Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2690

Our preference Short positions below 1.2690 with targets at 1.2665 & 1.2650 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2690 look for further upside with 1.2705 & 1.2715 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1290

Our preference Short positions below 1.1290 with targets at 1.1265 & 1.1250 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.1290 look for further upside with 1.1305 & 1.1325 as targets.

Comment A break below 1.1265 would trigger a drop towards 1.1250.

Gold prices posted modest gains on Thursday. This came despite receding risk appetite. However, the news of the tensions near the Straits of Hormuz kept the momentum going in the precious metal. Investors await next week’s Fed meeting which could see the central bank shifting from a neutral outlook to dovish.

Will Gold be Able to Maintain the Uptrend?

The precious metal continued to maintain its strong bullish trend on Thursday. Price was seen maintaining the gains as it is currently testing the June 7th highs of 1340.44. A breakout above the 1350 level will be crucial for the precious metal to continue to maintain the gains. To the downside, the support area at 1320 remains critical to the upside.

Crude oil prices surged higher on Thursday erasing the gains from the day before. The reversal in oil prices came on the news about two oil tankers that were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The news quickly stoked fears of escalating tensions between Iran and the US. Cost of shipping and insurance premiums are also expected to rise, adding to the price surge. By Thursday’s close, however, oil prices retreated off the intraday highs.

Will WTI Reverse Direction?

The rebound in oil prices coincided with the test of the support area at 51.70. The rebound was however short lived. Price is seen retreating earlier today. Thus, a retest of the support area is quite likely. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the 51.70 handle, we expect to see some upside in price. But in the event of a break down below 51.70, then oil prices could be on track to test the $50.00 psychological support.

The kick off to the top spot at 10 Downing street started yesterday with the favorite, Boris Johnson leading the way. The UK Conservatives voted through seven candidates with three being eliminated. The next round of voting is due to take place this coming Tuesday. The sterling was however muted to the news as it continues to trade flat.

Will GBPUSD Breakout from its Range?

The GBPUSD currency pair has managed to post some modest gains. However, price was seen testing the upper end of the range at 1.2716 before giving up the gains. Price remains flat and we could expect to see this ranging price action continue for a while. The chances of a decline lower to 1.2606 is limited for the moment. GBPUSD will need to break out above 1.2716 to confirm further upside in price.

Spot gold accelerated higher in early European trading on Friday and eventually broke above former 2019 high at $1346 (20Feb) to hit the highest levels in fourteen months.

The yellow metal extends strong rally into third straight day, boosted by expectations of Fed rate cut by the end of the year on slowing inflation, weaker labor sector and the newest crisis in the Middle East that boosts safe-haven demand.

Significant bullish signal can be expected on weekly close above $1346 pivot that would expose 2018 highs at $1365/66 and open way towards key barriers at $1375/82 (2016 high/Fibo 38.2% of longer-term $1923/$1047 fall).

Bullish studies support positive sentiment with corrective dips expected to offer better buying opportunities above rising 10SMA ($1333).

Res: 1360, 1365, 1370, 1375
Sup: 1350, 1346, 1341, 1337

Gold finally resumes recent up trend by breaking through 1346.71 resistance decisively and reaches as high as 1358.16 so far. Further rise should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54 next. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1319.95 support holds, in case of retreat.

More importantly, upside re-acceleration is seen in weekly MACD after drawing support from 55 week EMA. The development is rather medium term bullish. Rise from 1160.17 could indeed be resuming whole rise from 1046.37 (2015 low) as consolidation from 1375.17 completed with three waves to 1160.17. That is, we'd likely see decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36 finally. In that case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1586.70 in medium to long term.

USDCAD gained some ground after the aggressive sell-off towards the three-month low of 1.3240, penetrating the long-term ascending trend line to the downside. The technical indicators are feeding prospects for a possible positive short-term trading; the RSI is pointing up below 50, while the stochastic continues to strengthen its momentum.

A decisive close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.2250 to 1.3664 near 1.3330 could add more value to the pair, pushing the market up to 1.3380. Slightly above this region the 20- and 40-day moving averages (SMAs) currently at 1.3400 and 1.3420 respectively, could provide immediate resistance. Further up, the five-month high of 1.3564 has been a strong obstacle and therefore should be in focus.

In the negative scenario, a reversal to the downside could retest the three-month low of 1.3240. If this prove easy to overcome this time, the decline may next pause somewhere between the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.3120 and 1.3110.

In brief, although USDCAD is in a slightly bearish mode in the medium-term following the fall below the uptrend line, the short-term trades are currently looking for potential bullish corrections.

The British pound is once again testing towards the 1.2660 level against the US dollar after suffering another strong rejection from the 1.2700 resistance level. Bulls are struggling to keep the GBPUSD pair above the 1.2700 level, with sellers holding the upperhand while price trades below this key level. Overall, a sustained break above the 1.2710 level may inspire another technical test towards the 1.2750 resistance area.

The GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2700 level, key resistance is located at the 1.2710 and 1.2750 levels.

The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2700 level, key intraday support remains at the 1.2665 and 1.2630 levels.

The euro currency has slumped to a fresh weekly trading low against the US dollar after the pair broke through the 1.1280 support barrier. Sustained losses below the 1.1260 level may trigger the next heavy EURUSD sell-off towards at least the 1.1235 support zone. Worse than expected US retail sales data later today may help to send the US dollar index lower and give the EURUSD a boost back towards the 1.1300 level.

The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1300 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1260 and 1.1235 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1300 level, buyers may test the 1.1321 and 1.1347 levels.