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Japan’s Unemployment Rate Advanced More-Than-Estimated In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.54% against the JPY and closed at 111.56.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.64, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in March, compared to a rate of 2.3% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged unemployment rate to rise to 2.4%. Moreover, the nation's retail trade climbed 1.0% on an annual basis in March, higher than market consensus for a gain of 0.8%. In the previous month, retail trade had recorded a rise of 0.4%. Also, the large retailer's sales unexpectedly advanced by 0.6% on a monthly basis in March, defying market anticipation for a fall to 1.0%. In the preceding month, large retailer's sales had recorded a decline of 1.8%.

On the other hand, Japan's flash industrial production dropped 4.6% on a yearly basis in March, declining at its quickest pace in almost five years and surpassing market expectations for a fall of 3.8%. In the prior month, industrial production had registered a decline of 1.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.34, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.04. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.32.

Looking forward, traders would await Japan's housing starts for March, slated to release in a while.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 1.0201.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0199, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0185, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0172. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0220, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0242.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Business Barometer Climbed In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.11% against the CAD and closed at 1.3481.

Data revealed that Canada's CFIB business barometer rose to a level of 56.7 in April, following a reading of 55.9 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3477, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3458, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3440. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3506, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3536.

Moving ahead, traders would keep an eye on Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI and gross domestic product, scheduled to release next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Australia’s PPI Rose In 1Q 2019

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.10% against the USD and closed at 0.7019.

LME Copper prices declined 1.0% or $62.0/MT to $6375.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.1% or $2.0/MT to $1852.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7027, with the AUD trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close, extending its previous session gains.

Overnight data indicated that Australia's producer price index (PPI) rose 1.9% on an annual basis in 1Q 2019, compared to a gain of 2.0% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.6999, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6972. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7043, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.706.

In absence of key economic releases in Australia today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.20% against the USD and closed at USD1279.30 per ounce, amid weakness in US dollar and US equities.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1282.40, with gold trading 0.24% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1277.60, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1272.80. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1286.00, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1289.60.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at USD14.99 per ounce, supported by gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.03, with silver trading 0.27% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.93, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.83. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.16.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower, Ahead Of Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 1.11% against the USD and closed at USD65.00 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Poland, Germany and Slovakia suspended imports of Russian oil, following severe contamination through the Druzhba pipeline.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 64.84, with oil trading 0.25% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, amid hopes that OPEC will increase supplies to compensate for a decline in exports from Iran following tightening of sanctions on Tehran by the US.

The pair is expected to find support at 64.27, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 63.71. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 65.84, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 66.85.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3470; (P) 1.3495; (R1) 1.3507; More...

With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.3521. intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral for consolidation first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3399 minor support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.3521 will resume the rise from 1.3068 and target 1.3664 high and then 1.3685 key fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3221). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6995; (P) 0.7009; (R1) 0.7031; More...

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary top is in place at 0.6988 in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7081 minor resistance to bring another decline. on the downside, break of 0.6988 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1113; (P) 1.1138; (R1) 1.1157; More.....

EUR/USD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Down trend from 1.2555 has just resumed. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895. On the upside, above 1.1192 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 is now resuming with break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Medium term also remains with EUR/USD staying well below falling 55 week EMA. Next downside target will be 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.