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EURUSD Still Bearish
The euro currency is back under downside pressure against the US dollar in early Monday trade after finding strong technical resistance from the 1.1174 level. Weakness below the 1.1135 support level should trigger the next round of technical selling in the EURUSD pair. Traders now await the release of key inflation data from the United States, ahead of Wednesday FOMC interest rate decision.
The EURUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.1135 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1100 and 1.1050 levels.
If the EURUSD pair trades above 1.1135 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 1.1174 and 1.1200 levels.
GBPUSD Neutral Intraday Bias
The British pound is attempting to trade above the 1.2900 level against the US dollar in early week trade as technical indicators continue to correct from oversold conditions. The GBPUSD pair has so far found resistance from the 1.2943 level, although the 1.2975 level is critical weekly resistance. To the downside, weakness below the 1.2900 is likely to trigger a technical test of the 1.2865 level.
The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2900 level, key support is then found at the 1.2865 and 1.2840 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades above 1.2900 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 1.2943 and 1.2975 levels.
Crude Extends Declines As Trump Increases Pressure On OPEC
The price of crude oil declined slightly after Trump asked OPEC members to boost production. On Friday, he sent a tweet saying that he had talked with some OPEC members, who were ‘in agreement’ about raising crude production. However, according to OPEC secretary general, no such conversation had taken place. He said that the cartel will determine whether to boost production in their meeting in March. For months, Donald Trump has criticised OPEC for cutting production, with the aim of boosting prices. However, some of his actions, like cutting-off Iran and putting sanctions on Venezuela have contributed to the high prices.
The euro rose slightly against the USD ahead of a busy week. Today, Europe will release some data that will help measure the performance of the economy. The industrial sentiment is expected to decline to minus 2.0 from the previous -1.7. The services sentiment is expected to decline to 11.1 from the previous 11.3 while the consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged at minus 7.9. The business and consumer survey is expected to drop to 105 from the previous 105.5. Meanwhile, Belgium will release its CPI data.
Today, traders will receive the PCE data ahead of the Fed’s interest rates data and NFP data. The core PCE price index for March is expected to rise by 1.7%. On a MoM basis, the core PCE data is expected to rise to 0.1%. In March, personal income numbers are expected to rise by 0.4% from the previous 0.2%. The personal spending is expected to rise by 0.7%. This data will come a few days after the US released better-than-expected first-quarter GDP numbers. This week, the Fed will make its decision while the Labor Department will release the jobs data.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair rose slightly today to a high of 1.1156 from last week’s low of 1.1110. On the hourly chart, the price is slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The volumes are relatively low while the money flow index has declined to a low of 36. The pair will likely continue to consolidate along these prices ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
XTI/USD
The XTI/USD pair extended Friday’s declines to reach an intraday low of 62.9. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. The two averages are doing an intersection, which could lead to lower prices. The RSI has dropped to below 30 while the Stochastic Indicator has started to move up. The pair could resume its upward trend because OPEC is unlikely to yield to Trump’s pressure.
EUR/GBP
In the past few weeks, the EUR/GBP pair has been in consolidation mode as shown on the 30-minute chart below. The pair is trading along the 0.8626 level, which is slightly above last week’s low of 0.8620. The price is slightly below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. The Average True Range (ATR) has continued to drop. Today, the pair will likely react to the data from the EU and a statement by Governor Mark Carney.
Crude Oil Key Resistance At 63.60
Pivot (invalidation): 63.60
Our preference Short positions below 63.60 with targets at 62.30 & 61.95 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 63.60 look for further upside with 64.35 & 64.80 as targets.
Comment As Long as the resistance at 63.60 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 62.30 remains high.
Silver Spot The Bias Remains Bullish
Pivot (invalidation): 15.0000
Our preference Long positions above 15.0000 with targets at 15.1100 & 15.1800 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 15.0000 look for further downside with 14.9600 & 14.8900 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
Gold Spot Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 1282.50
Our preference Long positions above 1282.50 with targets at 1290.00 & 1295.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1282.50 look for further downside with 1279.00 & 1274.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
S&P 500 Further Upside
Pivot (invalidation): 2930.50
Our preference Long positions above 2930.50 with targets at 2945.50 & 2953.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2930.50 look for further downside with 2926.50 & 2920.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
DAX Bullish Bias Above 12270.00
Pivot (invalidation): 12270.00
Our preference Long positions above 12270.00 with targets at 12350.00 & 12400.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 12270.00 look for further downside with 12230.00 & 12189.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed.
USD/TRY Towards 5.9800
Pivot (invalidation): 5.9260
Our preference Long positions above 5.9260 with targets at 5.9600 & 5.9800 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 5.9260 look for further downside with 5.9000 & 5.8600 as targets.
Comment A support base at 5.9260 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
AUD/USD Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7035
Our preference Long positions above 0.7035 with targets at 0.7060 & 0.7080 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7035 look for further downside with 0.7020 & 0.7005 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
