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France GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q1, unchanged from Q3 and matched expectations. Looking at the details:

• Household consumption expenditures bounced back (0.4% after 0.0%). Total gross fixed capital formation decelerated slightly (0.3% after 0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly. It contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.
• Imports slowed down in Q1 (0.9% after 1,2%) and exports halted (0.1% after 2.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.3 points, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.
• Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (0.3 points after -0.1 points).

Full release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.08; (P) 144.41; (R1) 144.72; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral with focus on 143.72 key support. On the downside, decisive break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first. Meanwhile, rebound from current level will retain bullishness. Decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish in implications and target 156.58 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

The EUR/USD could also make a bearish bounce at the resistance zone (red box) or trend line (red). Both scenarios would confirm a downtrend and bearish breakout. The main targets are the Fibonacci levels of wave 3 vs 1.

The EUR/USD is testing the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 vs 3, which is a key decision zone for a bearish bounce or bullish breakout. A bearish bounce in the resistance zone would also need to see a a bearish breakout below the support trend line (blue) before a downtrend is back on track.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.49; (P) 124.79; (R1) 125.25; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation above 124.09 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Current development suggests corrective pattern from 127.50 is extending with fall from 126.79 as the third leg. Upside of recovery from 124.09 should be limited by 125.28 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, below 124.09 will target 123.65 support. Nevertheless, break of 125.28 will turn bias back to the upside for 126.79 resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. In case of an extension, break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8631; (P) 0.8643; (R1) 0.8667; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as consolidation from 0.8474 is extending. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.8722 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.8474 will resume larger down trend for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 0.8722 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 0.8840 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high) is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline could extend to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Market movers today

Today we have a lot of important data releases across markets, with a slight disappointment in PMIs out of China (see below) setting the scene for the day.

In the euro area, we are due to get the Q1 GDP print, which we expect to show how much the weak manufacturing sector has dragged down growth at the start of the year. The service sector has been strong on the back of rising domestic demand though and we expect a 0.3% q/q print. Also in the euro area, the German inflation print will give us a glimpse of where Friday's euro-area inflation print is heading. Last month, inflation fell on the back of seasonal effects from the timing of Easter - we expect the print to rebound on the back of this effect and due to rising energy prices.

The Hungarian central bank (MNB) is due to announce its rate decision today. At the March meeting, the central bank kept its key rate unchanged and hiked the overnight deposit rate by 10bp to -0.05% to respond to hawkish market expectations. We expect the loose monetary policy to continue and look for no key rate changes today but the prospect of further implicit tightening through liquidity tools remains.

In the Scandi region, we are due to get retail sales and unemployment data from Norway and data on house-price developments in Denmark.

Selected market news

Overnight, Chinese PMIs were weaker than expected: official (NBS) manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in April (50.5 in March), short of expectations it would be unchanged after a significant jump in March. The fall was broad based, with the new orders sub-index down a little, however, the export orders component rose, suggesting external demand may be improving somewhat. The non-manufacturing index also fell, to 54.3 (54.8 in March), disappointing against expectations of a small rise. The private (Caixin) manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 (50.8 in March) after a strong rebound in previous months - its non-manufacturing counterpart is not due until next week. Overall, while Chinese PMIs disappointed and hinted that at this stage we have nothing more than a fragile stabilisation in Chinese activity, we stress (i) some weakness was to be expected after the rebound in recent month(s), (ii) all indices are above the 50 boom/bust level and (iii) an extensive trade deal in Q2 should help stabilise China into H2.

Ahead of the PMI disappointments out of China, risk sentiment was off to a good start in US hours with S&P 500 rising just shy of the 2,950 mark and reaching a new record close, as US data on Monday afternoon left the impression of muted inflation amid healthy consumer spending. However, in US after-hours trading, Google conglomerate Alphabet missed revenue estimates. In the Asian session, Korean electronics giant Samsung missed analyst expectations. US Treasury yields initially rose and ended the day a few basis points higher across the curve, with the sell-off concentrated at the long end. USD weakened and EUR/USD held up towards the 1.12 mark despite Chinese weakness. Crude oil was steady around USD71.50/bbl for Brent.

Next up is the Fed, which is widely expected to keep rates unchanged but its description of the economy and what it needs could be key in setting the scene for risk assets.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5820; (P) 1.5838; (R1) 1.5869; More...

EUR/AUD recovers strong after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we're still slightly favoring the bullish case that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, above 1.5959 affirm this week and target 1.6122 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.5683 to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1390; (R1) 1.1424; More...

EUR/CHF recovered after hitting 1.1350 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some recovery could be seen first. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1327) will pave the way back to 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

General Trend:

• Samsung Electronics declines on outlook comments
• Chinese equities rise in early trading after recent losses; Market focal points include PMI, trade talks and corporate earnings
• Standard Chartered rises over 5% after announcing Q1 results and buyback
• Telecom equipment firm ZTE declines over 5% post earnings
• Chinese pork producer WH Group rises over 5% post earnings
• China’s Tianqi Lithium drops, Q1 net down ~83% y/y
• Rusal reported Q1 aluminum production -1.6% q/q, noted aluminum prices came under pressure and trends to continue in Q2
• Virgin Australia to delay Boeing 737 Max 8 deliveries to 2025, convert certain 737 MAX 8 planes to 737 MAX 10s
• India’s Yes Bank declines over 25% after reporting a Q4 loss
• Google drops over 7% in afterhours trading, Q1 Rev missed ests
• US equity markets closed mostly higher, S&P 500 hit intraday all-time high
• According to some analysts, the China April PMI data does not change the monetary policy outlook (US financial press)
• US/China expected to begin trade talks in China on April 30th (Tuesday)
• US companies expected to report earnings on Tuesday morning include Charter Communications, Cummins, ConoccoPhillips , Eaton, GE, Corning, GM, Ingersoll-Rand, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Merck, Oshkosh, Paccar, Pfizer, Seagate
• Golden Week continues in Japan

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.1%
• NCM.AU Reports Q3 gold production 623.1K oz v 576K y/y at AISC $738 v $826/oz y/y, Affirms FY19 production
• BPT.AU Reports Q3 production 7.23 MMBOE v 6.57 y/y; sales volumes 7.52 MMBOE v 6.81 y/y; Rev 470M v 393M y/y
• VAH.AU Making changes to its Boeing 737 Max order: To defer delivery of first Boeing 737 MAX plane from Nov 2019 to July 2021
• (NZ) New Zealand Apr ANZ Business Confidence: -37.5 v -3.08 prior; Activity Outlook: 7.1 v 6.3 prior
• (AU) Australia Mar Private Sector Credit M/M 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.0%e

Japan

• Nikkei 225 closed for the week
• (JP) IMF Furusawa says Japan will lose trust if sales tax increase is delayed - Japanese Press

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.1%
• 005930.KR Reports final Q1 (KRW) Net 5.1T v 4.7Te, Op 6.23T v 6.2T prelim; Rev 52.4T v 52.0T prelim; Has not decided on CAPEX plan for 2019, no comment on foldable phone recall; Cuts FY19 outlook
• (KR) South Korea May Business Manufacturing Survey: 77 v 76 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: 77 v 76 prior
• (KR) South Korea Mar Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.0%e
• (KR) South Korea Mar Retail Sales M/M: +3.3% v -0.5% prior

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -0.2%; Shanghai Composite opened -0.3%
• (CN) CHINA APR MANUFACTURING PMI (OFFICIAL): 50.1 V 50.6E; Non-manufacturing PMI: 54.3 v 55.0e; Composite PMI: 53.4 v 54.0 prior
• (CN) CHINA APR CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.2 V 50.9E; Export orders and employment back in contraction (below 50)
• (CN) China Finance Ministry (MOF): No longer limit tenors of local govt bonds; local govts should strive to complete issuances of new local govt bonds by end of September
• (CN) White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: next two weeks should give clarity on US-China trade talks; we are 'pretty close' to a deal
• 2282.HK Reports Q1 (HKD) Net 0.7B v 0.6B y/y, Rev 5.8B v 4.7B y/y
• 486.HK Reports Q1 Aluminum production 928Kt, -1.6% q/q; sales 896K tons (+2.2% q/q and -7.2% y/y)
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips reverse repo operations for 7th consecutive session: Net: CNY0B drain v CNY0B drain prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7286 v 6.7310 prior
• (CN) The premium that China property developers pay for land rose in Q1, notes eased credit conditions and purchase requirements - financial press

North America

• (US) Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein resigns, effective May 11th
• Cummins [CMI]: Reviewing emissions certification for pickup trucks, follows conversations with the US EPA and CARB
• WAGE Confirms Receipt of Proposal from HealthEquity

Europe

• (UK) PM May said to be facing a grassroots vote demanding she resign - Sun
• STAN.UK Reports Q1 Net $818M v $803M y/y; adj Pretax $1.4B v $1.3B y/y, Op Income $3.8B v $3.9B y/y; announces $1.0B buyback

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, closed, ASX 200 -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.3%; Kospi -0.5%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.3%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 flat
• EUR 1.1194-1.1179 ; JPY 111.69-111.55 ; AUD 0.7069-0.7033 ;NZD 0.6682-0.6655
• Gold +0.3% at $1,284/oz; Crude Oil -0.1% at $63.43/brl; Copper flat at $2,894/lb

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1156; (P) 1.1173; (R1) 1.1200; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1111 temporary low is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.