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The common currency gained 0.67% on the day on Friday to close at a 3-month high. The gains in the euro were led by a factor of weaker USD and somewhat better than expected regional flash PMI’s. For the eurozone, the combined PMI reading was disappointing. Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0 while services PMI rose to 53.4. ECB President Draghi was heard informing EU officials about the weakening growth in the eurozone.

Can EURUSD Maintain the Gains?

With the common currency trading flat, for the most part, this year, the recent close above $1.1300 is critical. A continued momentum to the upside could see the euro rising to $1.1400 as the next level. However, there is scope for prices to pull back in the short term. Temporary support is seen near the 1.1339 level which could see price falling back to establish support more firmly. This will eventually signal a reversal that could keep EURUSD on track to test the $1.1400 handle eventually.

Pivot (invalidation): 57.05

Our preference Long positions above 57.05 with targets at 58.50 & 59.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 57.05 look for further downside with 56.60 & 56.10 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9733; (P) 0.9786; (R1) 0.9816; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current decline should target 0.9716 support first. Break will target 0.9587 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 0.9838 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 1.0014 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development confirms that up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed at 1.0237 already. With 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9836 taken out, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.9587 and below. We'd pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.2200

Our preference Long positions above 15.2200 with targets at 15.5500 & 15.6600 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 15.2200 look for further downside with 15.1200 & 15.0500 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Pivot (invalidation): 1393.00

Our preference Long positions above 1393.00 with targets at 1419.00 & 1430.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1393.00 look for further downside with 1382.50 & 1377.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.68; More...

A temporary low is in place at 107.04 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But upside should be limited by 108.80 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 107.04 will pave the way to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 108.80 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 110.67 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 2930.00

Our preference Long positions above 2930.00 with targets at 2973.00 & 2990.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2930.00 look for further downside with 2910.00 & 2897.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 12440.00

Our preference Short positions below 12440.00 with targets at 12300.00 & 12220.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 12440.00 look for further upside with 12540.00 & 12610.00 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 12440.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 12300.00 remains high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3180; (P) 1.3206; (R1) 1.3251; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.3151 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.3432 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.3151 will extend the fall from 1.3564 to target 1.3052/68 cluster support..

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.7930

Our preference Short positions below 5.7930 with targets at 5.7230 & 5.7000 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 5.7930 look for further upside with 5.8380 & 5.8850 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 5.7930 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 5.7230 remains high.