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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.48% against the USD and closed at 0.6920.

LME Copper prices rose 1.1% or $67.0/MT to $5962.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.8% or $31.5/MT to $1778.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.6930, with the AUD trading 0.14% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia's CBA manufacturing PMI advanced to a level of 51.7 in June, compared to a level of 51.0 in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's CBA services PMI climbed to a level of 53.3 in June, following a reading of 51.5 in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.6894, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6858. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6952, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6974.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 2.14% against the USD and closed at USD1391.9 per ounce, after the US Federal Reserve signalled rate cuts as early as next month to boost economic growth.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1410.40, with gold trading 1.33% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1389.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1367.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1423.53, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1436.67.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japan national CPI (all items) slowed to 0.7% yoy in May, down from 0.9% yoy and matched expectations. CPI core (all items, less fresh food) slowed to 0.8% yoy in May, down from 0.9% yoy, but beat expectation of 0.7% yoy. CPI core-core (all items, less fresh food and energy) slowed to 0.5% yoy, down form 0.6% yoy, matched expectations.

BoJ left monetary policies unchanged yesterday. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to ramp up stimulus "without hesitation" if the economy loses momentum. There are speculations that BoJ could act as early as in July, given that ECB and Fed have both turned more dovish this week. For the very least, BoJ could change its forward guidance and pledge to keep interest rates low longer.

Yen strengthens mildly today as lead by decline in USD/JPY. EUR/JPY is also a touch lower for 120.78 low. Break will resume larger decline from 127.50.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.98% against the USD and closed at USD15.44 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.50, with silver trading 0.36% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.28, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.77.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 5.64% against the USD and closed at USD57.31 per barrel, amid rising geopolitical tensions, after Iran shot down a US military drone.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 57.37, with oil trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 55.24, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 53.12. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 58.64, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 59.92.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold price rallied sharply and broke the $1,350 and $1,400 resistance levels. Similarly, crude oil price gained bullish momentum and broke the $55.00 resistance area.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a solid upward move after it broke the $1,380 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $1,395 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price traded above the $55.00 and $56.50 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $56.15 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a solid support base above $1,350 and recently rallied above $1,380 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum above $1,390 after the Fed indicated possibilities of a rate cut in the near future.

The recent upward move was strong since the price even broke the $1,400 resistance area and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It climbed towards the $1,415 level and a new monthly high was formed near $1,411 on FXOpen.

The price is currently correcting lower below $1,410, with an initial support near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $1,379 low to $1,411 high.

On the downside, there are many supports near the $1,400 and $1,395 levels. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $1,395 on the hourly chart of gold.

The trend line support coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $1,379 low to $1,411 high. Therefore, if the price corrects lower, the $1,395 support area is likely to act as a strong buy zone in the near term.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $1,410 level, above which the price could climb above the $1,415 level. The next key resistance for the bulls is near the $1,420 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

After forming a support base, crude oil price started a decent upward move above the $54.00 resistance against the US Dollar. The price broke the $55.00 resistance area to move into a positive zone and start an upward move.

As a result, there were gains above the $56.00 and $57.00 levels. The price even traded above the $57.50 level and settled nicely above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The recent swing high was formed at $57.74 and the price is currently consolidating gains. An initial support is near the $57.15 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $55.21 low to $57.74 high.

Moreover, there is also a rising channel forming with support near $57.15 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below $57.15 and $57.00, the price could correct lower towards the $56.50 support.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $55.21 low to $57.74 high is also near the $56.50 level to act as a decent support. Besides, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $56.15 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Therefore, if there is an extended downside correction, the price is likely to find a lot of buying interest near the $56.50 and $56.20 levels.

Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.5 in June, down from 49.8, and missed expectation of 50.0. Markit noted there was the fastest drop in new orders since June 2016. However, there was resilient output trend as manufacturers reduce backlogs of work to greatest extent since January 2013.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

"June survey data reveals a further loss of momentum across the manufacturing sector, as signalled by the headline PMI dropping to a three-month low. Softer demand in both domestic and international markets contributed to the sharpest fall in total new orders for three years. A soft patch for automotive demand and subdued client confidence in the wake of US-China trade frictions were often cited by survey respondents.

"Disappointing sales volumes also led to the largest accumulation of finished goods inventories for over six-and-a-half years. At the same time, backlogs of work were depleted to the greatest extent since January 2013, which will likely act as an additional drag on production volumes in the months ahead."

Full release here.

Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.1 in June, up from 51.0. CBA PMI Services rose to 53.3, up from 51.5. Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that output and new business both expanded at the steepest rates for seven months. Solid increase in outstanding workloads lead firms to raise their staffing levels for the second month in a row. Input costs jumped as sharpest pace since last November. But selling price inflation remained modest.

Commenting on the Commonwealth Bank Flash PMI data, CBA Senior Economist, Gareth Aird said: "An encouraging result, particularly for the services sector. The uncertainty generated by the federal election has been removed which appears to have had a positive impact on business activity. The economy has been in a soft patch, but there are some green shoots emerging. The combination of monetary policy stimulus, forthcoming tax rebates and strong employment growth has contributed to the sharpest lift in the index since late last year. While the overall level of the composite index signals modest growth, we are taking some comfort from the direction the index is heading. The growth in input costs points to some margin compression. But if firms can pass on some of those costs due to a lift in demand we may see a modest rise in consumer inflation over H2 2019 and into 2020."

Full release here.

Four-day rising streak halted

As the weekend approaches, some investors were seen scaling back risk-positive positions which saw equity markets posting mild retracements of the week’s gains. US indices slid between 0.18% and 0.31%, snapping a four-day rising streak in most cases. Other indices saw deeper corrections, with both the Japan225 index and the China50 CFD falling more than 0.7%.

In the currency space, it was a case of extending the theme for the week, with the US dollar sliding further as the Dollar Index (which indicates the value of the US dollar against six major currencies) falling 0.11% while USD/JPY slid 0.21% to 107.08, the lowest level since January 3. The weaker dollar benefitted the risk-proxy currencies, with AUD/USD up 0.07% at 0.6929 and EUR/USD up 0.1% at 1.1302.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Oil prices squeeze higher

A potential escalation in the tensions in the Gulf, with the downing of a US surveillance drone, saw the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CFD post the biggest one-day gain this year yesterday as investors considered possible supply-side disruptions.

The blame has been placed squarely on Iran, with US President Trump tweeting that they had made “a big mistake” by downing the drone. While there has been no evidence of retaliatory moves, the New York Times reported this morning that Trump pulled back from attacks on Iran hours after approving them. It’s possible that new intelligence may have caused the reversal, since he later tweeted that the incident was probably a mistake by a “loose and stupid” individual.

WTI reached the highest since May 30 in early trading this morning and probably has the 100-day moving average at 58.52 in its sights. There is a congestion of moving averages above, with the 200-day average at 58.79 and the 55-day average at 59.77.

WTI Daily Chart

Flash PMIs on tap

Today we get to see the first indication of how the manufacturing sector across the globe might be performing in June. Flash Markit PMIs for Germany, the Euro-zone and the US grab the attention in today’s calendar, with slightly mixed expectations. The German PMI is expected to improve to 44.5 from 44.3, but it would still be the 11th month in a row it has been stuck in contraction territory. It’s a similar picture in the Euro-zone, with an increase to 48.0 from 47.7 anticipated, though again, it would be the ninth month spent below 50. In contrast, the US reading could see a marginal drop to 50.4 from 50.5, but still above the 50 contraction/expansion threshold.

Aside from the PMIs, we can expect US existing home sales for May and speeches from Fed’s Clarida and Brainard.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and current Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt entered the final race for UK Conservative leadership after Thursday votes. Johnson (with 160 votes) and Hunt (with 77 votes) knocked out Environment Minister Michael Gove (75 votes). The pair will now battle for supports from 160k Conservative members around UK. Results of postal votes are expected to be announced in the week of July 22.

EUR/GBP pulled back sharply after ECB President Mario Draghi hinted on more monetary policy easing ahead. But there was no follow through selling since then Sterling's upside is apparent capped by uncertain over who's the next UK Prime Minister would be, and Brexit risks. 0.8871 minor support is a level to watch for the near term. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8871 holds, for 0.9101 key resistance. But break of 0.8871 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back.