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May’s Latest Brexit Loss Marks More Political Turmoil Ahead For Pound

Whatis it going to take to appease UK law makers on Brexit? Prime Minister Theresa May clearly hasn't been able to find a solution to that pressing conundrum, after two years of draining negotiations with the European Union.

May's 'improved' Brexit deal was soundly rejected yet again by Parliament on Tuesday evening, marking yet another defeat for the Prime Minister. The signs are by no indication clear as to what will happen next and traders are likely sitting at their desks once again preparing for thereality that uncertainty still lies ahead. There will be another round of political turmoil for the United Kingdom, with only 16 days remaining until it is scheduled to leave the European Union at time of writing. This is what we can say at this stage, but all else remains unclear as to what could happen next.

What those in the market need to prepare for on Wednesday is another critical vote scheduled to take place in the United Kingdom. MPs will vote later as to whether to block the United Kingdom from leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March. This means that traders might be encouraged to price in a few alternative scenarios, including the Pound dropping fast on the prospect of a no-deal Brexit that is seen as a major threat to disrupting many aspects of the UK economy, or alternatively, that the 29 March deadline will be extended. The latter might be seen as a positive one for the Pound in some aspects, however it was to a degree already priced into the valuation of the Pound a few weeks back.

Delaying the 29 March deadline might now be viewed by traders as 'kicking the can down the road' and there is no indication at all that delaying Brexit will not mean the same situation will repeat itself, so investors should brace themselves that thehypothetical outcome of delaying Brexit is still somewhat Pound-negative. A delayed Brexit is after all still distracting when it comes to prolonging uncertainty, so a potential delay does not mean markets should expect buyers to jump into Pound trades.

The most optimistic scenario for the Pound would of course be if Brexit didn't happen at all, but all investors should forget about this potential hypothetical outcome for the time being.

There is too much uncertainty around what is potentially ahead for the United Kingdom, including unpredictability on what can happen on a day-to-day basis in Parliament, so no traders should be exposing themselves at this point to an optimistic scenario that Brexit will not happen at all. This shouldn't be factored into market expectations right now. There is just too much uncertainty and the clock is ticking fast on the threat that the UK could crash out of Europe in 16 days without a deal.

We have already seen this week that the Pound's 2.2% rally has proved to be a false dawn, which ultimately led to the GBPUSD quickly plummeting back to 1.30 before then bounding off what is proving to be a psychologically-important level for the currency pair.This is why traders should remain cautious ahead of Pound trades.

No clear-cut path in Brexit drama – what could happen next?

Markets are bracing for even more twists this week. On Wednesday, the House of Commons will vote on whether to proceed with a no-deal Brexit and crash out of the European Union in just 16 days, which is the default event as things currently stand. Should lawmakers press on with this much-feared, worst-case scenario, markets could be in for a shock and the Cablecould unwind gains since as far back as 2017 and open a quick path back to 1.20.

However, the likelier scenario according to market expectations is for lawmakers to vote against a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday, meaning that the United Kingdom would be heading towardsthe likelihood that Theresa May asks for a 29 March extension. This does present a potential opportunity for the Pound to bounce back to 1.32. The advance in the Sterling earlier this week does suggest that markets have already pricing an extension into the Pound. It should also be noted that a request for an extension is by no means something that will be automatically granted.

The Brexit extension however translates into prolonged uncertainty for investors, businesses, voters and all other stakeholders, whose patience has already been severely tested. A new timeline and deal would then have to be negotiated with the European Union. As recent history has shown, this will not be a straightforward affair.

Also, a second referendum could be on the cards. While such an event may give the UK government a fresh mandate, UK politicians may then have to face the wrath of voters. No matter where you look, there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut path in getting to the other side of this Brexit maze.

Brexit remains primary driver for Pound

Besides taking its toll on UK-EU ties, Brexit drama may also throw up domestic political risks. The current Prime Minister's tenure may be drawing to a close, given the political setbacks seen in recent months. This potentially creates another layer of concern surrounding the outlook on the Sterling.

Political noise has relegated the UK's economic fundamentals to the backseat when it comes to what is driving the Pound, as the currency continues being buffeted by Brexit-related events.

Markets are certainly clamoring for clarity on Brexit. Unfortunately, this major overhang doesn't look likeit's clearing up anytime soon.

EUR/USD Could Be Supported By 200-Hour SMA

During Tuesday's trading session, the European Single Currency surged to the 1.1300 level by the help of the weekly PP support level at 1.1265. On Wednesday morning, the rate was trading above the 200-hour simple moving average at the 1.1291 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, it seems that the currency exchange rate might surge to the 1.3200 level. Besides, the 200-hour SMA should support the surge during the trading session.

On the other hand, today's US Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, US PPI data release at 12:30 GMT might depreciate European Single Currency against the US Dollar to push the rate towards the weekly PP at 1.1265 mark.

GBP/USD Expects High Volatility

During Tuesday's trading session, the currency exchange rate had high volatility due to the United Kingdom Parliament's meeting on Brexit deal. On Wednesday morning, the rate was supported by the monthly PP to trade at the 1.3140 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate could pass through most of the technical indicators to end the trading session below the weekly pivot point at the 1.3000 level.

However, today's US Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, US PPI data release at 12:30 GMT might push the rate to break the weekly R1 at 1.3187 to trade at the 1.3200 level for the rest of the trading session.

USD/JPY Could Fall To 111.00

During Tuesday's trading session, the 55-hour simple moving average supported the currency exchange rate to keep the rate to stay at 111.20. On Wednesday morning, the rate broke the resistance of the 100-hour SMA to trade at the 111.32 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, it is expected that the 55-hour and the 100-hour SMAs will support the rate to break the resistance of the weekly pivot point at 111.37. If the rate breaks the resistance level, then it will end the trading session at the 111.40 level.

However, today's US Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, US PPI data release at 12:30 GMT could push the rate fall to 111.00. Be aware!

XAU/USD Follows Predictions

During Tuesday's session, the yellow metal broke the medium pattern to end the trading session at the 1,300.00 level as it was predicted! On Wednesday morning, gold surged to the 1,308.57 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, it is expected that the yellow metal will trade sideways at the 1,310.00 level.

However, today's US Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, US PPI data release at 12:30 GMT might push gold towards the monthly pivot point at the 1,321.03 mark.

EUR/JPY Aims For 200-Hour SMA

The Eurozone single currency appreciated about 0.60% in values against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. The currency pair tested the upper boundary the newly formed ascending channel pattern at 125.73 during Tuesday's trading session.

The exchange rate breached a support level formed by the weekly pivot point at 125.52 during the European session on Wednesday.

As for the near future, it is likely that the currency exchange rate aims for the 200-hour simple moving average at 125.97 within this session.

AUD/USD Stranded Between SMAs

The Australian Dollar depreciated about 0.53% against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The decline was stopped by a support level set by the weekly pivot point at 0.7054 at the end of yesterday's trading session.

Technical indicators flash sell signals on the daily time frame chart. Most likely, the decline of the currency exchange rate could continue during the following trading session.

However, the 100-hour simple moving average at 0.7049 could hinder such decline within this session.

USD/CAD Decline Likely To Continue

The US Dollar depreciated about 0.50% against the Canadian Dollar on Tuesday. The currency pair tested the 200-hour simple moving average at 1.3355 during Tuesday's trading session.

Everything being equal, it is likely that the USD/CAD currency pair will continue its decline in the descending channel pattern during the following trading session. Moreover, the 200-hour SMA is providing resistance for the pair at 1.3368.

On the other hand, the currency exchange rate could reverse from the current price level at 1.3364 and aim for a resistance cluster at 1.3388.

NZD/USD Awaits Macroeconomic Data Releases

During Tuesday's trading session, the New Zealand Dollar depreciated about 0.56% in values against the US Dollar. The decline was stopped by the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6841.

In regards to the near-term future, it is expected that the 50-hour SMA will push the NZD/USD exchange rate to break a junior ascending channel pattern during the following trading session.

Meanwhile, today's macroeconomic data releases; namely, the US PPI and Core PPI data releases at 12:30 GMT might support the Kiwi to appreciate against the Greenback towards the 0.6879 mark.

EUR/USD Outlook: Extended Recovery Eyes Next Key Barrier At 1.1326

The Euro extends recovery into fourth straight day and probes through 1.1297 barrier (10SMA / 50% of 1.1419/1.1176 bear-leg).

Positive near-term sentiment keeps focus shifted higher, with bullish signal on Tuesday’s close above double-Fibo barrier at 1.1270, adding to positive outlook.

Improving momentum studies support the action which needs clear break above 10SMA for attack next pivotal double-Fibo barrier at 1.1326 (38.2% of 1.1569/1.1176 / 61.8% of 1.1419/1.1176), close above which would confirm reversal and expose converged 55/100SMA’s (1.1367/69).

Daily cloud twists tomorrow (1.1418) and could also be magnetic.

Caution on failure to clearly break 10SMA that would risk retest of broken pivot at 1.1270, close below which would weaken near-term structure and signal lower top formation.

Res: 1.1305, 1.1315, 1.1326, 1.1369
Sup: 1.1270, 1.1252, 1.1234, 1.1186