Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1113; (P) 1.1144; (R1) 1.1175; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1111 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3470

Our preference Short positions below 1.3470 with targets at 1.3445 & 1.3430 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3470 look for further upside with 1.3495 & 1.3515 as targets.

Comment A break below 1.3445 would trigger a drop towards 1.3430.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.0200

Our preference Short positions below 1.0200 with targets at 1.0180 & 1.0170 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.0200 look for further upside with 1.0220 & 1.0230 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 111.70

Our preference Short positions below 111.70 with targets at 111.45 & 111.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 111.70 look for further upside with 111.85 & 112.00 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 111.70 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 111.45 remains high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2912; (R1) 1.2948; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2865 temporary low. upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3019 minor resistance to bring another decline. Current development suggests that rebound from 1.2391 has completed at 1.3381. On the downside, below 1.2865 will target 1.2773 support to confirm this bearish case. On the upside, however, break of 1.3019 resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for recovery first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) halted after hitting 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 could have completed after just missing 50% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.338. Such rebound could be a correction to fall from 1.4376 only. Break of 1.2773 support will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2391. Break of 1.2391 will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946 (2016 low).

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2915

Our preference Long positions above 1.2915 with targets at 1.2945 & 1.2960 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.2915 look for further downside with 1.2895 & 1.2865 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1145

Our preference Long positions above 1.1145 with targets at 1.1175 & 1.1190 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1145 look for further downside with 1.1130 & 1.1120 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0176; (P) 1.0206; (R1) 1.0229; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0237 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.0130 minor support to bring rise resumption. Prior break of 1.0128 resistance confirmed resumption of up trend from 0.9186. On the upside, above 1.0237 will target 100% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0124 from 0.9879 at 1.0287, and then 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 1.0130 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper retreat first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

• Rates: US Treasuries extend rally after Q1 GDP figures
  A mixed US GDP report couldn't change the tide on the (US) bond market, extending US Treasuries' gains. Spanish Socialists won parliamentary elections this weekend, avoiding a shift to (extreme) right. Spanish bonds might profit somewhat with the election risk out of the way. This week's eco calendar includes with Fed meeting (Wednesday) and US payrolls (Friday).
• Currencies: Technical and fundamental EUR/USD picture to change this week?
  EUR/USD quickly erased a knee-jerk reaction to US GDP figures last Friday. The report was no game-changer, leaving the technical and fundamental picture intact. Today's calendar probably won't trigger any material market moves either. Investors start eying the high profile events later this week that do have the potential to change the pair's fortunes.

The Sunrise Headlines

• US stock markets overturned initial weakness following a mixed Q1 GDP report with main indices closing 0.3% to 0.5% higher. Asian equity markets show a more mixed picture this morning with South Korea
• Spanish Socialists won general elections. Sanchez' party assembled 123 seats in parliament with coalition options on the left (Podemos and support of small parties) and centre (Ciudadanos). Extreme-right (Vox; 24) entered parliament.
• A tweet by US President Trump pulled Brent crude below $72/barrel. He boasted about consensus between “Saudi Arabia and others' about increasing oil flow.
• Rating agency S&P affirmed the Italian BBB rating, but the outlook remains negative. Risks included rising government deficits/debt, a deterioration in external financial conditions and policy changes which weaken potential growth.
• Japanese markets are closed starting today up until Monday May 6. The traditional “golden week' holidays are this year extended by the Coronation of the new emperor.
• CFTC data show that investors turned net long in Eurodollar futures contracts for the first time since June 2016 amid expectations of a Fed rate cut by the end of this year/early next year.
• Today's eco calendar contains April EMU EC confidence data. March personal income/spending figures and PCE deflators are scheduled for release in the US. Alphabet reports Q1 earnings and BoE governor Carney speaks

Currencies: Technical And Fundamental EUR/USD Picture To Change This Week?

US growth no game-changer for USD

US growth came in at a strong 3.2% QoQ (annualized) last Friday, crushing 2.3% market expectations and up from 2.2% in the last quarter. The details however were rather unconvincing, showing a meagre contribution from private consumption and a boost by inventories and net exports. EUR/USD quickly erased knee-jerk losses and even managed a marginally higher close at 1.1151 (up from 1.1132). USD/JPY reacted similarly and closed only slightly lower at 111.58 vs. 111.63 the day before.

Asian markets are trading mixed after new record (closing) highs for US equities on Friday. Japanese markets are closed through May 6 as the Golden Week holidays kick off. USD/JPY is trading stable. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.1158 after the socialists won the Spanish elections with reasonable coalition options.

Today's US data (personal income and spending, PCE deflator) are probably of secondary importance as they can be abstracted from Friday's US growth report. EMU economic confidence is set for a limited decline from 105.5 to 105.0. We see risks skewed to the downside. This would limit any euro recovery from the recent lows below the 1.1177 MT range bottom it has been trading at since the poor EMU (PMI, German IFO) data. Losses in EUR/USD will likely stay limited as well though. We don't see a strong case for a sustained break below the 1.1110/19 support due to the important economic events that are due later this week (Fed, ISM's, payrolls, EMU GDP and CPI). US Q1 growth hasn't changed the (technical and fundamental) picture for EUR/USD but this week's eco calendar might.

Lack of important data and progress in brexit resulted in sideways sterling trading last Friday. Rating agency S&P kept UK's AA rating with a negative outlook as the risk of a no-deal brexit persists. EUR/GBP was little impressed and closed unchanged at 0.863. “Difficult' talks between May and Labour's Corbyn continued this week in an effort to avoid holding European elections but a breakthrough soon is unlikely. We expect more sideways trading in the run up to a back-loaded event calendar (UK PMI's, Bank of England) as both euro and sterling weakness keep each other balanced.

Technical and fundamental EUR/USD picture to change after this week's data?

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.33; (P) 111.68; (R1) 111.92; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today's recovery. A short term top should be in place at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 112.40 holds. On the downside, break of 110.84 support add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. However, decisive break of 112.40 will confirm rise resumption for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.