost 10% after its Q2 sales numbers.
• Meanwhile PureCircle shares fall after guiding below forecasts, with Electrocomponents also declining following a trading update.
• In other news, Telford Homes rises 12% on a takeover bid from CBRE; Britvic rises after reports PM Candidate Boris Johnson will review ‘sin taxes’, while Fagron declines following a private placement by holders.
• Looking ahead notable earners include International Speedway in a shortened trading session in the US.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Telford Homes [TEF.UK] +12% (receives offer from CBRE), Sainsbury's [SBRY.UK] +2% (trading update), Stolt-Niesen [SNI.NO] -1.5% (earnings), Electrocomponents [ECM.UK] -2% (trading update), JD Sports Fashion [JD.UK] +3.5% (AGM statement)
• Consumer staples: Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] +1.5%, Britvic [BVIC.UK] +2%, Barr [BAG.UK] +0.5%, Fevertree Drinks [FEVR.UK] +2% (UK PM candidate Johnson pledges review of sugar and salt taxes)
• Energy: Nordex [NDX1.DE] +9% (order intake)
• Financials: Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] -1% (held talks with Citi and BNP)
• Industrials: Synthomer [7YC.DE] -1% (to acquire OMNOVA), Henkel [HEN.DE] +1.5% (analyst action)
• Technology: Avast [AVST.UK] +3%, Sophos Group [SOPH.UK] +7.5% (Broadcom-Symantec acquisition)

Speakers

• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Policy Statement reiterated forward guidance that next potential rate hikewas seen near year-end or in early 2020. Inflationwais close to 2% target; economics outlook and inflation prospects remained good . If conditions for inflation changed then monetary policy would be adjusted
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves post rate decision press conference stated that developments were in-line with forecasts; reiterated forward guidance that next potential rate hike seen near year-end or in early 2020
• ECB's Rehn (Finland) said to stress that OMT bond buying is an important instrument
• ECB Nowotny (Austria): Monetary easing had strengthened financial stability
• Italy said to not commit to a 2020 budget deficit target in the EU. Later reports circulated that Italy Govt decree said to contain clause to curb the 2020 budget deficit
• EU official said to see the first structural improvement in Italy's public finances as a result of the 2019 measures
• Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina stated that it planned to cut rates in small steps and would complete the easing cycle by mid-2020
• China said to consider purchasing some US agricultural products as a goodwill gesture amid the resumption of trade talks. Soybeans, corn, pork are being considered but volumes will be smaller than during the last trade truce

Currencies/ Fixed Income

• EUR/USD remains on soft footing as ECB would likely loosen monetary policy in the coming months after announcements that IMF’s Lagarde was set to succeed Mario Draghi as the ECB's President. Dealers noted that Lagarde was likely seen to continue the ECB’s easy-money policy stance. Pair staying below the 1.13 level as European bond yield hit fresh record lows
• GBP/USD was softer by 0.2% in the aftermath of BOE Gov Carney cautious comments on growth yesterday. PMI Services data for Jun also missed expectations and barely stayed in expansion territory. Markets currently fully pricing in a BOE rate cut by August 2020 .
• EUR/SEK was lower after Sweden’s Riksbank maintained its forward guidance that the next rate move would be higher despite concerns of the global economy. Cross tested below the 10.49 as a result of the rate decision and rate path outlook.

Economic Data

• (IN) India Jun PMI Services: 49.6 v 50.2 prior (1st contraction in 13 months); PMI Composite: 50.8 v 51.7 prior
• (RU) Russia Jun PMI Services: 49.7 v 52.0 prior (1st contraction in 41 months); PMI Composite: 49.2 v 51.5 prior
• (SE) Sweden Jun PMI Services: 49.9v 52.8 prior (1st contraction since July 2013); PMI Composite: 50.5 v 52.9 prior
• (TR) Turkey Jun CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 15.7% v 16.1%e (3rd month that inflation decelerated); CPI Core Index Y/Y: 14.9% v 14.7%e
• (TR) Turkey Jun PPI M/M: 0.1% v 2.7% prior; Y/Y: 25.0% v 28.7% prior
• (ZA) South Africa Jun PMI (whole economy): 49.7 v 49.3 prior (2nd straight contraction)
• (ES) Spain Jun Services PMI: 53.6 v 52.8e; Composite PMI: 52.1 v 51.7e
• (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left the Repo Rate unchanged at -0.25% (as expected) and maintains its forward guidance on next possible hile
• (IT) Italy Jun Services PMI: 50.5 v 50.0e (5th straight month above expansion level); Composite PMI: 50.1 v 49.5e
• (FR) France Jun Final Services PMI: 52.9 v 53.1e (confirmed 3rd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.7 v 52.9e
• (DE) Germany Jun Final Services PMI: 55.8 v 55.6e(confirmed 72nd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.6 v 52.6e
• (EU) Euro Zone Jun Services PMI: 53.6 v 53.4e (confirmed 72nd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.2 v 52.1e
• (BR) Brazil Jun FIPE CPI (Sao Paulo): 0.2% v 0.0% prior
• (UK) Jun Services PMI: 50.2 v 51.0e (3rd straight expansion); Composite PMI: 49.7 v 51.0e
• (UK) Jun Official Reserves Changes: $3.7B v $2.3B prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.04B in 2025 and 2029 DGB Bonds
• (IN) India sold total INRB vs. INR160B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills

Looking Ahead

• (UR) Ukraine Jun Official Reserve Assets: No est v $19.4B prior
• (IL) Israel Jun Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $118.1B prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Jun SACCI Business Confidence: No est v 93.0 prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays)
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in new 0% Oct 2024 BOBL
• 05:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 26-week bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.41% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.56x prior (Jun 5th 2019)
• 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.50%
• 06:00 (UK) BOE’s Cunliffe at Conference in Lisbon
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (RU) Russia OFZ bonds auction
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 28th: No est v 1.3% prior
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 101.9K prior ‘
• 07:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson participates in Seminar
• 07:30 (US) Jun Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v 85.9% prior
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil May PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.8% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:15 (US) Jun ADP Employment Change: +140Ke v +27K prior
• 08:15 (UK) BOE's Broadbent speaks in London.
• 08:30 (US) May Trade Balance: -$54.0Be v -$50.8B prior
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 223Ke v 227K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.68Me v 1.688M prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada May Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): -1.7Be v -1.0B prior
• 09:00 (BR) Brazil Jun PMI Services: No est v 47.8 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 48.4 prior
• 09:00 (SG) Singapore Jun Purchasing Managers Index: No est v 49.9 prior; Electronics Sector Index: No est v 49.4 prior
• 09:00 (CL) Chile May Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
• 09:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden in Visby
• 09:45 (US) Jun Final Markit Services PMI: 50.7e v 50.7 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 50.6 prelim
• 10:00 (US) May Factory Orders: -0.6%e v -0.8% prior; Factory Orders(ex-transportation): No est v 0.3% prior
• 10:00 (US) May Final Durable Goods Orders: -1.3%e v -1.3% prelim; Durables Ex Transportation: No est v 0.3% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.4% prelim; Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.7% prelim
• 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 56.0e v 56.9 prior
• 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Glapinski to hold post rate decision press conference
• 10:30 (FR) ECB's Villeroy (France) in Paris
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia May Exports: $3.9Be v $3.9B prior
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-Year Bonds

The Australian dollar jumped above 0.70 barrier in mid-European trading on Wednesday, after quiet trading in Asia / early Europe.

The pair extends recovery from the previous day, as Monday’s strong fall and Tuesday’s action were repeatedly contained by daily cloud base, showing resilience on RBA’s rate cut and global growth concerns.

Rising bullish momentum on daily chart supports recovery, which was additionally underpinned by today’s formation of 10/55 DMA’s bull-cross.

Key barriers at 0.7032/35 (100DMA / daily cloud top) are back in focus, with sustained break here needed to signal continuation of recovery leg from 0.6831 (18 June low).

Repeated failure to break higher would keep near-term price action moving within thick daily cloud and without clear direction.

Res: 0.7022, 0.7035, 0.7048, 0.7068
Sup: 0.7000, 0.6985, 0.6975, 0.6956

During Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded sideways between the support level—the weekly S3 at 1.1275 and the resistance level formed by the weekly S2 and monthly PP located circa 1.1310.

Note, that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55-hour moving average, currently located at 1.1302. If the given resistance hold, some downside potential could prevail in the market. In this case, the rate could re-test the lower boundary of the short-term descending channel located in the 1.1240/1.1260 range.

However, if the given support level holds, a reversal north could occur within the following trading hours, and the pair could re-test the given resistance. It is unlikely, the pair could exceed the 1.1340 mark due to the resistance formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the monthly S1

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to breach the short-term descending channel south. During today's morning, the rate declined to the 1.2560 mark.

It is expected, that some downside potential could continue to prevail in the market in the short term. In this case, the currency pair could decline to the support level formed by the monthly S1 at the 1.2545 mark.

On the other hand, the pair could trade sideways around the weekly S2 located at the 1.2594 mark.

It is unlikely, that the British Pound could exceed the 1.2660 level against the US Dollar, as the rate is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the weekly S1 and the monthly PP.

Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair dropped to the support level formed by the 200-hour moving average and the weekly PP at 107.63. During Wednesday's morning, the pair was testing the given support.

If the support level holds, it is expected, that the exchange rate could reverse north. However, note, that the rate has to surpass the monthly PP at 107.84.

It is unlikely, that the Japanese Yen could climb higher than the 108.01/108.14 range against the US Dollar due to the resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.

If the given support level and monthly PP hold, it is likely, that the pair could trade sideways within the following trading session.

On Tuesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate skyrocketed to the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel at the 1,435.00 mark. During today's morning, the rate reversed south.

From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that the price for gold could continue to decline. Note, that gold is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, currently located in the 1,400.09/1,406.96 range.

On the other hand, the exchange rate could reverse north from the psychological level at 1,425.00 and re-test the upper channel line. It is unlikely, that the price for gold could exceed the 1,439.58 mark due to the resistance of the Fibonacci 0.00% retracement.

Financial market trading is expected to be tempered by the end of the week as the U.S. stock market closes on Independence Day, incentivizing traders to favor safe haven assets amid BoE Governor Mark Carney speech on uncertainties relating to global growth, suggesting a more dovish BoE and a potential rate cut by December 2019. Further JPY appreciation is therefore very likely as investors appear to have digested the easing of geopolitical tensions while investors are anticipating a support for lower interest rates due to low inflation.

2Q Tankan sentiment of Japanese manufacturers dropped to 7 from 12 during January-March period (consensus: 9) while the outlook for 3Q is unchanged from current period, confirming a sustained downtrend since the peak at 25 in December 2017 and reflecting a continued slowdown in Chinese demand. Based on the recent release and when conducting its quarterly assessment and forecasts for growth and inflation, the BoJ is likely to change forward guidance at its 30 July 2019 monetary policy meeting. From current language stating ultra-low interest rates “for an extended period and at least until spring 2020”, the BoJ is likely to change to “beyond spring 2020” as BoJ is less likely to achieve price target so far. Under current circumstances, we consider that a 0.10 percentage point decrease in interest rates in 2019 as unlikely unless the yen continues to appreciate and the BoJ is unable to defend the symbolic 105 USD/JPY threshold.

Currently trading at 107.72, USD/JPY is heading along 107.50 short-term

EURJPY has been plunging over the last couple of days, recording a fresh almost two-week low near 121.33 earlier today.

The bearish cross within the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart is increasing speculation for more downside risks. The RSI is heading towards the oversold territory, while the MACD is strengthening its bearish momentum.

If the price continues the downfall from the six-week high of 123.34, it could meet support near the ascending line of the triangle formation around the 121.00 psychological mark, which coincides with the 120.95 barrier. Even lower the pair could challenge the five-month low of 120.77 and the 120.60 levels, shifting the slightly bullish structure to bearish in the very short-term.

A possible pullback may meet resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 126.80 to 120.77 near 122.20, while marginally higher the bulls could try to overcome the SMAs, hitting the 122.55 resistance level.

Looking at the bigger picture, EURJPY has been developing within an ascending triangle pattern over the last month and only a close above the significant area of 123.15 could change the long-term outlook to bullish.

Turkish lira rose to three-month high at 5.6065 against US dollar on Wednesday on better than expected Turkey's inflation data.

Inflation in June fell to the lowest in one year (15.72% y/y compared to 15.39 in June 2018) from 18.71 previous month.

USDTRY extended weakness from 2019 high at 6.2445 (9 May) and approaching key supports at 5.5922 (200DMA) and 5.5740 (Fibo 61.8% of 5.1595/6.2445 rally).

Rising bearish momentum supports scenario, however, oversold conditions warn of hesitation on approach to key levels.

Broken 100DMA (5.7162) should ideally cap consolidation before fresh push lower.

Sustained break below 5.5922/5.5740 pivots is required to signal continuation of larger downtrend from 6.2445.

On the other side, failure to break lower would generate initial buying signal, which would require confirmation on lift above 20 and 30 DMA's (5.7814 / 5.8309 respectively).

Res: 5.6627, 5.6993, 5.7162, 5.7433
Sup: 5.5922, 5.5740, 5.5000, 5.4709