Sample Category Title

The USD/JPY will need to re-break above the 112-112.25 resistance zone before a bullish continuation is likely. The next target could be the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W. If price manages to break below the support trend line (blue), then the uptrend could be over and a larger bearish retracement would be the most likely scenario.

The USD/JPY bullish breakout made a strong bounce at the resistance trend line (red) near 112.50. The direction of the next price swing will depend on the next breakout: will price be able to break again above the 100% Fibonacci level or will it break below the support trend line (blue)?

The USDJPY pair fell in Asia and extends weakness at the beginning of European session on Thursday after Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and said it would keep ultra-low rates at least until Q1 2020.

The central bank also announced it will keep highly accommodative monetary policy, but lowered inflation projection, saying that 2% target won't be reached until early 2022.

The pair pulled back from new 2019 high at 112.40, posted after strong rally in late Wednesday's trading, as traders rushed into US Treasuries.

Recent congestion floor (111.65, reinforced by rising 20SMA) came under pressure again and probes below would risk test of pivotal supports at 111.51/37 (200SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 109.71/112.40) loss of which would generate bearish signal.

Weakening momentum ad south-heading daily indicators add to scenario, as the pair is on track for the third consecutive failure to close above 200WMA (currently at 111.91), break of which is needed to signal continuation of larger uptrend from 104.59 (2019 low).

Cracked Fibo barrier at 112.19 (76.4% of 114.54/104.59) and Wed's high at 112.40 mark pivotal barriers.

Res: 111.91, 112.19, 112.40, 112.60
Sup: 111.65, 111.51, 111.37, 111.20

Pivot (invalidation): 66.05

Our preference Short positions below 66.05 with targets at 65.55 & 65.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 66.05 look for further upside with 66.40 & 66.60 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6977; (P) 0.7041; (R1) 0.7077; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 0.7003 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7295. Further decline should then be seen to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. On the upside, above 0.7050 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3437; (P) 1.3479; (R1) 1.3539; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.3068 should target 1.3664 high and then 1.3685 key fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.3437 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3221). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.8300

Our preference Long positions above 14.8300 with targets at 14.9800 & 15.0800 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.8300 look for further downside with 14.7700 & 14.7300 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 1272.00

Our preference Long positions above 1272.00 with targets at 1279.50 & 1282.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1272.00 look for further downside with 1268.50 & 1266.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.78; (P) 112.09; (R1) 112.51; More...

USD/JPY spiked higher to 112.40 but retreated sharply. Intraday bias remains neutral first with focus on 112.13 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0175; (P) 1.0198; (R1) 1.0227; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0230 temporary top. Some consolidations could be seen but downside should be contained by 1.0130 minor support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.0230 will extend recent rally to 100% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0124 from 0.9879 at 1.0287, and then 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 1.0130 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper retreat first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

Asian shares were under pressure this morning as disappointing economic data from Germany and South Korea revived concerns over slowing global growth. Although earnings have been generally positive so far, the sustainability of any rally fuelled by strong earnings should be questioned, given how geopolitical risks and lingering growth concerns continue to strain risk sentiment.The cautious mood from Asia is likely to rollover into Europe, and possibly Wall Street this afternoon, as investors adopt a guarded approach to riskier assets.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan as widely expected kept interest rates unchanged at -0.1 percent, while also statingthat it will maintain these extremely low rates until the Spring of 2020. The central bank also lowered its GDP and CPI forecasts for Fiscal Year 2019, while downgrading its view on business sentiment.

Markets however, believe the BoJ can't tighten policy until Q4 2020, given that Japan's inflation data remains well below the central bank's 2 percent target. Policymakers are also bracing for the economic uncertainties posed by a consumption tax hike slated for October that threatens to crimp domestic consumption. At the same time, the world's third-largest economy still has to contend with persistent external headwinds, such as slowing global growth and rising trade tensions between major economies.

This confluence of domestic and external factors is weighing on the Yen, which is already Asia's second worst-performer so far in 2019.Should headwinds grow stronger for the Japanese economy, perhaps forcing the BoJ to ease policy further before any tightening can be done, the Yen may extend losses against the US Dollar over the course of the year.

Currency spotlight – US Dollar

A vulnerable Yen, along with declines in the Euro, have pushed the Dollar Index above the psychological 98 level for the first time since May 2017.

Investors nowawaitthe upcoming US Q1 GDP announcement, with the US economy standing in stark contrast to what Europe is experiencing currently, the latter's outlook made more dire by the unexpected decline in confidence from Germany and France.

This divergence is providing support for the Greenback, and it could get another leg up, should the USGDPreading exceed market expectations of 2.2 percent on Friday. However, appetite for the Dollar is likely to take a hit if the GDP data fails to meet expectations.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

The Dollar's year-to-date climb has kept Gold rooted near its lowest level in 2019, below the psychologically-important $1,280 level, as markets keep an eye on the $1,265 support line.

It's proving increasingly difficult for Gold bulls to prove their case under present market conditions, thanks to a broadly stronger Dollar, equity markets hanging on to most of their year-to-date gains and cautious optimism over US-China trade talks.

However, dark clouds still linger over the global economy, and datapoints that signal a turn for the worse for the worldwide context could spark a massive rebound for Gold back towards the $1,300 handle.