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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2908; (P) 1.2927; (R1) 1.2951; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2865 is extending. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3019 minor resistance to bring another decline. Current development suggests that rebound from 1.2391 has completed at 1.3381. On the downside, below 1.2865 will target 1.2773 support to confirm this bearish case. On the upside, however, break of 1.3019 resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) halted after hitting 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 could have completed after just missing 50% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.338. Such rebound could be a correction to fall from 1.4376 only. Break of 1.2773 support will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2391. Break of 1.2391 will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946 (2016 low).

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0182; (P) 1.0199; (R1) 1.0214; More...

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.0237 temporary top and intraday bias remain neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 1.0130 minor support to bring rise resumption. Prior break of 1.0128 resistance confirmed resumption of up trend from 0.9186. On the upside, above 1.0237 will target 100% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0124 from 0.9879 at 1.0287, and then 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 1.0130 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper retreat first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.49; (P) 111.70; (R1) 111.84; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Deeper decline remains mildly in favor as a short term top was formed at 112.40 already. On the downside, break of 110.84 support add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. However, decisive break of 112.40 will confirm rise resumption for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3439; (P) 1.3459; (R1) 1.3480; More...

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3521 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.3399 minor support to bring another rally. Prior break of 1.3467 resistance indicates resumption of rise from 1.3068. On the upside, break of 1.3521 will extend the rise to retest 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3235). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds.

Euro-Zone’s M3 Money Supply Climbed To Its Highest Level In 14-Months In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.30% against the USD and closed at 1.1184.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone's M3 money supply advanced to 14-month high of 4.5% on an annual basis in March, surpassing market anticipation for a rise of 4.2%. In the previous month, M3 money supply had recorded a rise of 4.3%.

On the other hand, the region's final consumer confidence index declined to a level of -7.9 in April, meeting market expectations and confirming the preliminary figures. Moreover, the industrial confidence index fell to a 5-year low level of -4.1 in April, declining for the 10th consecutive month and compared to a revised level of -1.6 in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged the index to drop to a level of -2.0. Further, the Euro-zone's economic sentiment indicator slid to a level of 104.0 in April, undershooting market consensus for a fall to a level of 105.0. The indicator had registered a revised level of 105.6 in the prior month. Meanwhile, the services sentiment indicator remained flat at 11.5 in April, at par market expectations.

In the US, data showed that the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index unexpectedly eased to a level of 2.0 in April, compared to market anticipation of a gain to a level of 10.0. The index had registered a level of 8.3 in the previous month.

On the contrary, the US personal income rose 0.1% on a monthly basis in March, falling short of market consensus for a rise of 0.4%. Personal income had registered an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. Also, the nation's personal spending advanced 0.9% on a monthly basis in March, rising by the most since 2009 and higher than market expectations for an advance of 0.7%. Personal spending had registered a gain of 0.1% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1189, with the EUR trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1159, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1129. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1221.

Moving ahead, traders would keep an eye on the Euro-zone's unemployment rate for March and gross domestic product for the first quarter, along with Germany's consumer price index for April, scheduled to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US Chicago purchasing managers' index and the consumer confidence index, both for April, followed by pending home sales for March, will pique significant amount of investors' attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK’s Lloyds Business Barometer Advanced In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.2932.

The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, vowed to revamp the central bank by adapting to hard as well as soft infrastructure in order to adhere with the technological changes and the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2941, with the GBP trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that UK’s Lloyds business barometer climbed to a level of 14.0% in April, following a level of 10.0% in the prior month. Meanwhile, the GfK consumer confidence index remained unchanged at -13.0 in April, at par with market expectations.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2915, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2889. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2957, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2973.

Looking ahead, traders would await UK’s BRC shop price index for April, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Reverses Its Losses In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally rose against the JPY and closed at 111.68.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.59, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.47, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.34. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.02.

Moving ahead, investors would await Japan’s Nikkei manufacturing PMI for April, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 1.0194.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits eased to a level of CHF576.7 billion in the week ended 26 April, from CHF576.9 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0193, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0180, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0167. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0229.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator for April, slated to release in a while.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading Slightly Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally declined against the CAD and closed at 1.3453.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3458, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3439, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3419. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3479, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3499.

Looking forward, investors would closely monitor Canada’s gross domestic product for February, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7042; (P) 0.7052; (R1) 0.7066; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly after recovery from 0.6988 lost momentum. But it's staying well above 0.6988 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. More consolidation would be seen. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7081 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. Prior break of 0.7003 suggests resumption of whole fall from 0.7295. On the downside, break of 0.6988 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.