Sample Category Title

The euro is struggling with the 1.1300 level against the US dollar ahead of the release of key PMI data from the eurozone economy this morning. Weaker than expected PMI data may push the EURUSD pair back towards the 1.1260 to 1.1245 support zones. Another key mover for the EURUSD will be the US PMI data later today, with a worse than expected number likely to be US dollar negative.

The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1260 level, key support remains at the 1.1245 and 1.1225 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1260 level, key technical resistance remains at the 1.1310 and 1.1360 levels.

Ethereum has moved within touching distance of the $280.00 resistance level as the ETHUSD pair finally starts to follow Bitcoin higher. If bulls can breach the $285.00 level a bullish breakout towards the $320.00 level appears the most likely scenerario. Traders should track the action on the BTCUSD pair as it is starting to have a strong correlation with other top digital assets.

If the ETHUSD pair trades above the $285.00 level, key resistance is found at the $300.00 and $320.00 levels.

If the ETHUSD pair fails from the $280.00 level, key support is found at the $255.00 and $235.00 levels.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1037; (P) 1.1105; (R1) 1.1152; More...

EUR/CHF recovers after hitting 1.1056. But with 1.1145 minor resistance intact, intraday bias stays on the downside for further decline. Current down trend should target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next. On the upside, above 1.1145 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral for consolidation first. But recovery should be limited below 1.1264 resistance to bring further decline.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it's likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

US stocks ended the day at record highs as investors continued to cheer the recent Federal Reserve dovish view. The S&P, which is an index comprised of the biggest 500 American companies ended the day 0.9% higher while the Dow rose by almost a percentage point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose by 0.8%. These gains happened as traders placed their bets that the Fed has their back no matter what happens in the trade front. At the same time, US government bonds declined to the lowest level since 2016 while the dollar index declined by 0.5%. Gold rose to a six-year high.

Sterling rose slightly after the Bank of England (BOE) delivered its interest rates decision yesterday. The bank pointed towards a gradual rise in interest rates, resisting the dovish view expressed by other central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve. All this happened while investors are not aware of who will replace Theresa May as Prime Minister. Indications point to Boris Johnson, who has vowed to take the country out of the EU with or without a deal.

A day after the BOJ left rates unchanged, the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the USD. Earlier today, the country released inflation and manufacturing data. In May, the core CPI, which removes volatile products like food increased by 0.8% in May. This was lower than the expected gain of 0.9%. The headline CPI rose by 0.7%, which was lower than the 0.9% reported in April. At the same time, the core-core CPI, which removes food and energy products rose by 0.5%, easing from the previous 0.6%. In addition, the country’s manufacturing activity slowed in June. The Nikkei-Markit flash manufacturing PMI declined to a three-month low of 49.5 from the previous 49.8. A figure below 50 is an indication that activity is shrinking.

Later today, investors will receive the manufacturing, composite, and services PMI data from France, Germany, US and the European Union. They will also receive the Canadian retail sales, US existing home sales, and the Baker Hughes rig count data.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose in the Asian session to a high of 1.1300. On the hourly chart, this price was above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and above the 28-day and 14-day moving averages. The RSI has continued to rise and is currently slightly below the 70 level. The accumulation/distribution indicator has continued to move up. The pair will likely continue to move higher, to test the important support of 1.1350.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continued to decline, even after the weak manufacturing and inflation numbers from Japan. The pair reached a low of 107.04, which is slightly above the important support level of 107.00. On the four-hour chart, the pair is below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages while the RSI has dropped to the oversold low of 23.43. It is also trading along the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The pair will likely continue moving lower to test the 107.00 support level.

SPX500

The S&P 500 index rose to an intraday high of $2960, which was the highest level on record. On the four-hour chart below, the pair has made an impressive recovery after falling to a low of $2728 in May last month. This price is above all the short and medium-term moving averages. The RSI remains above the overbought level of 70. After the Fed boost, the movement of the index will depend on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Xi next week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6283; (P) 1.6323; (R1) 1.6350; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6448 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained well above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6448 will target 100% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6631 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 56.65

Our preference Long positions above 56.65 with targets at 58.00 & 58.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 56.65 look for further downside with 55.90 & 55.25 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.3700

Our preference Long positions above 15.3700 with targets at 15.5500 & 15.6700 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 15.3700 look for further downside with 15.2600 & 15.1900 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside

Pivot (invalidation): 1393.00

Our preference Long positions above 1393.00 with targets at 1415.00 & 1426.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1393.00 look for further downside with 1386.00 & 1379.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 2930.00

Our preference Long positions above 2930.00 with targets at 2973.00 & 2990.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2930.00 look for further downside with 2910.00 & 2897.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 12440.00

Our preference Short positions below 12440.00 with targets at 12300.00 & 12220.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 12440.00 look for further upside with 12540.00 & 12610.00 as targets.

Comment The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 12440.00.