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The euro continues to trade around the 1.1300 resistance level against the US dollar in early Tuesday trade as buyers struggle to break through strong technical resistance. The Ichimoku cloud on the daily time frame is currently offering strong resistance extending to the 1.1370 level. The Ichimoku indicator on the daily time is showing that the 1.1260 level is key support below the 1.1290 level.

The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1290 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1345 and 1.1370 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades below 1.1290 level, key intraday support is found at the 1.1260 and 1.1230 support levels.

General Trend:

• Rio Tinto declines despite cutting iron ore shipments forecast, some analysts focus on impact of higher product prices
• Japanese telecom sector outperforms; Docomo specified its plans to cut mobile phone rates
• Financials in China continue to gain after better March lending data, PBOC resumed OMOs
• China property index under performs as new home prices accelerate
• Various companies comment on market outlook at Shanghai auto show
• China HNA affiliate fails to meet interest payment, triggers cross default
• PBoC Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement: Expectations of financial market has improved, to control spigot of money supply (follows better than expected March lending data)
• PBoC resumed OMO for the first time in 19 sessions, injected liquidity
• China Q1 GDP data due for release on Wed (April 17th), some analysts are looking for signs of whether growth has bottomed
• Chinese bond yields rise ahead of the Wed data
• RBA Minutes: Discussed scenario where rate cut would be appropriate, forward indicators of labor demand mixed in recent months.
• Japan Fin Min Aso: No comment on currency clause (refers to US/Japan trade talks)
• BoJ Gov Kuroda commented on regional bank tie-ups
• RBNZ Gov: Q1 CPI undershooting forecast is already factored into dovish bias (comments ahead of April 17th Q1 CPI data)
• Taiwan chipmaker Nanya expected to report earnings later today
• US companies expected to report corporate earnings on Tuesday include Bank of America, BlackRock, JNJ and UnitedHealth

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.1%
• RIO.AU Reports Q1 Pilbara iron ore shipments 69.1Mt v Mte v 80.3Mt y/y; Pilbara iron production 76.0Mt v 80.0Mte v 83.1Mt y/y; Cuts Pilbara shipments 333-343Mt (prior 338-350Mt)
• (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: 115.3 v 113.2 prior
• (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) APR MINUTES: REITERATES NOT A STRONG CASE FOR NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENT IN RATES
• (NZ) RBNZ Gov Orr: Monetary easing bias remains in place for now; Q1 CPI undershooting forecast is already factored into dovish bias; NZD is currently around its happy place

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened -0.3%
• (CN) China and Japan to start listing each other's ETFs, could start as soon as May – Nikkei
• (JP) Japan Finance Min Aso: Expect BOJ to continue efforts for price target; 2% target is important for Govt
• (JP) Japan Trade Min Motegi: Held first trade talks with Lighthizer, spirit of talks was in line with Sept agreement
• 9437.JP Cuts mobile phone rates by up to 40%; Effective Jun 15
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Inflation has been weak given tight job market – parliament
• (JP) Japan Finance Min Aso: No comment on currency clause [US Treasury Sec Mnuchin is said to have called for a currency clause to be included in a trade deal with Japan]
• (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥1.0T v ¥1.0T indicated in 0.40% (prior 0.50%) 20-yr bonds; avg yield 0.366% v 0.419% prior; bid to cover 5.10x v 4.67x prior

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.1%
• KR) Size of South Korea's extra budget to be decided during week of Apr 22nd – press
• (KR) US Sec of State Pompeo: The next summit between North Korea Kim and President Trump may happen this year
• (KR) President Trump: North Korea talks are moving along "perfectly"

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -0.2%; Shanghai Composite opened -0.4%
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market (OMO): Injects CNY40B in 7-day reverse repos v skips prior; Net: CNY40B injection v nil prior (first operation after 18 consecutive skips)
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7097 v 6.7112 prior
• (CN) China PBoC Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement: To strike balance in the prudent monetary policy; calls for further unclogging of policy transmission (after the close)
• (CN) CHINA MAR NEW HOME PRICES M/M: 0.6% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 10.6% V 10.4% PRIOR

North America

• (US) Fed’s Rosengren (moderate, voter): Fed is waiting to see evidence that inflation will reach 2% target; unemployment falling, doesn't expect recession; Balance sheet asset allocation will be topic in future FOMC discussions

Europe

• BMW.DE CFO: Sees 2019 China sales growth 5-10% y/y - speaking at Shanghai Motor Show

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.6%; Shanghai Composite +1.1%; Kospi +0.1%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax +0.2%; FTSE100 +0.2%
• EUR 1.1314-1.1292; JPY 112.05-111.88; AUD 0.7176-0.7139 ;NZD 0.6770-0.6741
• Gold -0.2% at $1,288/oz; Crude Oil -0.1% at $63.36/brl; Copper flat at $2.933/lb

Market movers today

In Germany, focus is on the ZEW reading for April today, ahead of the important PMIs on Thursday. After a difficult start to the year, we already saw rays of light in the March ZEW reading with the expectations-current conditions spread turning positive for the first time since 2012. In April, we see scope for further upside for the expectations component in light of better recent data not least out of China, while we expect the current situation assessment to stabilise around the current level.

In the UK, the jobs report for February is due out, which will likely point to solid employment growth, after GDP growth surprised on the upside last week.

In the US, markets will keep an eye on the industrial production figures for March ahead of the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth to be released next week.

Selected market news

Equities in Asia stopped rallying below their nine-month high as markets faced sourer bank earnings in the US on Monday. In the US, stocks slid from their six-month highs. More US bank earnings are due out today. There have been some signs that the global economy is likely to slow down softly, which is keeping the markets from falling sharply.

In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing survey posted a slightly stronger-than-expected recovery in April. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voter in 2019) reiterated his concerns about moderate inflation, admitting hypothetically that rates could be on hold until autumn 2020. Markets also remain fuelled by expectations that a benign China-US deal would be agreed pretty soon. US Treasury data showed that China increased its holdings of US government debt for a third month in a row, reaching USD1.13tn in February 2019. The second-biggest holder, Japan, also raised its US government debt up to USD1.07tn.

The Brent oil price has hovered around USD71/bbl as global supply is becoming tighter on shrinking output in Iran and Venezuela. The US is preparing to impose tougher sanctions on those nations soon. Markets also fear that the escalating civil war in Libya is set to affect oil production in the country.

In the US Congress, Democrats issued "friendly subpoenas" to several banks to attain documents that could prove other countries aimed to influence US politics. This hints at further escalation of Congressional probes into US President Donald Trump's finances and interaction with Russia.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR slightly declined against the USD and closed at 1.1303.

In the US data showed that the US NY Empire State manufacturing index climbed to a level of 10.1 in April, surpassing market consensus for a gain to a level of 8.0. The index had registered a reading of 3.7 in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1299, with the EUR trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1288, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1276. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1316, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1332.

Going forward, traders would keep an eye on the Euro-zone’s ZEW survey economic sentiment index for April and construction output for February along with Germany’s ZEW survey indices for April, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US industrial production and manufacturing production, both for March followed by the NAHB housing market index for April, will garner significant amount of investor’s attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.3100, after Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt made positive comments on Brexit negotiations.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3087, with the GBP trading 0.10% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3071, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3055. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3111, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3135.

Looking ahead, traders would closely monitor UK’s average weekly earnings and the ILO unemployment rate, both for February, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 111.99.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.96, with the USD trading marginally lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.79. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.06, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.17.

Moving ahead, traders would await Japan’s trade balance data for March, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the CHF and closed at 1.0039.

On the macro front, Switzerland's producer and import price index declined 0.2% on an annual basis in March, at par with market expectations. The index had recorded a fall of 0.7% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's total sight deposits dropped to a level of CHF567.7 billion in the week ended 12 April 2019, from CHF576.3 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0040, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0016, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9993. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0056, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0073.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic events for further directions.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.36% against the CAD and closed at 1.3373.

Data indicated that the Canada's existing home sales rose 0.9% on a monthly basis in March, undershooting market expectations for an advance of 2.0%. Existing home sales had recorded a drop of 9.1% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3386, with the USD trading 0.10% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3324, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3263. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3420, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3455.

Trading trend in the Loonie today, is expected to be determined by Canada's manufacturing shipments for February, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD marginally declined against the USD and closed at 0.7170.

LME Copper prices declined 0.5% or $34.0/MT to $6456.0/MT. Aluminium prices trading flat at $1843.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7147, with the AUD trading 0.32% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, following dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policymakers.

The RBA, in its April meeting minutes, indicated that there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. However, a rate cut would be appropriate, if inflation remained low and unemployment rose.

Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, new home prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in March, compared to 0.5% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7131, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7114. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7173, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7198.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold slightly rose against the USD and closed at USD1290.90 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1288.30, with gold trading 0.20% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1284.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1281.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1292.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1296.70.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.