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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3378; (P) 1.3409; (R1) 1.3426; More...

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3467 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 1.3301 support to bring another rally. Corrective fall from 1.3664 has completed at 1.3068 already. Break of 1.3467 will target 1.3664 resistance then 1.3685 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3139) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.48; (P) 145.49; (R1) 147.26; More...

GBP/JPY rebounded strongly after pull back from 148.57 finished at 143.72. More importantly, current development suggests that rebound from 131.51 is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 148.75 first. Break will target 149.48 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 143.72 will resume the pull back from 148.57 to 141.00 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it's the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above. However, firm break of 141.00 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 131.51 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.62; (P) 124.91; (R1) 125.36; More....

EUR/JPY's break of 125.34 minor resistance argues that pull back from 127.50 has completed at 124.27, after defending 124.23 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 124.10).Ner term bullishness is so far retained. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 127.50 resistance first. On the downside, however, decisive break of 124.10/23 should confirm completion of whole rebound from 118.61. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 61.8% retracement at 122.01 and below. In this case, the chance of resuming larger down trend will also increase.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that medium term decline from 137.49 (2018 high) has completed with three waves down to 118.62 already. Decisive break of 133.12 resistance will confirm this bullish case. And whole up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) might resume through 137.49 in that case. On the downside, break of 124.23 support will invalidate this case. And in such case, the down trend from 137.49 could possibly resume through 118.62.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1330; (P) 1.1351; (R1) 1.1386; More...

EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after drawing support from 1.1310. But it's staying well below 1.1444 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could be seen. As long as 1.1310 support holds, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 and target 1.1501 key resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1310 will indicate completion of the rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5875; (P) 1.5927; (R1) 1.5958; More....

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5721 and intraday bias remains neutral. The fall from 1.6765 is probably still in progress. Break of 1.5721 low will extend the decline and target 1.5346 support. On the upside, above 1.6122 will resume the corrective rise from 1.5721.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8497; (P) 0.8587; (R1) 0.8640; More...

EUR/GBP drops sharply to as low as 0.8474 so far. The break of 0.8529 confirms resumption of recent decline. Intraday bias is back to the downside for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, break of 0.8676 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline is now targeting 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Sterling made a massive come back and is trading as the strongest one for today, as boosted by breakthrough in Brexit. At least, UK Prime Minister Theresa May believe she got important legally binding changes that's adequate to satisfy the parliament. The Pound could be given further lift ahead if more positive comments come in. For now, New Zealand Dollar is trading as the second strongest, followed by Euro. Meanwhile, Yen is now the weakest one as risk appetite staged in strong come back. But Loonie and Australian are the second and third weakest.

Technically, EUR/GBP's break of 0.8529 support confirms resumption of fall from 0.9101 as well as medium term down trend from 0.9305. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY would likely have a take on 1.3350 and 148.57 resistance respectively with current rebound. EUR/JPY's break of 125.34 minor resistance suggests that it's defended 124.23 key support and more upside would likely be seen, even though it's too early to call for rally resumption. Dollar is staying in near term consolidation against others, including Euro, Swiss, Yen, Aussie and Loonnie. The corrective retreats could end any time, together or separately. That could depend on CPI reading from the US.

In other markets, currently, Nikkei is trading up 1.94%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.45%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.99%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.02%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.001 at -0.034. Overnight, DOW rose 0.79%. S&P 500 rose 1.47%. NASDAQ rose 2.02%. 10-year yield rose 0.028 to 2.643.

Sterling jumps as May got legally binding changes to Brexit deal

Sterling jumped broadly and remains firm after UK Prime Minister Theresa May secured "legally binding" changes to the Brexit deal after meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France late Monday. May will now go into today's meaningful vote with nervous hope that the deal would be approved and pave the way to an orderly Brexit. Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticized as usual that May's negotiations had "failed" without "anything approaching the changes" she promised the Parliament. But it would be the legal advice from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, which will be published before the vote, that holds the fate of the updated deal.

Two important agreements were agreed that could "strengthen and improve" both the withdrawal agrement. The most important one is a "joint legally binding instrument." May believed it could be used to start a "formal dispute" against EU if it tried to keep UK into the backstop indefinitely. And under ruling of an arbitration panel, UK would have "the right to enact a unilateral, proportionate suspension of its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement"

Secondly, there is another "joint statement" adding to the political declaration. A specific negotiating track would be established given both sides' to work "at speed" on an agreement by end of 2020 to avoid triggering the Irish backstop. Thirdly, May will put forward a "unilateral declaration" to outline the UK's position that there was nothing to prevent it from leaving the backstop arrangement if discussions on a future relationship with the EU break down and there is no prospect on an agreement.

EU Juncker: No third chance, no further interpretations or assurance, this deal or no Brexit

After giving May the needed "meaningful clarifications and legal guarantees" on Irish backstop, Juncker warned in a joint press conference that "there will be no third chance". He said "it is in this cooperative spirit today that Theresa May and I agreed on a joint legally binding instrument relating to Withdrawal Agreement. The instrument provides meaningful clarifications and legal guarantees on the nature of the backstop."

But he warned that "there will be no third chance, "there will be no further interpretations of the interpretations, no further assurances of the re-assurances – if the meaningful vote tomorrow fails." "The choice is clear: it is this deal, or Brexit may not happen at all. Let's bring the UK's withdrawal to an orderly end. We owe it to history," Juncker added.

Australia business conditions and confidence dropped, home loans contracted further

Australia NAB Business Conditions dropped to 4 in February, down from 7 and missed expectation of 5. Business Confidence dropped to 2, down from 4 and missed expectation of 3. Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist said "conditions declined in February to below average levels – with profitability and trading now below average." Employment index "remained resilient" but that is "likely reflecting that labour demand decisions typically lag economic activity." Forward looking indicates point to an "ongoing weakness in business conditions" And, "this may have important implications for both future investment and employment decisions of business." The survey suggests "little improvement" in Q1 and "some further growing risks to our outlook for business investment in 2019". Also from Australia, home loans dropped -2.6% mom in January, worse than expectation of -2.0%.

Looking ahead - UK data, Brexit and US CPI to dominate

UK meaningful vote on Brexit is the key event for today. And ahead of that, all eyes will be on Attorney General Geoffrey Cox's advice on the revised deal. At the same time, a bunch on important data will be featured in UK too, including January GDP, trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production. Later in the day, US CPI inflation will take the limelight.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8497; (P) 0.8587; (R1) 0.8640; More...

EUR/GBP drops sharply to as low as 0.8474 so far. The break of 0.8529 confirms resumption of recent decline. Intraday bias is back to the downside for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, break of 0.8676 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline is now targeting 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

Australia NAB Business Conditions dropped to 4 in February, down from 7 and missed expectation of 5. Business Confidence dropped to 2, down from 4 and missed expectation of 3. Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist said "conditions declined in February to below average levels – with profitability and trading now below average." Employment index "remained resilient" but that is "likely reflecting that labour demand decisions typically lag economic activity."

Forward looking indicates point to an "ongoing weakness in business conditions" And, "this may have important implications for both future investment and employment decisions of business." The survey suggests "little improvement" in Q1 and "some further growing risks to our outlook for business investment in 2019"

Also from Australia, home loans dropped -2.6% mom in January, worse than expectation of -2.0%.

Owner-occupiers (no.) –1.2%mth, –13.6%yr (f/c –2%). Investors (value): –4.1%mth, –28.6%yr. Total (value): –2.1%mth, –20.6%yr (all figs ex-refi).

Housing finance approvals posted a further decline in Jan, albeit a slightly milder one than in previous months for owner occupiers.

The total number of owner occupier loan approvals ex refi declined 1.2%mth, slightly better than the consensus forecasts of a 2% decline. As always, January housing data should be treated with caution due to the summer holiday disruptions. Approvals are still weak on a year ago, down 13.6%. Notably, what was initially an investor-led cycle is now seeing clear weakness in owner occupier activity – both the value and number of loans.

The value of investor loans ex refi posted a larger 4.1%mth fall, this component showing no real moderation, the decline in line with falls over the previous five monnths. The monthly value of loans to this segment is now down 28.6%yr.

The combined total value of housing finance approvals across both owner occupier and investor segments (and excluding refi) declined 2.1%mth to be down 20.6%yr.

Construction finance approvals fared a little better, dipping just 0.2% in the month but still down over 15%yr. Approvals for the purchase of newly built dwellings, including 'off the plan apartment sales' were down sharply though, –9.5%mth, –27.6%yr and a 4yr low.

By state the number of owner occupier approvals excl refi showed the biggest falls in NSW (–4.9%mth, –18.3%r) and Qld (–2.4%mth, –16.6%yr), with approvals down only 0.7%mth in WA and SA, and up slighly in Vic (+0.4%mth, –15.4%yr) and Tas (+2.4%mth, +10.6%yr), the latter the only state seeing gains on a year ago.

Overall, the January update was soft but not quite as soft as expected for owner occupier activity. However, given the less reliable nature of January housing data this is not enough evidence to signal a shift in the clear weakening trend over the second half of 2018.

Other more recent market indicators suggest weak conditions have extended into the new year. Auction clearance rates have been around the low 50s for Sydney and and high 40s for Melbourne. As noted in our recent article, both markets are seeing abnormally high pre-auction withdrawal rates at the moment. Adjusting for this (and allowing for preliminary and seasonal bias), the latest weekly clearance rates are around 48% for Sydney and 46% for Melbourne. While low, these are somewhat improved from reads late last year which were in the 30s and low 40s respectively.

EURJPY has ended the cycle from Jan 3, 2019 low at 127.5. We label this rally from Jan 3 to March 1, 2019 as wave ((X)). This means the pair is in the initial stage of turning lower and eventually can break below Jan 3, 2019 low (118.51). At minimum, the pair should be correcting the cycle from 1/3 low in larger 3 swing. The first swing ended at 124.25 on March 8 as wave ((i)). The internal of wave ((i)) takes the form of as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 127.5, wave (i) ended at 126.14 and wave (ii) ended at 126.53. Pair then declined in wave (iii) to 124.65, and bounce to 125.02 ended wave (iv). The last push lower to 124.25 ended wave (v) of ((i)).

Wave ((ii)) bounce is currently in progress to correct the decline from March 1 high (127.5) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 124.25, wave (w) ended at 125.2 and wave (x) ended at 124.78. Wave (y) of ((ii)) is expected to see sellers at 125,75 – 126.3 blue box area and pair can either resume to new low from here or pullback in 3 waves at least. As far as pivot at 127.5 high stays intact, expect pair to see sellers in 3, 7, 11 swing and extends lower.

1 Hour EURJPY Elliott Wave Chart