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Canada GDP disappoints

Data from Stats Canada this morning showed that the Canadian economy contracted in February, falling short of expectations, as both mining and rail transportation recorded sharp declines.

Canada’s GDP contracted -0.1% in February from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted C$1.946T. Market expectations were looking for a flat reading. On a year-over-year basis, the Canadian economy advanced +1.1% in February.

Canada PPI rises

Stats Canada also reported that Canadian producer prices (PPI) rose last month because of higher prices for energy and petroleum products. Meanwhile, the country’s raw-materials price index also rose.

Canada’s industrial product price index rose +1.3% in March, following a +0.3% increase in February.

Note: Of the 21 commodity groups tracked for PPI, 16 were up, one was down and four were unchanged.

On a 12-month basis, the index rose +1.5%.

Elsewhere, prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials rose by +2.8% in March, following a revised +3.0% increase in February. On a 12-month basis, prices for raw materials were down -1.5%.

Loonie under pressure

CAD’s initial reaction to this morning released data is to reverse course from the loonie’s high of the day so far. USD/CAD is currently trading C$1.3448, paring some of CAD’s gains on the back of a softer USD over the past 24 hours.

The Canadian dollar erased most of its gains after the February GDP report showed a monthly decline of -0.1%, missing expectations of a flat reading, while the year-over-year print came in at 1.1%, down from 1.6% much softer than the 1.4% eyed. Continued weakness in the mining,oil and gas sector saw a 1.6% monthly decline. Transport and warehousing also gave the worst decline since 2011. Overall output contracted in 9 of the 20 industrial sectors.

Overall weakness in the dollar saw buyers come in for the loonie following the soft GDP print. USD/CAD trades 0.1% lower at 1.3438.

Several British media, including BBC and Guardian, reported today that Prime Minister Theresa May is now targeting to reach a Brexit compromise with opposition Labour Party by the middle of next week.

May's spokesman had declined to set an end date for the talks, and described the latest round of talks as "serious and constructive".

Separately, Labour Party is meeting today to hammer out its position on whether to demand a second referendum on any Brexit deal as part of its campaign for the European parliament election next month.

Canada GDP unexpected dropped -0.1% mom in February, worse than expectation of 0.0% mom. Looking at some details, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector declines (-1.6%) for the sixth consecutive month. All subsectors decline. Transportation and warehousing contract as rail transportation drops -1.6%, largest fall since June 2011. That's largely due to a 10.8% drop in rail transportation. Finance and insurance sector declined -0.6%., Manufacturing sector contracted -0.4%. Though, utilities were up 1.5% due to record-setting cold weather in Western Canada. Construction grew for the second month by 0.2%. Also from Canada, IPPI rose 1.3% mom, RMPI rose 2.8% mom in March.

The DAX index is unchanged on Tuesday, after a quiet start to the week. Currently, the DAX is at 12,328, down 0.03% on the day. In economic news, it’s a busy day. German GfK consumer climate remained pegged at 10.4, just above the forecast of 10.3 points. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on German CPI, with an estimate of 0.5%, and eurozone Flash GDP, which is expected to rise slightly to 0.3%.

On the employment front, there were solid April numbers out of Germany and the eurozone. German unemployment change came in at -12 thousand, beating the estimate of -6 thousand. In the eurozone, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, its lowest level since 2008. There was more positive news out of Spain, the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy. The economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, unchanged from the previous quarter. Inflation improved to 1.5% in April, marking a 5-month high.

Is a U.S-China trade deal imminent? Negotiations will continue on April 30, in Beijing, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin waxed positive on Sunday, saying that the talks were in their “final laps”. However, Mnuchin cautioned that the talks could still end without an agreement. The nasty trade war between the two largest economies in the world has rocked the global economy and curbed growth. If the sides can hammer out an agreement, investor risk appetite would likely soar and boost equity markets.

Euro rebounds further after stronger than expected German inflation data. CPI rose 1.0% mom in April, double of expectation of 1.0% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 2.0% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy and beat expectation of 1.5% yoy.

Full release here.

A tale of two stories, rather it appears the two have reversed positions. Last month, optimism was growing that China was rebounding and Europe still remained weak. Early in Asia, the official Chinese factory gauge barely stayed in expansion territory. The headline came in at 50.1, down from 50.5 prior, and somewhat disheartening for many who expected an unchanged reading. The rest of the Chinese data was rather poor, with services PMI also missing expectations and the private sector readings confirming softness. In Europe, an onslaught of data delivered a rather upbeat tone. The euro area economy grew more than expected as Italy ended its technical recession, France and Spain showed improvements, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since 2008, and the German states are showing inflation.

• EUR – On the verge of a major breakout
• AUD- China still stabilizing
• Oil – Saudis production talk and Venezuela’s Guaido’s uprising drive crude higher
• Stock – Google and Samsung take air out of Tech
• Gold – Attempting to recapture $1,300 an oz

EUR

Start of the second quarter is looking promising for the euro zone area. Economic growth is flashing signs of a recovery and inflation is coming back and if we get a dovish Fed on Wednesday, we could be talking about EUR/USD attempting to recapture 1.1300. The rebound in Germany was expected, but if we continue to get strong signs from the periphery, we could see a major bottom in place for the euro. Down the road, the bigger story might be the Italy exiting a technical recession, which could provide the ECB room to hold back on adding further stimulus.

AUD

The Australian dollar fell sharply against all of its major trading partners following the disappointing round of Chinese PMI readings. While no one is expecting a hard landing due to the initial wave of Chinese stimulus, this emphasizes the need for a trade deal to be wrapped up so the PBOC can use their bazooka of stimulus. Weakness in commodity currencies however were short-lived as trade optimism remains high as US negotiators arrive in Beijing. US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and hope to deliver meaningful progress that will keep hopes for a final agreement at the end of May.

Oil

Crude prices first caught a bid after Saudi Arabia refuted Trump’s comments that OPEC will pump more and as Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido calls for an uprising with military support. The banter between the Saudis and President Trump is somewhat expected, but the potential military uprising could be what is needed for oil to recover last week’s decline. It is unclear if Guaido has a significant amount of military support, but even if it is a small number of troops, it indicates he is making progress. The country is in meltdown mode and it could be a matter of time before Maduro is forced out or decides to flee. Oil remains vulnerable on Veneuzuela, but once Guaido takes over, we could see oil selloff sharply. If Guaido gets captured, oil could rise a few dollars. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $64.35 a barrel .

Stocks

Technology stocks did not get any help from Google or Samsung, while GE, Merck and Pfizer delivered strong earnings results that took their respective shares higher. Apple delivers their results after the close and traders will focus on services growth. At the beginning of the year, the iPhone maker delivered a warning that triggered the low for tech stocks. Wall Street is looking for clarity on iPhone weakness in China and if services business growth can continue to alleviate the falling phone sales. The consensus is for EPS to plummet to $2.37 and revenues to slide over 5% to $57 billion.

Gold

The precious metal is gaining momentum hear following the soft PMI readings from China. A further deterioration however is not expected in China and the key to gold will likely be whether Fed delivers a strong dovish message.

Mixed markets as we head into the business end of the week

Markets in Europe are once again mixed, with US indices eyeing a similar open as we head into the business end of the week.

Earnings season remains a key focal point for investors and Monday got us off to a slow – albeit disappointing in the case of Alphabet – start but this should pick up in the coming days. The Fed begins its two day meeting today with the policy decision and press conference following on Wednesday, while the jobs report is also due on Friday to bring a heavy week to a close. We’re probably seeing some caution right now in anticipation of these, particularly as we’re now back at record highs in the case of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The Chinese PMIs overnight won’t have spread much optimism, only a month after that very data led many to question whether they had become too pessimistic about the world’s second largest economy. It’s important to note that the manufacturing PMI remained in growth territory – just – but this was undoubtedly a setback. This is probably a sign of what we can expect in the near-term, mixed data that’s volatile from month to month.

Data from the eurozone has provided some positivity – against the backdrop of a broadly negative environment, it’s worth pointing out – with first quarter growth and unemployment figures both exceeding expectations. I don’t think anyone is kidding themselves after this data – 7.7% unemployment is still not good enough and 1.2% annual growth certainly isn’t but at a time when the data seems to be deteriorating month on month, we have to take what we can get.

Notes/Observations

• A spree of economic releases saw European economic data beat expectations on both the growth and inflation fronts (euro zone, Italian and Spanish GDP data; Italian unemployment, French, German, Spanish, Italian CPI readings)
• Turkey Central bank vowed to use all tools to curb inflation as it sought to reassure markets that it would not soften its monetary policy. (Reminder: dropped its pledge to deliver further tightening if needed at its last decision)
• US-China trade talks underway in Beijing
• China PMI barely holds onto expansion; data adds uncertainty whether growth was strong enough to withstand any erosion of policy support

Asia:

• China Apr Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 50.6e (2nd month of expansion)
• China Apr Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.2 v 50.9e

Europe/Mideast:

• UK cross-party talks with government said to be more positive than expected from last week's discussions
• Grassroots Conservative Party local chairmen and activist said to have called for an extraordinary meeting with the PM to demand her resignation (1st such attempt by a grassroot effort in 185 years). The vote was not binding, but would add to the overwhelming pressure for her to stand down.

Americas:

• White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: next two weeks should give clarity on US-China trade talks; we were 'pretty close' to a deal. White House still supported Stephen Moore for nomination to the Fed. Pres Trump had not decided on whether to support higher fuel tax as part of an infrastructure package

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.14% at 390.68, FTSE -0.14% at 7,430.25, DAX -0.10% at 12,315.72, CAC-40 -0.40% at 5,558.48, IBEX-35 -0.32% at 9,487.06, FTSE MIB +0.15% at 21,821.50, SMI +0.31% at 9,770.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.06%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mostly lower after mixed session in Asia and mixed US futures. The tech heavy Nasdaq underperforms, weighed upon by shares of Alphabet which falls ~8% following a Revenue miss. On a busy morning on the macro front, European nation GDP and Inflation data mostly came ahead of forecasts pushing the Euro higher. On a busy morning for corporate earnings, shares of Swiss traded AMS outperforms following a strong Revenue beat and strong Q2 guidance, with the shares up over 20%; DSV outperforms on strong earnings and share buyback, as well as progress on its acquisition of Panalpina, with Panalpina shares up over 6%, while StanChart rises over 5% on earnings and a $1B share buyback. Elsewhere other risers include Beiersdorf, Spie and Deutsche Boerse. Meanwhile shares of Danske Bank trades sharply lower after a decline in profits and Revenue and downgraded outlook; while Airbus trades lower following in line results. Glencore, Orange, Thales, Whitbread and Lufthansa other notable names declining on earnings. In other news Ceconomy rises significantly after thee Board approves reorganization and efficiency program; Greenyard gains on a strategic partnership with Tesco. Looking ahead notable earners include Lumber Liquidators, General Electric, Mastercard, McDonalds, General Motors, Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lily and Ecolabs among others.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Lufthansa [LHA.DE] -1.5% (earnings), Clariant [CLN.CH] -3% (earnings), Ceconomy [CEC.DE] +11% (efficiency program), Straumann [STMN.CH] -4% (earnings), Whitbread [WTB.UK] -3% (earnings), WM Morrison Supermarkets [MRW.UK] +1.5%, Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] -0.5% (Kantar, Nielsen data)
• Consumer staples: Greene King [GNK.UK] -5.5% (earnings)
• Energy: BP [BP.UK] +0.5% (earnings)
• Financials: Danske Bank [DANSKE.DK] -7% (earnings; cuts outlook), Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] +4% (earnings; buyback program), SEB [SEBA.SE] -0.5% (earnings), Nordea Bank [NDA.SE] -3% (earnings)
• Materials: Glencore [GLEN.UK] -3% (production)
• Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] -1% (earnings), Thales [HO.FR] -3.0% (sales), Aixtron [AIXA.DE] -1% (earnings), Symrise [SY1.DE] +1% (earnings), DS Smith [SMDS.UK] -3% (trading update)
• Technology: Logitech [LOGN.CH] -3.5% (earnings; CFO departs), AMS [AMS.CH] +21% (earnings), Rexel [RXL.FR] +4.5% (earnings)
• Telecom: Orange [ORA.FR] -2.5% (earnings)

Speakers

• France Fin Min Le Maire stated that the govt would not change its 2019 GDP growth forecast after data. Noted that the Total cost of yellow vest measures around €17B
• EU Court on CETA trade accord; ruled the agreement as valid (binding decision)
• Greece govt official: To use cash buffer for reduction of debt and non-performing loans (NPLs)
• Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) stated that aggregate demand worked to slow CPI in Q1 with current CPI in-line with path predicted back in Jan. It saw CPI slowing to single digits in Q2 2020 and reiterated view that saw CPI slowing to 5% in the medium term. Maintained 2019 CPI at 14.6% and maintained 2020 CPI at 8.2%. Raised end-2019 Food price inflation from 13.0% to 16.0%
• S&P raised Philippines sovereign rating to BBB+; outlook stable
• Saudi Energy Min Al-Falih reiterates stance that would not exceed OPEC+ production limit agreement; extension was possible to end of 2019. Saudi exports seen below 7M bpd until end of May

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD was at 1-week lows against the major pairs as the NY morning approached. The greenback retreated from its recent cycle highs as US inflation data has been below expectations.
• EUR/USD edged above the 1.12 level as a spree of European economic releases beat expectations on both the growth and inflation fronts (Euro Zone, Italian and Spanish GDP data; Euro Zone, German, Italian unemployment; French, German, Spanish, Italian CPI readings all exceeded consensus).
• Rounding out the majors: USD/JPY at 111.40, lower by 0.2%; GBP/USD at 1.2980, higher by 0.4%; USD/CHF at 1.0180, lower by 0.1%

Economic Data

• (FR) France Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
• (DE) Germany May GfK Consumer Confidence: 10.4 v 10.3e
• (DE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.1%e
• (FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -€0.1B v -€0.1B prelim
• (NO) Norway Mar Retail Sales (includes auto/fuel) M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e
• (RU) Russia Apr PMI Manufacturing: 51.8 v 51.9e (7th straight expansion)
• (NO) Norway Feb AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.8% v 3.8%e
• (ZA) South Africa Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0% v 5.3%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.0%e
• (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
• (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
• (FR) France Apr PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1% prior
• (FR) France Apr Consumer Spending M/M: -0.1% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.4%e
• (FR) France Mar YTD Budget Balance: -€40.7B v -€36.9B prior
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Saxony M/M: 0.9% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4% prior
• (ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e
• (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
• (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.1% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e
• (ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4%e; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.7% prior
• (CH) Swiss Apr KOF Leading Indicator: 96.2 v 97.0e
• (HU) Hungary Feb Average Gross Wages Y/Y: % v 11.1%e
• (HU) Hungary Mar PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7% prior
• (AT) Austria Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.4% prior
• (AT) Austria Mar PPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6% prior
• (TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$2.1B v -$2.1Be
• (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account Balance: $6.1B v $4.4Be; Overall Balance of payments (BOP): -$0.1B v +$3.3B prior; Trade Account Balance: $3.6B v $3.5B prior Exports Y/Y: -4.2% v -1.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: -5.8% v -7.3% prior
• (DE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: -12K v -7Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 4.9% v 4.9%e
• (TW) Taiwan Q1 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4%e
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.8% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4% prior
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Hesse M/M: 0.9% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.1% prior
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.7% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.5% prior
• (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 10.2% v 10.7%e
• (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) May Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -600M v -600M prior
• (PL) Poland Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.8%e
• (CZ) Czech Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.9% prior
• (ES) Spain Feb Current Account Balance: -€2.8B v -€1.5B prior
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 1.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.5% prior
• (PT) Portugal Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.6% v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prior
• (PT) Portugal Apr Preliminary EU Harmonized CPI M/M: 1.0% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8% prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.8%e (lowest since 2008)
• (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI NIC (including tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
• (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
• (BE) Belgium Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.8% prior
• (IS) Iceland Mar Final Trade Balance (ISK): B v -13.2B prelim

Fixed Income Issuance

• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds
• Sold €2.5B vs. €2.0-2.5B indicated range in 1.75% July 2024 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: 1.72% v 1.71% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.52x v 1.31x prior
• Sold €3.0B vs. €2.5-3.0B indicated range in 3.00% Aug 2029 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.59% v 2.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.40x prior
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €1.0B vs. €0.5-1.0B indicated range in 2025 CCTeu (Floating rate Note); Avg Yield: % v 1.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.67x prior (Mar 28th 2019
• (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR vs. ZAR3.3B indicated in 2030, 2040 and 2044 bonds
• (CH) Switzerland sold CHF419.7M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.793% v -0.778% prior

Looking Ahead

• (SE) Swedish Opposition Budget Deadline
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
• (IL) Israel Mar Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
• 05:30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL sales data
• 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka Apr CPI Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) (prior €6.0B with 29 bids recd)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €875M in 26-week bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.58% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.53x prior (Apr 3rd 2019)
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 0% Mar 2021 Schatz
• 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR)
• 06:00 (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.4% prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.5% prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior
• 06:00 (IL) Israel Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.1% prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:30 (IN) India Mar Eight Infrastructure(key) Industries: No est v 2.1% prior
• 07:45 (US) Weekly Chain Store Sales data
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.90% and leaves Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.05%
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): No est v 4.0B prior
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v 10.9B prior
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar National Unemployment Rate: 12.9%e v 12.4% prior
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.8% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index
• 08:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ Bond issuance
• 08:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.7%e v 0.7% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb GDP M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.6% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Industrial Product Price M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: No est v 4.6% prior
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales data
• 09:00 (US) Feb S&P/Case-shiller 20-City M/M: 0.20%e v 0.11% prior; Y/Y: 3.10%e v 3.58% prior; House Price Index (HPI): 213.08e v 212.41 prior
• 09:00 (US) Feb S&P Case-Shiller (overall) HPI YoY: No est v 4.26% prior; Overall HPI Index: No est v 204.71 prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.7% prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Gold Production: No est v 6.8K kilograms prior; Silver Production: No est v 282.4K kilograms prior; Copper Production: No est v 44.8K tons prior - 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.9%e v 6.7% prior
• 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.2%e v -3.6% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 1.5%e v 0.8% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 417.1K tons prior - 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• (MX) Mexico Mar YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -27.6B prior
• 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -22.4Be v -14.9B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: -52.9Be v -45.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 54.5%e v 54.4% prior
• 09:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchasing Managers (PMI): 59.0e v 58.7 prior
• 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.9%e v -1.0% prior; No est v -5.0% prior
• 10:00 (US) Apr Consumer Confidence: 126.5e v 124.1 prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXP): No est v 4.475T prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves data
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.3%e v 12.4% prior
• 11:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz with member Wilkins
• 15:00 (US) Mar Agricultural Prices Paid: No est v 0.8% prior; Agriculture Prices Received: No est v 2.0% prior
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -5.0%e v -5.7% prior
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventory data

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he hopes to make "substantial progress" on trade negotiations as he arrived in Beijing with Trade Representative Lighthizer today. Mnuchin said "we've a meeting here, and then the vice premier and team will be coming back to Washington D.C., and we hope to make substantial progress in these two meetings."

He added: "I'm not going to comment on specific issues of the discussions... They've been quite broad as I've said before. We've made a lot of progress. We look forward to the meetings here."

China's Foreign Ministry said "in recent months, both countries' economic and trade teams have held many rounds of high-level consultations and achieved much positive progress." China hopes that both sides can "work hard, exclude disturbances, and reach a mutually beneficial, win-win agreement".