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Australia’s Economic Growth Slowed In 1Q 2019
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.22% against the USD and closed at 0.6990.
LME Copper prices rose 0.1% or $8.0/MT to $5804.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.7% or $12.0/MT to $1751.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7000, with the AUD trading 0.14% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
Overnight data revealed that Australia's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.4% on a quarterly basis in 1Q 2019, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the prior quarter. Market participants had expected GDP to record a gain of 0.5%. Moreover, the nation's AIG performance of services index climbed to a level of 52.5 in May, compared to a reading of 46.5 in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the CBA services PMI declined to a level of 51.5 in May, compared to a reading of 52.3 in the prior month.
Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit services PMI index dropped to a level of 52.7 in May, compared to a reading of 54.5 in the previous month. Market participants had expected the PMI to drop to a level of 54.0.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.6970, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6940. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7017, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7034.
Moving ahead, traders would await Australia's trade balance data for April, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold marginally declined against the USD and closed at USD1330.00 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1330.80, with gold trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1325.63, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1320.47. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1335.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1339.27.
The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.20% against the USD and closed at USD14.81 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.80, with silver trading 0.10% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.68, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.56. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.88, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.97.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher, Ahead Of EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.06% against the USD and closed at USD53.03 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 478 million barrels in the week ended 31 May 2019.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 53.13, with oil trading 0.19% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 52.45, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 51.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 53.80, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 54.46.
Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1227; (P) 1.1252; (R1) 1.1277; More.....
Focus remains on 1.1263 resistance in EUR/USD. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1263 will be an early sign of medium term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1448 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.1263 will retain bearishness. That is, in this case, larger down trend from 1.2555 should resume sooner rather than later through 1.1107 low.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2656; (P) 1.2686; (R1) 1.2729; More....
GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2559 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook stays bearish with 1.2747 intact and fall from 1.3381 would still extend lower. On the downside, break of 1.2559 will target 1.2391 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. Though, break of 1.2747 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) is possibly ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9898; (P) 0.9927; (R1) 0.9953; More...
USD/CHF's fall from 1.0237 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9879 key support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications and target 0.9716 support next. On the upside, break of 1.0008 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, USD/CHF's break of long term trend line support is the first indication of medium term reversal. Focus is now back on 0.9879 support. Decisive break should add to the case that rise from 0.9186 has completed at 1.0237 already. Further fall should be seen to 0.9716 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9712) next.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.87; (P) 108.12; (R1) 108.40; More...
USD/JPY continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no clear sign of bottoming. Further fall should be seen and sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6966; (P) 0.6985; (R1) 0.7011; More...
AUD/USD's break of 0.6988 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6864, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, the decline from 0.7295 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6864 too. Intraday bias now stays on the upside for 0.7069 resistance first. Break will target 0.7205 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6938 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6864 low instead.
In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3365; (P) 1.3409; (R1) 1.3437; More...
USD/CAD drops to as low as 1.3376 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current development suggests that choppy rise from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3564, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Decisive break of 1.3357 support will confirm this bearish case and target 1.3274 support next. More importantly, that could also have medium term channel support taken out, which carries larger bearish implications too. On the upside, break of 1.3449 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of fall from 1.3564. Otherwise, further decline remains in favor in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3335). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break of the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.
















