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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0156; (P) 1.0194; (R1) 1.0236; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally is in progress for 100% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0124 from 0.9879 at 1.0287, and then 1.0342 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0130 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.66; (P) 111.85; (R1) 112.04; More...

USD/JPY is staying in tight range for the moment and intraday bias stays neutral first. Focus remains on 112.13 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3362; (P) 1.3403; (R1) 1.3463; More...

USD/CAD rises to as high as 1.3456 so far and focus is now on 1.3467 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.3068. In that case, further rally would be seen back to retest 1.3664 high and then 1.3685 key fibonacci level. Rejection by 1.3467 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from there. But downside should be contained by 1.3250 support in that case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3212). Thus, even though upside momentum and structure are unconvincing, further rise is still in favor. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should indicate bearish reversal, after rejection by 1.3793, and bring deeper fall to 1.3068 support for confirmation.

Market movers today

Today, the April German Ifo data will give us the first indications of where German Q2 GDP growth is headed - indeed the Ifo is typically a more reliable leading indicator of GDP than the PMIs. In contrast to the weak data points from manufacturing PMIs, the German Ifo showed its first rebound in March since August 2018. Will that be confirmed this month?

Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank's new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M. We don't think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its 'on hold' and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.

Tomorrow morning the BoJ is due to wrap up its two-day policy meeting. We expect the BoJ to keep its 'QQE with yield curve control' policy unchanged and we expect it to move steadily forward with the current policy for the near future. Regarding the updated inflation and growth forecasts, we expect the BoJ to keep its projections largely unchanged. A related question is whether the BoJ expects that it can meet its target within the next two to three years.

No major Scandi events scheduled for today.

Selected market news

Following healthy gains in US equities, risk sentiment was dented in the Asian session which lacked the earnings support the US enjoyed. Yesterday a stream of strong corporate earnings reports came out with notably Twitter beating revenue estimates, leaving its stock up more than 15% on the day; Hasbro and Coco-Cola also published strong earnings and helped underpin sentiment. Around 80% of companies included in S&P500 have so far reported better than expected results in this reporting round, supporting sentiment despite continuous weak US data. The S&P500 closed at a record high, i.e. above the 2933 mark. Separately, weak Australian inflation overnight weighed on AUD. Oil prices continue to linger at year-highs with Brent steadily around the USD74/bbl mark. The USD index strengthened even as Fed pricing shifted in a more dovish direction. US 10 treasury yields under pressure eyeing the 2.55% level again.

Meanwhile, trade talks are due to resume next Tuesday when according to the White House US negotiators Lighthizer and Mnuchin go to Beijing next week. Reportedly the aim is to reach a draft deal by May. Further, China's vice premier Liu is set to go to Washington for talks early May. Hence, the US and China are seemingly targeting to land a trade deal by the end of May. A key outstanding issue seems to be the enforcement mechanism of the deal contents

General Trend:

• Financial and Property shares decline in Shanghai, PBOC denied rumor related to targeted RRR cut
• China telecom earnings in focus: China Mobile declines after Q1 results, Unicom rises
• China’s Ping An Bank rises after Q1 profits rose ~13% y/y
• Nikkei 225 trades flat amid focus on corporate earnings and declines in financials; Fanuc and Canon expected to report results after market close
• Various utilities decline in Japan on regulatory concerns
• Nissan declines on speculation that the company may cut its FY outlook
• LG Display declines as lower prices hurt operating results
• Steelmaker Posco’s profits decline on lower steel prices, affirmed FY sales forecast
• Australian equities out perform on rate cut bets, REITs and Utilities outperform
• Bellamy’s rises over 16% in Australia after receiving a regulatory approval in China
• Aussie yields drop over 15bps on weaker CPI, some are now focused on the May 7th RBA policy decision
• PBoC confirms targeted MLF operation as markets await direction regarding RRR cut
• Korean Won (KRW) remains weaker amid some focus on dividend related flows , South Korea’s extra budget in line with market speculation
• South Korea prelim Q1 GDP data is due on Thursday
• Brent Crude Futures decline after recent gains
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) is due to meet April 24-25th
• Japan Fin Min Aso is expected to discuss forex issues with US Treasury Sec Mnuchin this week, Aso is expected to travel to the US on April 25th (Thursday)
• US companies expected to report results on Wed morning include Boeing, Biogen, Caterpillar, Dominos Pizza, Moody’s, AT&T

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.1%
• (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.5%E; CPI Trimmed Mean (core) Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e (3rd consecutive reading below target and matches lowest level since Q3 2016)
• (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: 119.5 v 115.3 prior
• (AU) Australia Mar Skilled Vacancies M/M: -1.5% v -1.2% prior
• AJX.AU Receives approval from US EPA for the manufacture and sale of ALEXIFLAM NF in the US

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.4%
• 6594.JP Reports Q4 Net ¥7.79B v ¥36.9B y/y; Op ¥9.25B v ¥20.9Be, Rev ¥364.0B v ¥382.2B y/y; cites ¥38.8B in temporary expenses for decline in Op
• (JP) Japan Mar PPI Services Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
• 6501.JP Acquires JR Automation for $1.43B from Crestview Partners

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.4%
• Korean Won (KRW) trades at lowest level since Sept 2017, some have cited repatriation related to stock dividend payments
• (KR) South Korea Fin Min: Announces KRW6.7T extra budget (in line with press speculation); Expected to add 0.1% to 2019 GDP; Will issue KRW3.6T in treasury bonds to fund extra budget
• (KR) North Korea leader Kim on his way to Russia, expected to enter via train later today in Vladivostok where he will meet President Putin – Nikkei
• 034220.KR Reports Q1 (KRW) Net -62.6B v -101.5Be; Op -132.0B v -96.3Be; Rev 5.88T v 5.8Te
• 005490.KR Reports Q1 (KRW) Net 778B v 732Be; Op 1.2T v 1.2Te; Rev 16.0T v 16.5Te
• 005930.KR Investing KRW133.0T into logic chips by 2030

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.5%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.2%
• (CN) CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY267.4B V CNY257.5B PRIOR 1-YEAR TARGETED MEDIUM-TERM LENDING FACILITY (TMLF) AT 3.15% v 3.15% PRIOR (2nd use of TMLF)
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7205 v 6.7082 prior
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips reverse repo operations for the third consecutive session; Net: CNY0 v drain CNY40B prior
• HUAWEI.CN UK PM May grants Huawei approval to work on UK's 5G network rollout - UK's Telegraph

Other Asia

North America

• (US) SEMI: Mar North America Billings: $1.83B v $1.86B prior, m/m: -1.9% v -1.7% prior; y/y: -24.6% v -23% prior
• BA Said to target receiving FAA approval for software upgrade by as early as the third week of May - financial press
• (US) Trump said to consider waiving US ship mandate related to natural gas, the report is referring to the Jones Act waiver - US financial press
• TSLA To re-introduce lower entry price for Model S and Model X by resuming standard range option
• (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +6.9M v -3.1M prior
• (US) White House: Lighthizer and Mnuchin to travel to China, trade talks to start on April 30th; talks to cover IP, tech transfer and agriculture

Europe

• (UK) Cabinet ministers reportedly urging PM May to end talks with Labour Party and force a fourth Commons showdown on Brexit deal next week - The Sun

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, -0.3%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Hang Seng -0.7%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -1.1%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.2%, Dax -0.3%; FTSE100 -0.2%
• EUR 1.1229-1.1208 ; JPY 111.98-111.80 ; AUD 0.7104-0.7030 ;NZD 0.6660-0.6613
• Gold -0.2% at $1,271/oz; Crude Oil -0.5% at $65.97/brl; Copper -0.2% at $2.888/lb

The GBP/USD seems to be building multiple ABC zigzag patterns (green) which could indicate a potential leading diagonal within wave 1 (purple). For the moment bearish momentum is dominating the chart and a break below the 100% Fibonacci level could indicate a continuation towards the next Fibonacci targets.

The GBP/USD bearish breakout made the previous wave 4 pattern unlikely. The current wave outlook favors a bearish count with a potential wave 5 (dark red) within wave 3 (orange) if price manages to break below the support trend line (blue).

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.34% against the USD and closed at 1.1222.

On the data front, the Euro-zone's consumer confidence index surprisingly slid to a level of -7.9 in April, defying consensus of a rise to a level of -7.0. The index had registered a reading of -7.2 in the previous month.

The US dollar gained ground against major currencies, after upbeat US new home sales data diminished worries over the country's economic slowdown.

In the US, new home sales surprisingly rose by 4.5% on monthly basis, to a level of 692.0K, marking its highest level in 1.5-years, supported by a decline in mortgage rates and house prices. New home sales had registered a revised level of 662.0K in the previous month, while the market participants had envisaged to record a level of 649.0K. Moreover, data showed that the housing price index climbed 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, undershooting market expectations for a gain of 0.5%. In the previous month, the index had registered a rise of 0.6%.

On the contrary, the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly eased to a level of 3.0 in April, defying market expectations of an unchanged reading. In the prior month, the index had recorded a reading of 10.0.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1213, with the EUR trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1183, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1153. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1252, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1291.

Going forward, investors would closely monitor Germany's Ifo business climate, expectations and current assessment, all for April, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US MBA mortgage applications will garner significant amount of traders' attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.35% against the USD and closed at 1.2936.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2932, with the GBP trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2901, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2870. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2991, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3050.

Trading trend in the Sterling today is expected to be determined by UK’s public sector net borrowing for March, scheduled to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the JPY and closed at 111.86.

In economic news, Japan's final machine tool orders tanked 28.5% on an annual basis in March, confirming the preliminary print. In the preceding month, machine tool orders had recorded a decline of 29.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.87, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.74, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.62. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.16.

Looking ahead, traders would await the Bank of Japan's April interest rate decision slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 1.0202.

Data indicated that Switzerland's M3 money supply advanced 3.5% on a yearly basis in March, following a similar rise in the prior month. Further, the nation's total sight deposits rose to a level of CHF576.9 billion in the week ended 19 April 2019, from CHF576.7 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0208, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0166, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0123. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0241, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0273.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic releases for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.